yorkyu.eth CFA,FRM

Crypto Quantitative and Fundamental; News/Markets/Industry Analysis; Bitcoin Maximalist in the making.

[yorkyu.eth CFA,FRM @Yorcifer]

Lost $50k on this trade in 2018. Was definitely a lesson.

[金融世界 Financial World @FinWorld]

有一种死法叫死于捡钱太容易。2018年之前，做空VIX恐慌指数是全球最顶级的套利生意，不用加杠杆都能年化收益50%，加上保证金甚至能翻五倍。那时候全市场都陷入了一种低波动共识的幻觉，觉得只要世界不毁灭，做空波动率就是永远的摇钱树。直到2月5日，VIX一夜之间从17暴涨到37，那个曾经两年翻了数倍的明星产品XIV直接原地清算，无数中产账户在睡梦中被彻底抹平。

这不仅仅是暴跌，这是一场由于负Gamma 效应引发的非线性踩踏。当指数跌破临界点，那些做空波动率的巨头为了对冲风险，必须像疯了一样卖出更多股票期货，这就像在冰冷的滑梯上推了一把，越滑越快直到爆仓。这和 2024年初A股雪球产品的集体敲入本质上是同一种绝症：低估了尾部风险，迷信了线性外推。当一个产品看起来完美到不像话，甚至收益率远超无风险利���且回撤极小时，它通常就是专门为你准备的收割陷阱。

金融市场最残酷的真相是幸存者偏差。很多长期收益率惊人的产品，仅仅是因为它们隐藏的那个归零风险几十年才触发一次。一致性交易是系统性风险的终极来源，而大家之所以蜂拥而至，正是因为赚钱的理由听起来无懈可击。在这个衍生品横行的时代，如果你看不懂你的收益到底是从谁兜里掏出来的，那么你的本金大概率就是别人最后的晚餐。

[yorkyu.eth CFA,FRM @Yorcifer]

Got my Obsidian card from @BiltRewards and the credit limit is only 5K, which is below my monthly rent payment. Called the number on the back of the card, say they can’t increase the limit and gave me a number to their “bilt escalation” team, who claimed only the issuing bank can do that. Quite a frustration. As intermediaries Bilt should help handle this!

[yorkyu.eth CFA,FRM @Yorcifer]

@nft_hu @grok is it real?

[yorkyu.eth CFA,FRM @Yorcifer]

@binance 9^58= 22185312344622607535965183080365494317672538611578408721

[MarylandHODL (aka The Transition) @MarylandHODL21]

https://t.co/19EgCtgKx4

[yorkyu.eth CFA,FRM @Yorcifer]

Bull runs from here

[CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance]

Watching #BNB go from $0.10 ICO price 8 years ago to today's $1000 is something words cannot explain.

I, not representing any entity or title, as just a community member and a #BNB holder, thank everyone in the #BNB and crypto ecosystem, for your support.

We had our challenges along the way, but we worked hard, we built, and we held.

It's truly a community effort!

This is just the beginning. To the next 10000x together! 🤝🤝🤝🤝🙏🙏🙏🙏

[yorkyu.eth CFA,FRM @Yorcifer]

Bitcoin first reached $1,000 on 11/28, 2013. Then $10,000 on 11/28, 2017. If history repeats, $100,000 on 11/28 again?

[yorkyu.eth CFA,FRM @Yorcifer]

Finally!

[SEC Chair Gary Gensler Archive @GenslerArchive]

On January 20, 2025 I will be stepping down as @SECGov Chair.

A thread 🧵⬇️

[yorkyu.eth CFA,FRM @Yorcifer]

There’s still a long way for Bitcoin to be the risk off “ digital gold”.

[yorkyu.eth CFA,FRM @Yorcifer]

Last trading day of the H1 of the year. Fully positioned in crypto. Looking forward to revisit towards year end.

[Thomas Fahrer @thomas_fahrer]

Believe in #Bitcoin even when it feels like nobody else does.

That's how you win.

[Stockmoney Lizards @StockmoneyL]

#Bitcoin

this is a potential roadmap for the current cycle. As we stated before, we believe we are in a mid-term correction right now that could take us to mid-/low 50ks.

The rest of the year should lead to another pump fueld by continued institutional buying, halving itself and continued adoption.

Summer times are usually boring and sideways / correction months. Q4 should once more be a very strong quarter, potentially lifting uns above 100k.

Good times ahead. Don't get discouraged by pullbacks. These are normal and necessary for a healthy chart.

[yorkyu.eth CFA,FRM @Yorcifer]

Happy Bitcoin halving day! #wagmi

[yorkyu.eth CFA,FRM @Yorcifer]

No, ETH isn’t suddenly a security now https://t.co/wF32XiXFGZ via @blockworks

[yorkyu.eth CFA,FRM @Yorcifer]

Crypto over-reacting to Iran attacking Israel. Don’t think it’s gonna develop into all out war, just controlled retaliations. However midterm prospect for the market is still dim as halving is near and generally followed by corrections. Perfect timing for accumulation✌️

[yorkyu.eth CFA,FRM @Yorcifer]

BTC's price trough to peak multiples in past cycles--

2012: $11 -> $1077 98x
2016: $210 ->$19.6K 94x
2020: $3.5K -> $69K 20x
2024: $16.5K -> ? ?

What will be the multiple this time? IMO its likely 12-15x leading to peak valuation at $200K-$250K

[pedma @pedma7]

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No more wasting 100's of hours building code from scratch for bad ideas.

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