掬矢吉水

初心者｜ယိုရှီမီ ကီကုယာ

[掬矢吉水 @ysmx]

nostrベースの分散型Slack with AIエージェント基盤
https://t.co/WtykPIKrxq

[掬矢吉水 @ysmx]

https://t.co/0AX54vnT34
訓練時のモデル内部の品質保証は外から見える指標と乖離しうる

[掬矢吉水 @ysmx]

まるでマルチレイヤーサイクルの残差ループ

[ÉKRITS / エクリ @ekrits]

"LLMとの対話では、確かめるよりも前に接地が起きる。…やりとりに揺れがあっても、戻れる余地が確保されていて、矛盾を指摘すると、それを畳み込むように修復される。時間の経過のなかで「差分」が検出され、それが「持続」して蓄積され、どこかで「回収」される"
https://t.co/Kgzn20ZlEa

[ÉKRITS / エクリ @ekrits]

"LLMとの対話では、確かめるよりも前に接地が起きる。…やりとりに揺れがあっても、戻れる余地が確保されていて、矛盾を指摘すると、それを畳み込むように修復される。時間の経過のなかで「差分」が検出され、それが「持続」して蓄積され、どこかで「回収」される"
https://t.co/Kgzn20ZlEa

[掬矢吉水 @ysmx]

AppleOS 27はAqua UIのアップグレードっぽい

[掬矢吉水 @ysmx]

それ無しにはその物が存在し得ない性質に直感的に気づく瞬間がある

[掬矢吉水 @ysmx]

VWのマイクロバスがとっても良い

[Pato González 🦆 @patog7]

La siguiente versión de macOS se llama…

Golden Gate! 🌉
#WWDC

[掬矢吉水 @ysmx]

https://t.co/bDDtd0y4Ga

[掬矢吉水 @ysmx]

大域的な迷いの維持が民主主義の真価。迷いを持たない存在としてのAIがそこに加わるとき何が起きるか

[掬矢吉水 @ysmx]

ミノフスキー粒子の散布後に有視界戦闘とモビルスーツが「必然」として出現したように、AIの遍在後に必然として出現する社会形態があるような気がする

[掬矢吉水 @ysmx]

Appleアツイ

[掬矢吉水 @ysmx]

エンジン音のしないフェラーリは想像できない

[掬矢吉水 @ysmx]

戦国期に川中島が何度も戦場になったのは、単なる平野ではなく、山岳水力圏と日本海物流圏を結ぶ、巨大な流域結節点であり、信濃川水系全体の要衝だから。新たな電力網再構築によって川中島は再び輝く。

[掬矢吉水 @ysmx]

水力発電のダムは位置エネルギー充電池で、設備寿命は長く、比較的高EROI。これを担保にして行政を自律維持圏を基本単位とする分散ネットワークに変更。人口5万人〜30万人。現在の市町村より大きく県よりは小さい程度。生活自治区と自律維持圏の小政府を持つ。

[掬矢吉水 @ysmx]

電気と海運の組み合わせ。港を電力拠点にし、船は移動蓄電池とし、単なる輸送機械ではなく、電力網の延長とする。自律自治圏は個別にカスタマイズされた税制の自由を持ち、電力・水・医療・通信・物流の維持に使える。近代国家の均質な国土管理から、エネルギーと物流を握る小領域の連合体へ戻る運動。

[掬矢吉水 @ysmx]

資源制約付き完全電化社会で最良のモノかどうか。熱機関は小回りが効いて便利だがエネルギー変換時の損失が大きい。これから世界が本格的なEROI低下に向かう最中、高効率で持続可能性があるものへと、競争の対象は変化した。エネルギーロスの大きさは、すでにハイブランドの価値観として厳しい。

[Robert Scoble @Scobleizer]

"You aren't getting it," a friend who lives in China told me after I said the new Ferrari is ugly.

"This is gonna sell well with China's new rich."

But why is a story of changing attitudes amongst car buyers, particularly in China.

In a world where everyone around you is driving a new electric car, which is true in many Chinese cities now, showing up with a loud gas car just doesn't fit in anymore.

Imagine you are a new rich factory owner in Shanghai.

Do you want to drive around in a loud Ferrari, like I dreamed about doing when I was a kid?

No.

Chinese culture is about fitting in, about caring what everyone else thinks.

Worse, in China they are going electric so fast that you can see the writing on the wall for gas. Soon gas stations will disappear altogether in major cities.

And cars that pollute and put fumes into the air are already being seen as artifacts of an age that needs to die quickly, particularly in cities with 40 million people.

Ferrari's sales are way down in China. New car brands there like @Xiaomi, @XPENG_Global, @NIOGlobal, @BYDCompany, and @HongqiGlobal are taking share with vehicles that have much more innovation than even this new Ferrari has.

What are my credentials to talk about Ferrari? Well, I've studied automotive innovation my whole life. Audi taught me to race. I had the first ride in the Fiat 500, the BMW i3, the Tesla Roadster, the first Mercedes AI car, and a few others. Have hung out with many billionaires who have Ferraris, went on a famous car rally with such last year to study buyers of super cars, and car collectors, among other things. And I did consumer research about attitudes toward new innovations, like autonomy, around the world.

But it goes deeper than just China, which buys more cars that USA and Europe combined.

Ferrari is run by people who love to drive and love to drive gas cars with loud, big, engines. In USA that makes sense. My friend Scott Jordan, who owns a clothing company in Sun Valley, Idaho, has one, and within a few minutes from his home he can be on some of the best driving roads in the world.

We argue about cars all the time, and he probably never will buy a Tesla. Loves the sound the Ferrari makes. And the design of the hand stitched leather dash. He hates this new Ferrari. Could never see himself in one.

But his counterpart in China? Will never get onto a pretty road. When I was last in Shanghai I drove for hours and never stopped seeing high rise buildings with stop and go traffic. Americans can't grok that.

They don't want a dirty, gas, car, that makes a lot of noise in China. All traditional luxury brands (another way for saying $500,000 or more for a car) are seeing sales declines for this reason.

They also get on race tracks far less frequently than we can here in America. Which is where you can really enjoy a Ferrari.

In fact, the luxury brands are more of a club than buying a car. I once hung out with the Bugatti owners from around the world (one of the benefits of living within walking distance of the Half Moon Bay Ritz Carlton). They told me that it is a club and that Bugatti flies their cars around the world for a variety of driving experiences. Makes sense, the last thing a billionaire wants to hear while on vacation is a pitch for a new startup, or someone begging for money (same thing, really). So they have a club experience that keeps them separated from those kinds.

The Chinese buyer cares more about innovation than those of us in USA do. You see this in their vehicles, which have big huge screens covering the dash, and seats that rub their backs, and even suspensions that "hop" over potholes, not to mention autonomy that drives them everywhere in stop and go traffic.

It's one reason why China's government has kept Tesla from really turning on its autonomy, which is slightly ahead of the Chinese brands. As a Tesla investor I am watching that closely.

Speaking of Tesla, its new Roadster that we should see "within months" according to @elonmusk and his main designer @woodhaus2, should capture the world's attention, and especially the new rich in China.

But will it be allowed into China in a world where USA doesn't allow Chinese cars to be imported here? The answer to that question is way above my pay grade.

But if it were, it'd be a massive competitor to this new Ferrari.

Why?

Well, Ferrari's innovation just isn't there for this new consumer. It doesn't self drive. Its screens are smaller than any of those new Chinese brands, many of which started out making smartphones and other consumer electronics.

And that leads to this design that is rightfully getting derided.

Ferrari doesn't like being pushed into this new world of electric, screens, and autonomy. If it could it'd go back to an all-analog car, which is what most of the buyers of Ferrari like, taking them back to their childhood.

I can just imagine what Jony Ive had to do to come up with even the design he was able to ship here.

Consumers used to like buttons. Old people, particularly billionaires, still do. Takes them back to familiarity and tactile senses. They still talk about how much they love the buttons and knobs in their old cars.

But the new Chinese consumers grew up with smartphones and iPads you can touch. Many of them carry around @Huawei triple fold phones, that, when unfolded look like an iPad. We don't have those in America yet and Apple is rumored to be bringing a single fold device to America later this year.

Such a consumer is more impressed by big screens and automation than loud engines and fast speeds.

But the new rich want to stand out. Often they are running factories or tech companies where most of the engineers have Teslas or one of the new Chinese brands. How do they stand out?

Roll up in one of these.

And now you understand why the design of this car is so ugly. Ferrari doesn't want its traditional consumer to buy it. And didn't want a mind-blowing aggressive design that would make its traditional customer pissed that it was "going electric."

It's all about trying to regain share in China.

[Yuji Shibasaki＠Photo @Yuji_48]

夕暮れ時に水を張った田んぼを駆け抜ける福島県のJR水郡線。まるで千と千尋の世界のようでした。