Ranvijay

📖

[Killa @KillaXBT]

If it wasn't obvious already, I have a position in $SPCX.

Yes, it's overvalued.
Yes, it's massively inflated.
Yes, the hype is insane.

And yes, everyone seems to be scrambling to get exposure.

Rather than trying to justify it purely from a revenue or net profit perspective, you need to understand the current market dynamics.

Only around 4% of the float is publicly trading, with roughly 96% locked up until the first major unlock in August. At the same time, this is arguably the most hyped IPO we have ever seen. Right now, demand appears to be significantly outweighing supply.

My thesis is fairly simple, setups like this often create the perfect environment for aggressive squeezes. There are plenty of people shorting it purely because it's fundamentally overvalued, which, to be fair, it is.

But when demand massively outweighs available supply, fundamentals can take a back seat for a lot longer than people expect.

The problem is that when everyone wants exposure and only a small fraction of shares are available, price can move far beyond what most people think is reasonable.

I could be completely wrong, and if I am, I'll just end up holding more $SPCX for the next few years. But what we're seeing here feels fairly unique, a bubble on top of a bubble.

Eventually, every bubble bursts. But with only 4% of the float currently trading, I don't think this thing is about to die anytime soon.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

The 6 month candle closes in 16 days from now.

If you know, you know... $BTC

You can clearly see what happens after we print 2 red six month candles. 😉

[Ranvijay @yt_helloween]

@XBTkaz Longed from 63K hope you are right 👍🏻

[Kaz @XBTkaz]

$BTC

Here's my playbook for the next 1-3 weeks.

We got FOMC coming up on 17th June and the BOJ rate hikes on 16th June.

So what I am expecting is for price to pump to qO (68k) into 16th-17th June,

Then form the Lower High there, and start the dump towards low 50s.

Though in the case of Max Extension (price pumping to 70-72k),

We might form the Lower Highs on 22nd June.

It's just a numerological date that I am testing out based on my backtested data,

And I could be wrong on the timing but regarding price I am very sure if we max extend, its gonna be upto 70-72k,

And that would be it, anything above 70k is a free short imo.

Though I will start looking for shorts from 66k as it's very possible for us to frontrun qO,

Because a lot of people are targeting the same level and usually when a certain level becomes retail.

Price either frontruns it (66k) or pierces through it (70k).

If we go higher, I will just DCA into my Swing Short.

I will create another post analyzing every BOJ rate hike and how it affected BTC soon.

Overall, my current plan is for BTC to pump first, clear the upside liquidity cluster,

Then form the Lower High there and start dumping towards the bottom of this bear market,

Which I think is gonna be around 49k-55k.

Though I will start adding to longs from the moment price goes sub 60k.

But if we get the Low 50s, I will add more aggressively and go all in.

Idc if people's mathematical bottom says we are going to 44k or 39k,

I am fine with the 20-30% drawdown, cuz the upside is massive, and I am talking about a 200% pump,

And if you compare the upside with the drawdown, you will see the RR is insane,

So I am completely willing to take the risk, if BTC goes down I go down with it.

[Ranvijay @yt_helloween]

@XBTkaz I saw you call the top at 80k. So I will trust you this time as well.

[Kaz @XBTkaz]

$BTC

FOMC Analysis of this entire bear market,

We had 7 FOMC(s) this bear market, with 8th one approaching,

Out of those 7, we have dumped 6/7 times on the opening,

With only previous FOMC that pumped on the opening and dumped later as we were expecting it to.

Which clearly shows that there's a very high chance we dump on the next one as well (17th June).

I think 17th is gonna mark the lower high of this range and we will start dumping afterwards,

I am targeting for price to reach Low 50s after we form the lower high.

Also, the max extension that I can see price reach is 68-70k,

So, anything above 70k is a free short with targets around Low 50s.

Though, I will personally start adding to shorts below qO and DCA if we go higher, this is to avoid getting frontrun.

[Ranvijay @yt_helloween]

@XBTkaz Good analysis kaz mate. I want to ask some doubts how do I reach out to you ?

[Kaz @XBTkaz]

$BTC

My Current Market Thesis,

Price is ranging around 63k after bouncing from 61k.

If you read my previous post, I mentioned how the internals are weak and this pump is gonna be retraced,

And I still think that, thus I am TPing 50% here and leaving the rest for higher.

The first major resistance that's gonna come on our way is the monH (64.2k),

If you look at the liquidity level chart (given below),

You will see we got a liquidity cluster above us and as you all know price follows liquidity,

So it's very possible we get a sweep of monH and then dump.

I will be looking for scalp shorts around monH, if we get it.

We also got FOMC coming up on 17th june, and I am expecting that date to be the lower high.

So very much possible what could happen next is we retrace to 61.2k-62k, then pump back up to 66k (17th June).

We still cannot clearly say what's exactly gonna happen next,

As BTC is going hard on the ranges,

If you are disciplined enough, you can get good RRs scalping here,

Overall, rn I am looking for shorts if we go to monH.

We also got a decently big liquidity cluster around 58-60k,

Which is surely gonna get tested at some point, but probably not until we clear out liquidity above us.

There are a lot of bids placed around 56-60k,

So it's also a very strong level and is very likely gonna hold if we visit it.

Which is why if we go there, Imma open some big longs.

I am risk free on the current long trade, and observing how things play out from here.

If we go lower like we expect it to, that's would be fine by me and I will look for another long entry.

Though, if we go higher into monH then I will look for shorts from there.

[Kaz @XBTkaz]

$BTC

Current Trade + My Weekly Thesis,

Price is bouncing from the HVN, and the overall structure is still intact and bullish.

Currently we are in a low risk long from 61.6k,

Our second limit got frontrunned (posted on discord earlier).

I won't take anymore longs until 60k, and our first target for the long is 64.2k (monH),

Will be looking for Shorts if we get to 66k, and will DCA at qO (68.2k).

I am still expecting qO to be the Lower high and then dump from there all the way down to Low 50s (On HTF).

We got FOMC coming up on 17th June,

So it's very possible we get a pump into it and then dump afterwards after trapping retail (news event).

In short, you can expect us to top around 17th.

On LTF, Internals are also turning bullish with OI and CVDs going up.

If the current structure holds, I am expecting a pump to 63-64k today (NYO).

Overall price and structure are still in the favor of bulls, until proven otherwise.

HIGHER BEFORE LOWER.

[Ranvijay @yt_helloween]

@XBTkaz Longed at your level. now booked 50% thanks.

Keep up the good work

[Kaz @XBTkaz]

$BTC

Price came down to 61k and it held,

Currently price is recovering back up and is now sitting at 62.8k,

CVDs are improving from the lows, with perps continuously ticking up,

Spot is recovering aswell but is weak compared to perps (Divergence) and both CVDs are still in extreme negative.

Meanwhile OI is slowly declining as shorts partially cover,

There hasn't been any major liquidations yet aside from small shorts closing,

Overall, the move up is mainly derived by perps and shorts covering,

Meaning we could retrace the pump soon,

Though if we get spot buyers participating and spot CVD going up, with perps and OI rising alongside,

Then we are gonna go up and test higher levels and possibly break above monH (64.2k),

But in the case we don't see spot demand coming,

We are gonna go back to 61k and test the HVN again before any further move.

It's better to move the SL to entry rn,

Because if we go back to our entry then we are probably going even lower, where we can look for better entries.

[$0uL @spetsnaz_3]

longed $btc @ 61400, same setup🫴

[Kaz @XBTkaz]

$BTC

Price bounced from our demand zone but retraced the entire move back down,

We are still seeing rejection from the zone,

But the internals are not aligning + Buyers are not showing up,

If you see the perp and spot CVDs, they have been rolling over for a day now,

Currently price is forming a descending wedge type structure with OI ticking up slowly while price declines.

Meaning new shorts are adding up on the failed bounce,

We had minor long liquidations and potentially get more longs flushed into the CPI,

In the previous post we talked about how price could sweep the range lows (58-60k) if this support fails.

And looking at how things are we might test 60k soon,

The thing to notice here is that OI is keep on rising, and shorts are entering,

If CVDs keep on rolling like this, we are certainly gonna test 60k again,

Though if CVDs start to reverse from here, that would lead to a stronger squeeze cuz of the new shorts entering.

What I am doing now?

I closed my Swing Long above BE and will be staying flat for sometime, will observe how things are playing out.

I am looking for better long entries, if I get them, will take them for sure.

We got liquidity building below 60k, which has very high chance of getting tested,

So imo, it's better to stay flat and observe how things goes from here and then take decisions based on that, I personally wouldn't wanna long into a bearish orderflow.

If this goes straight up from here, that's fine to me.

[Ranvijay @yt_helloween]

@XBTkaz Looks good structure wise

[Kaz @XBTkaz]

$BTC

This is what I am looking for next,

Got in a small long from this zone, targeting straight for the sweep of pdH/monH.

The risk is low as I think we could still go lower + a lot of things are not aligning with my system.

Will be looking for major swing longs from 60k (pqL).

[Ted @TedPillows]

$BTC reclaimed the Feb 2026 lows.

The key level for Bitcoin is $65,000 here.

If BTC reclaims it, a rally towards the $67,000-$68,000 level could happen next.

Otherwise, Bitcoin will sweep the last week's lows again.

[Ted @TedPillows]

$BTC is trying to break above the $65,000 level but failed.

If Bitcoin reclaims this zone, a rally towards $68,000 could happen next.

Otherwise, BTC will drop towards $60,000 again.

[Ranvijay @yt_helloween]

@XBTkaz Love the details you provide in your posts. Underrated.

[Kaz @XBTkaz]

$BTC

My Current Market Thesis,

Price dumped to our 61k demand zone and now bouncing from it,

I am currently in a swing long and looking for 65-66k as my IDEAL TP,

Though I could TP Early around 64k, if the internals don't end up forming a bullish setup.

If you look at the liquidity level chart (given below), you will see that,

We still got decent liquidity on both sides.

On the upside, we got a liquidity cluster around 65-66k,

And on the downside, we got a liquidity cluster around 58-60k.

Also we got CPI coming up tomorrow, and price is pumping into it,

Whenever we see something like this, price usually reverses.

+ I got a pivot on 10th June, which means there's a high possibility we might retrace back again and hunt 58-60k first.

We got pdH and monH at 64.2k, so it's possible we sweep it then start dumping from our 10th pivot.

Those key levels, are one of the reason why I am looking to TP early into 64k, and flip to shorts (not sure yet).

Overall, I am still waiting to see how internals are gonna turn out to be.

Then make decisions based on that data.

[Ranvijay @yt_helloween]

@XBTkaz I think we could go lower so I will rather wait