Added more solana:CARDSccUMFKoPRZxt5vt3ksUbxEFEcnZ3H2pd3dKxYjp over the past week.
Token has underperformed due to:
- Focus on RH chain
- Biggest unlock to date: overlap of the previous unlocks (pre-seed) with new set of unlocks (seed, advisors and team) and an airdrop of $1.5M
I think capital rotates back to real revenue generating projects sooner or later and meanwhile the fundamentals have only gotten better.
Price is currently $0.15 with a $300M FDV. 38% of the token sits in the treasury and won’t be touched. If we exclude that, we’re looking at $186M FDV backed by:
- >$2M gross profit weekly, >$100M annualized
- Treasury: $28M on-chain, up from $9.5M in Q1, mostly graded card inventory.
- Total card value on the platform: $53.1M
- Omnivault: CC’s 100k sq ft vaulting facility in Montana
- 22.5M CARDS burned (~5% of float), every token bought back with USDC or earned through LP fees (not just burning random minted tokens)
Looking at the last unlocks: only ~10% of tokens have been sold and ~81% of tracked unlocked tokens are still unclaimed; the four largest contracts (I assume team allocation) claimed and sold nothing.
They’ve made it clear that token = equity. I’m assuming we’ve not seen many team sells since they know the business is way undervalued at the moment. This is not just some random pump and dump vapourware token, it's a real business. Also assuming a lot of the tokens are being saved for future team members.
With the previous unlocks and airdrop out of the way, I believe sell pressure for next unlocks will be far lower.
Biggest catalyst to date will launch in October: Ripmart.
No exact details on it yet, but per team comments and looking at the teasers it’s a:
- Whatnot competitor (whatnot just raised at $20B)
- Built on Collector Crypt rails; offering instant buybacks of the opened packs -> which whatnot does not offer. This will likely bring a lot more new supply on-chain
- This is their strategy to onboard web2 users.
The team has also expanded heavily past pokemon. One Piece and sport cards have been in huge demand, Riftbound, Dragon Ball and Watches have recently been launched as well. New UI and mobile app are being teased. And probably a lot more coming up they’re keeping under the radar.
Some other interesting data:
- Highest value ($600k) on-chain TCG sale every recorded (PSA 10 1st Edition Charizard) through CC
- >$1B in total gross revenue crossed a month ago (currently $1.14B)
- DAU still trending up
- Margins have remained steady
- 100% uptime for a year
- >9k shipments carrying close to 50k cards have been redeemed to 84 countries
- >20 partners using their white label API
All with only $22k in marketing spend, which is being ramped up as the focus is now on onboarding web2 users.
So, with todays fundamentals you’re looking at a business that does >$100M in gross profit a year, that owns a nearly 100k sq ft vaulting facility, has >$28M in the treasury, stated that token = equity, confirmed previous buybacks, burned 22.5M tokens (5% of float) sitting at $186M in FDV (excluding the 38% foundation tokens) and $60M circulating mcap.
No brainer.
If not obvious already, this is a long term hold for me.
Trade: Short TAO
Entry price: 282.44
Expected time horizon: Under 1 week
Thesis: Tao ran up with no apparent catalyst in the past few days. Probably insiders from TAO listing on Solana pumping the price. Either that or there is more good news coming and I have no idea.