Rebeliounaire

Bruin(●￣(ｴ)￣●)

[Rebeliounaire @yuskol77]

在多伦多上高中的时候，只要一杯奶茶，一块豪大大鸡排，我就能有很开心的一天。因为这两个东西都在华人mall里，离我很远，如果点外卖的话配送费手续费贵得都能再点一份了，所以我每次都自己坐bus去，省的钱给自己顺路买点面膜小挂件，哈哈。现在我随时能有这些东西，可再也不能那样开心了

[Rebeliounaire @yuskol77]

我走了一条很长的路，付出了很多时间精力金钱，但现在我迷茫了，我开始怀疑这条路是不是对的，甚至这里到底有没有路？我预想的结果是可能的吗，还是一切只是一场骗局？

[Rebeliounaire @yuskol77]

总是要这样对我，一个问题解决了就会有下一个问题，刚变好一点又立刻变得更糟。我什么都留不住，想要的东西也许会得到，但总是在很久以后一个我或许不再那么需要的时刻。我的人生，所有的东西，都像个笑话，笑我为何犯错，为何钻营那么多，还让自己落到这样的境地。当然，也许我本来就不想活。

[Rebeliounaire @yuskol77]

命运是什么，是很久以后你发现，有些东西不应该是那样，但当时能是其他样子吗？
我不想再说是谁对谁错了，人与人之间的关系就像一场循环，你先错，然后我也错，所以最后谁都不无辜，谁都有报应。

[Rebeliounaire @yuskol77]

但我也没有别的办法，我只能这样走下去，做一点努力，努力不了太多，因为我心态崩了，麻木了，我不想付出很多了，歇斯底里十来年，我也没换来好结果。接下来发生什么，我都无法应对了，爱来什么来什么吧，活不下去了我就去死吧，好吗？

[Rebeliounaire @yuskol77]

我感觉我心态有点麻了，已经不是崩了，是崩的不能再崩了，反正就是麻了，感觉这个世界不适合我，当然，也没有别的世界适合我，所以，我可能就不应该活着，如果你非要我活着，那就这样吧，随便吧，能干嘛干嘛吧，大家各有各的报应

[Rebeliounaire @yuskol77]

今天卖掉了我的最后一把客制化键盘，最贵的时候它要一万块，现在五千卖掉了。陪伴了我两年了吧，还跟我去美国，又背回来。其实我现在已经不用它了，但还是有点舍不得。用它写了多少篇论文？算了，这些都无所谓。这世界上没什么有所谓的。

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM JUST BROKE IN TOKYO

Japan’s 30-year bond yield hit 3.41% today. That number means nothing to you. Here’s why it should terrify you.

Japan owes 230% of everything it produces. It’s the most indebted nation in human history. For 35 years, they kept the lights on by borrowing at near-zero rates. That era ended this morning.

Here’s What Just Happened

Core inflation is running at 3.0%. Government bond yields are spiking to levels not seen since 1999. China just conducted its 25th military incursion near Japanese waters this year. Japan is now forced to spend 2% of GDP on defense … nearly 9 trillion yen annually.

The Bank of Japan is trapped between two impossible choices: raise rates and trigger a debt collapse, or keep rates low and watch inflation destroy savings. They chose door number two.

Why You Should Care

Every major bank, hedge fund, and institution on Earth has borrowed yen at cheap rates and invested it elsewhere for 30 years. This “carry trade” could be worth anywhere from $350 billion to $4 trillion. Nobody knows the real number because it’s hidden in derivatives.

When Japan’s system breaks, this money unwinds. Fast.

The last time we saw a preview … July 2024 … the Nikkei dropped 12.4% in a single day. The Nasdaq fell 13%. That was a small tremor. The earthquake is coming.

The Math Is Simple!

Japan’s government pays interest on $9 trillion in debt. Every 0.5% increase in rates costs them $45 billion annually. At current yields, debt service will consume 10% of all tax revenue. That’s the death spiral threshold.

The yen is trading at 157 to the dollar. If it strengthens to 152, the entire carry trade becomes unprofitable. Unwinding begins. Emerging market currencies could drop 10-15%. The Nasdaq could fall 12-20% as funds are forced to sell.

What Happens Next

December 18-19, the Bank of Japan meets. Markets are pricing 51% odds they raise rates another 0.25%. If they do, volatility explodes. If they don’t, inflation accelerates and the problem gets worse.

There is no way out. Japan’s fiscal dominance is now permanent. They must keep the yen weak to service their debt. This means the free money that powered global markets since 1990 is ending.

The Bottom Line

Interest rates worldwide are going up 0.5-1.0% permanently. Not because of inflation. Because the world’s largest creditor nation can no longer subsidize global growth.

Your mortgage, your car loan, your credit card … all repricing higher. Stock valuations built on cheap money … all compressing. The everything bubble … all deflating.

This is not a recession. This is a regime change. The largest liquidity engine in financial history just seized up, and most people won’t understand what happened until their portfolios are down 30%.

Tokyo broke the world today. You’ll feel it tomorrow.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Read the full data driven deep dive article -

https://t.co/enhJeYNeo1

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC

They really pulled off 2021 again & you had people calling for a super cycle 🤣

Don't shoot the messenger.

[Rebeliounaire @yuskol77]

以太坊均线走成这样，更像超级大跌的启动前
如果这里反弹再次超过3700的话，那今后就不会有大跌了，但是会在3500附近上下上下上下上下震荡很久

[Rebeliounaire @yuskol77]

听说现在已经不一样了
我还能回去吗

[Rebeliounaire @yuskol77]

我好像忘记了很多事
还好我不爱拍照，光是偶尔想起来就很难受，还看到照片可怎么办
永远怀念多伦多

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

My thoughts for the rest of 2025 and 2026

Lately, I’ve been less vocal about my mid and long-term predictions. I’ve mostly focused on the short-term. That’s because, over the years, I’ve come to believe that the best approach is to focus on current data and the next moves. To stay flexible. It’s all about forecasts vs. adaptability [https://t.co/0nmQyLlPpE]

But like everything in life, extremes rarely work. It can’t be 100% predictions, nor 0%. Same goes for adaptability. You need both. The key is finding the balance.

Still, this time it feels even more important to have some perspective about what could be coming next. Because if you’re not mentally or strategically prepared, the scale of what might unfold could truly catch you off guard.

Some of you will remember what I said back in 2023 and 2024. While my timing was off, the core thesis hasn’t changed. Let me explain:

During the 2020 COVID era, the Fed printed over 4 trillion USD to inject into the economy. It delayed the collapse, but didn’t solve anything. This was the start of a massive QE (Quantitative Easing) phase. Then, inflation hit, and the Fed had to reverse course. QT began (Quantitative Tightening), rates went up, and liquidity was pulled out. That’s been slowing down the economy for months.

Despite that, both #stocks and #BTC hit new highs. But now, interest rates are starting to come down. And historically, that’s been a sign that recession is on the way. I said this several times back in 2023 and 2024 [https://t.co/XCTSHoX6xw], [https://t.co/9UUlG20Nxd]

And this is what I mean when I say the inevitable is just being delayed: a major global reset. Not just any correction, but something comparable to 1929. A true depression. What many call “The Great Reset.” A shift towards a new system: digital economy, ISO 20022 standard, CBDCs… all of it. Estimated to unfold between late 2025 and early 2026.

Tariffs are just noise in the bigger picture. As Ray Dalio said a few days ago, they’re a distraction from what really matters [https://t.co/SODTk2zvQa]. And in my view, stronger events are coming that will bring sharper corrections.

-----

With that said, here’s how I see things across different timeframes:

Very short-term (next few days):

As I said recently, a rebound was expected, and we’re getting it. After the 90-day pause on tariffs, the market is reacting well. $BTC could move towards the $92k–$98k zone. Many altcoins could bounce 50%–100%.

Short-term (next few weeks):

Once resistance is hit, there’s a decent chance we’ll see another capitulation. Whether triggered by renewed tariff talk or something else (another pandemic scare, or escalating conflict), we’ll need to adapt as things develop. But the probability is high.

Medium-term (next few months, probably until September):

Overall, I expect a bullish trend. Whether after a potential shakeout event or directly from here, we could see some sort of altseason. Not as crazy as 2021, and definitely not like 2017. That won't happen until strong QE (probably 2027-2030).

Some alts might break highs, others won’t. But prices are now very oversold, and returns could be very good. Even if a black swan hits, that would only improve the accumulation zones forming since late March.

Mid / Long-term (late 2025 and 2026):

This is where things could get really ugly. Like I’ve said before, this “bull market” never felt like a real bull market. $BTC was pushed up artificially by ETFs and USDT/USDC minting. Meanwhile, many alts are still near their lows. This disconnect is concerning.

September might be a key pivot. If you look at the 2021 cycle, it’s very similar:

April–July 2021 = current February-April 2025

July–November 2021 = potentially late April to September 2025

November 2021 = bear market begins. Same could happen from September 2025 onward.

-----

We’ve never seen how #Bitcoin behaves during a real crisis, especially not a global recession/depression. If that happens, expect extreme volatility, and probably the worst part of the cycle.

This isn’t meant to discourage anyone. There will be opportunities, especially in the next few months. But it’s better to be ready than caught off guard. Most importantly: stay flexible.

I’ll be expanding on all this in the coming weeks. Breaking it down point by point, adding charts and deeper context.

Important: This is just my opinion. None of this is financial advice. Always do your own research.

[Rebeliounaire @yuskol77]

好像从一开始就觉得自己要以交易为生。让我感到快乐的工作只有画画，写小说，trading（。希望这样的生活可以一直拥有

[Rebeliounaire @yuskol77]

以太坊杀人事件

[Rebeliounaire @yuskol77]

牛逼我草，真爽啊，一句话让亿万市值为我跌一千刀