After two decades advising companies and sovereigns on how markets price consequential decisions, I’ve written a book about what happens after institutional attention moves on.
The most important consequences of major decisions arrive late, through systems no one was watching, long after the file has been closed. This is structural, not accidental.
Complex systems process change slowly, and the outcomes that reshape markets and policy develop during the period when everyone believes the work is done.
A government imposes sanctions that accomplish exactly what they were designed to accomplish. But the audience drawing the most durable conclusions turns out to be every other sovereign watching what can be frozen and under what conditions.
A central bank holds rates near zero for a decade, stabilizing the recovery it was meant to stabilize. The dependency that builds during that period makes the eventual normalization far more disruptive than the preceding stability suggested it would be. A regulatory agency approves a new painkiller whose label claims reduced potential for abuse. Two decades later, the opioid epidemic has killed more than five hundred thousand.
In each case, the immediate effect was visible, analyzed, and largely as anticipated. The delayed effect reshaped entire systems.
The Second Order Effects: How the World’s Most Consequential Forces Arrive Unseen examines seventeen cases across capital markets, geopolitics, and public policy.
Out May 20, 2026 - https://t.co/ySYRAg1mJp
NEW YORK FUCKING CITY!!!!!!!!! MAMDANI!!!!! BAGELS!!!!! BACON EGG N CHEESE!!!! BROOKLYN!!!!! THE BRONX!!!!! HARLEM!!!!!!! QUEENS!!!!!! BIGGIE!!!! TIMBS!!!! HALAL CART. BODEGA CATS. JAYWALKING. PIZZA!!!!! FUCK ERIC ADAMS!!!! WE ARE THE GREATEST CITY IN AMERICA!!!!!!
“Why argue with an Arsenal fan when you can just wait?” We waited. We won. We are champions of England - and we are just one game away from being crowned champions of Europe. Read my piece on what Arsenal means to me here: https://t.co/J6cg388mRH
KNICKS. SPURS. 1999 REMATCH.
THE NBA FINALS ARE OFFICIALLY SET!
🍿 New York returns to NBA Finals for the first time since 1999
🍿 San Antonio returns to NBA Finals for the first time since 2014
Game 1: Wednesday, June 3 at 8:30pm/et on ABC
This morning we are introducing COGE — the Commission on Government Efficiency. This Commission will find ways for our city to work smarter, faster, and more effectively for working people. New Yorkers deserve a city government as careful with their money as they are.