Sanjay

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@DsrPrivate this is pretty balanced and good imo

[Mojo @MrMojoRisinX]

There are a lot of posts today about the Goldman positioning report, and they read universally bullish (flagging the charts that are bullish). Part of the reason is that people are only sharing the bullish angle and the rest of the report are on the twitter cutting room floor.

The charts making the rounds cover US Equity Sentiment, Long/Short Performance, deleveraging episodes, Prime Book positioning, CTA systematic positioning, and others. Positioning has clearly improved. But the Goldman note went further and deeper, and provided reasons why this is not the all clear and why the structure of the market has not reset yet. I have not seen a single post showing both sides. I see a lot of book talking from the generals and know-it-alls, who gave zero warning before this market downdraft.

On realized correlation: "Historically, meaningful drawdowns tend to come with a sharp rise in realized correlation, broader participation and more indiscriminate selling. That is not what we are seeing. 1m realized correlation is still only ~20%, which is relatively low and suggests this has been a narrow leadership unwind rather than a true broad-market liquidation."

Breadth tells a similar story. Only ~11% of S&P constituents are oversold, far from the levels typically associated with durable bottoms.

Then there is the options market: "S&P 1m implied correlation is now in the 40s, roughly 2x realized levels. That gap typically resolves one of two ways: either realized volatility picks up to meet expectations, or volatility compresses and hedges bleed."

On the Mag 7: the report flags a dislocation in the volatility backdrop where they are trading at a discount to the rest of the S&P single stock universe. Goldman notes this is something they have really only seen once before, in March 2020.

On the macro: "Cyclicals vs. Defensives has not fallen all that much versus similar episodes, and dividend futures suggest that growth expectations have only been modestly revised lower. S&P 2027 dividend futures are down just ~3 to 3.5% from highs, versus materially larger moves during prior stress episodes: 10% in April 2025, 6% in March 2023, 8% in 2022, and ~45% during Covid. The market is still a long way from pricing a true recessionary hit."

On earnings: "2026 EPS estimates have actually risen ~3% over the past month, even as 10-year yields have surged ~50bp. The result has been multiple compression, not earnings downgrades. A rates-driven repricing, not a growth-driven one."

Their takeaway, which I have not seen in a single post: "Positioning has improved, but growth expectations have not reset. We have not seen full blown panic, but the options markets are bracing for it."

And the most important data point heading into month-end: dealers are now short roughly ~$7bn of S&P gamma, the 2nd most negative reading on record. The only comparable instance was January 20th, 2022, and that did not mark the bottom (they left this part out...). It preceded the largest VIX spike of the year just days later, even as SPX ultimately did not bottom until October. Btw, I am not saying we need to see this or that we indeed get it...but to buy a real dislocation in a single name security and/or index, you want Violence, not a slow bleed out (look at the software sector).

Goldman's bottom line: "We have reduced risk, but we have not fully cleared the market. The technicals are setting up for a bounce, but without a macro reset or a true panic flush, it is hard to have conviction it is the durable low."

When someone says they are seeing lots of opportunity right now, listen carefully. They are likely talking about names they already own. That is different from making a fresh market-level investment bet, which still feels premature.

There are trading opportunities here, and select investments in names where the work is already done. But sliding chips in as a broad market call is a different decision entirely, and the structure of this market has not reset enough to make it with conviction.

See posts on how to handle drawdowns, position block and portfolio hedging, etc.

Stay tuned.

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@darjohn25 sad to hear this and sad to see what nonsense you have to put up with. Your older posts have been super useful for me, regarding vol and your approach all aspects of it.
Is there a way we can exchange contact details - I’d love to reach out if you’re open to it.
If not, no problem, and thank you for sharing everything in the past 🙏

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@DsrPrivate The half life in terms of impact of these TACO’s is fading…

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@RedboxWire @DsrPrivate seems important

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@DsrPrivate @AnchuDrew Nearly 1% worth of hikes by EOY in UK is pretty scary

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@DsrPrivate You’re right, I have the strikes 2022 onwards only.
Was the collar a meaningful flow in 2020?

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@DsrPrivate Also - and I could be wrong - but I can’t see a single instance where we puked through the long put leg late in the quarter.

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@DsrPrivate I have it as 3580, SPX close that day was 3585
Just trying to check I have the right number!

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@DsrPrivate any view on the JHEQX at 6475 impacting flows next week? Or too early still?

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@BehavioralMacro Can you share a LT IV chart for it? Much harder to find data on this for Silver than Gold/equities etc.

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@DsrPrivate When do you see the 7k strike becoming a forceful magnet?

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@DsrPrivate You / Daniel see anything actionable on gold vol + spot ripping into major tops? GVZ already above 30 here

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@DsrPrivate I see it as 0.8x mNAV which seems too good to be true?

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@DsrPrivate Yes, as stated here https://t.co/so6FYx79ZX

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

Does below math look correct to you?

mNAV impact: Strive owns 5,886 BTC . At $115k per BTC, the BTC stash is worth about $676 million. With ~635 million shares outstanding and an ASST price of $0.95, the market cap is around $603 million, giving Strive a mNAV ratio of roughly 0.9× (i.e., the stock now trades at a slight discount to its Bitcoin holdings).
Adding Semler’s 5,021 BTC and issuing ~358.9 million new shares (21.05 shares × ~17.05 million SMLR shares) yields a combined ~994 million shares. At $0.95 per share the merged market cap would be about $945 million, while the combined 10,907 BTC would be worth roughly $1.25 billion, implying a merged mNAV ratio of ≈0.75×—a 25 % discount to the company’s Bitcoin value.

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@DsrPrivate Why?

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@DsrPrivate Any more thoughts on this? Underperforming BTC quite a bit?

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@DsrPrivate @stock_whisperer can you outline/walk it through?

[Sanjay @zealtrader]

@ap45337 @DsrPrivate @leticale Alpha YTD return of 14% above cash by September plus the beta returns YTD is pretty strong.

Not sure what more you expect but if you haven’t participated the same way then that’s on you.