ZeeSX

I test the trading strategies people share. Real rules, real costs, every result public. Live-tracked BTC system. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.

[ZeeSX @zeesx_]

Bitcoin research, driven by data. I test trading ideas with fixed rules and post what I find, including the ones that fail. I also track my own BTC system here, every signal in R after fees. No calls. Not financial advice; any decision you make is at your own risk.

[ZeeSX @zeesx_]

Without its 10 best days, Bitcoin's gain since June 2020 falls from +683% to +140%.

That's 10 of 2,337 days (Binance daily closes, 2 Jun 2020 to 25 Oct 2026).

4 of those 10 came in the 2022 bear market. The best days hide in the worst stretches.

[ZeeSX @zeesx_]

Buying oversold and selling at 70 sat out Bitcoin's biggest runs. Strategy Tested No. 01.

[ZeeSX @zeesx_]

I tested RSI 30/70 exactly as it's taught, on Bitcoin's daily chart, mid-2020 to Oct 2026, after fees.

60% of trades won. It still lost money.

2020–23: −5%. Holding BTC: +348%.
2024–26: +28%. Holding BTC: +95%.

[ZeeSX @zeesx_]

Closed: the 21 Oct signal stopped out on 22 Oct at −1.13R after fees. Live record since 11 Oct: 2 closed signals, both stops, −2.22R. Two trades say very little; the backtest had losing streaks of up to 4.

[ZeeSX @zeesx_]

Every long version of the break-and-retest I tested lost money on BTC from 2024 to now, after costs.

4 versions on 4H, rules and pass mark fixed before testing. Dropping the retest step improved results. Rejected.

Small sample: 2-8 trades a year, backtest only.

[ZeeSX @zeesx_]

In 2021, Bitcoin had 74 days that moved more than 5% open to close. In 2025 it had 14, and 2026 has 14 so far (291 days).

Binance BTCUSDT perpetual, daily UTC candles, Jan 2020 to 18 Oct 2026.

Big days have become far rarer. That describes the past, not the next move.

[ZeeSX @zeesx_]

Weekly log, 12-18 Oct: one signal closed, a BTC long stopped out at −1.09R after fees. Live record since 11 Oct: 1 closed signal, −1.09R, 0% won. Process: rules unchanged, no engine errors, trade alerts off since 16 Oct (signals recorded only).

[ZeeSX @zeesx_]

The survivor: a slower exit for the second half of each trade. On broker prices with real spread and swap it averaged +0.61R vs +0.32R per trade in 2020 to 2023, and +0.36R vs +0.36R since 2024. Backtest only, and it leans on a few big trades. On paper now; no live change.

[ZeeSX @zeesx_]

This week I tested six strategy families on BTC 4H against my system, after fees and swap. Four failed outright. One looked spectacular and was mostly a single trade. One exit idea survived two checks, and it still isn't going live.

[ZeeSX @zeesx_]

The trap: a momentum rule showed +4.36R per trade in 2020 to 2023. Almost all of it came from one trade, held July 2020 to June 2021, worth +191.6R. Without each version's three best trades, most versions lost money. Rejected.

[ZeeSX @zeesx_]

My takeaway: the parts of SMC that held up, breaks of structure and a higher-timeframe bias, were already inside my system. Every test is logged, failures included.

[ZeeSX @zeesx_]

I tested the core ideas of Smart Money Concepts against my BTC system this week. Not as a chart read, but as exact rules a computer can follow on 4H candles, after fees and swap. Most of it did not survive. Here is what happened.

[ZeeSX @zeesx_]

The one lead left is a change of character entry. It adds trades, but most come during trends my system is already in, and the drawdown was higher. It goes on paper tracking, not live.

[ZeeSX @zeesx_]

What I won't post here: entry rules, entry and stop prices, or calls. What I will post: the log, the results, the wins, the losses, and the things that break. The edge stays private. The record is public.

[ZeeSX @zeesx_]

The uncomfortable part of that backtest: 26% of months lost money, and one stretch went 517 days without a new equity high. The current one is at 416 days. Past results are not a promise.