Almost every account on my timeline is bidding $30k-$40k on $BTC right now.
Their comments. Every bullish post's reply section. All filled with retail waiting for that "perfect" entry down there.
Ask yourself one question. If $BTC actually hits $30-40k, who's the liquidity? Who's selling to every single one of these patient buyers?
And when has retail ever gotten rich buying the exact bottom that everyone agreed on?
Never. Not once.
The bottom isn't where the crowd is waiting. It's where the crowd has already given up.
Investing narratives now the war is over:
1. the obvious space narrative still running
2. health sector ~ looking at UNH lead
3. defence sector is a fade for me ( will go up, but lesser )
My calls for narratives are usually quite spot on for those that follow me all these years. The problem is the vehicle I choose to ride the narrative. So don't fade my calls on narratives, but do your own diligence on what you'll use to ride it.
The best 3 entries in the stock market the last 20 years? The 3 largest dips on light crude oil futures.
The 3 best times to sell in the last 20 years?
The 3 largest price increase in oil futures
Oil futures topping leads to more stock selling, not bottoms.
Crypto is frustrating for 10 months out of the year but there's 2 months each year that keeps us coming back. The fact that it's already gone through the massive correction makes them emotionally harder to trade but fundamentally more appealing.
Why were the April Tariffs so much worse? It's because we went from euphoria to fear almost overnight.
I'm not downplaying the events, I'm saying when bad things happen in an already fearful environment the response and reactions are minimized.
THIS IS FINANCIAL ADVICE
When you're young, spend all your money now.
The memories of a stupid $1000 trip at 20 with all your best mates is worth way more than $1,000,000 when you're 60.
There's a high premium on spending money young vs old
Money comes back, time does not.
P.S. If I don’t post any updates on challenge portfolio, means no position change. Happy New Year. Still up 200K in less than a month.
This is why you sell when you are euphoric even when you don't want to. Every time I took profits on $ETH I was worried I was selling too early. And almost every one of these exits I got criticized for. This is why trading is so hard you have to do the opposite of what you think.
There are people who have been in crypto for less than a year upset that they aren't rich yet. That's the problem. If your plan for success isnt at least a 5 to 10 year window you are doing it wrong. Even if you find success early you'll give it all back because of inexperience.
i think they should make the cryptocurrency markets go up absurdly to distract us from the viral epstein news circulating because people tend to stop caring about anything if they become richer
post tweet
Are you being a conservative / safe investor?
Do the maths and know you are fked.
The truth is most of you will never retire. Out of 1000s of you. Probably 1 or 2 of you lucky bastards will retire after 20 years of investing with your white hair and aging body and still probably won’t enjoy life. That’s you, risk adverse.
Jump off a plane?
Cliff dive?
Drift a car?
NEVER with your fat belly.
Think about your situation now. Goals are 5 - 10% a year? 20%? LMAO
Compound that and provided you don’t fk up a trade and maintain consistency record for 10 - 20 yrs.
What are odds? You can’t even trade properly for 1 yr. Talk about “long term”
The only way is taking trades with asymmetric risk + good risk management.
“Can this trade do a 2-3X more?”
“How much more upside vs downside”
“What if I’m wrong?”
Life is a simulation. It rewards passing difficult and painful test. It rewards risk taking. If you are in charge of the simulation, would you reward someone who is always scared? Do the hard shit. Be comfortable with uncertainty.
feel like people often underestimate the role that luck played in peoples success and assume their just insane at what they do, while that is true thing is everyone who made it very big also got very lucky
moral of the story is to take a chance
newsy johson