Bitcoin has entered the 3rd and final stage of the bear market.
This is because the guys who mocked the bears in stages 1-2 are now admitting price could go lower.
They were a bull in a bear market, and they will likely turn fully bearish in the bull market
Bitcoin News & Market Update
📉 Market Structure: Bitcoin and equities remain highly volatile as headlines drive short term moves.
Spot volume drops to levels last seen in 2023.
🌍 Geopolitics: Trump signals a temporary pause in Iran operations, while conflicting statements keep uncertainty elevated.
⚖️ Regulation: The CLARITY Act enters final review stages as discussions intensify in Washington. The SEC advances its crypto classification framework for White House review.
🏦 Institutional Activity: Strategy continues accumulating Bitcoin and expands its long term acquisition plan significantly.
📊 Relative Performance: Since the start of the Iran conflict, Bitcoin outperforms gold by a wide margin.
🧠 Take: Volatility rises. Conviction stays low. Bitcoin moves with headlines, not structure.
Bitcoin News & Market Update
📉 Market Structure: Bitcoin pulls back to around 70,500 as macro pressure increases.
🏦 Macro & Fed: The Fed keeps rates unchanged and warns about rising geopolitical risks.
New projections show fewer rate cuts ahead than previously expected.
📊 Economic Data: PPI comes in hotter than expected, reinforcing inflation concerns. Private sector job growth remains effectively flat for six months.
🌍 Geopolitics: Escalation in the Middle East intensifies as critical energy infrastructure is hit.
Oil surges back above 100, adding pressure across global markets.
📉 Risk Environment: Stocks, gold, silver and crypto all move lower as recession fears rise. Moody’s places US recession probability near 50 percent.
🏛️ Regulation: Progress continues on US crypto regulation, with movement on the Clarity Act.
Nasdaq receives approval to expand into tokenised securities trading.
🧠 Take: Macro tightens. Risk rises. Bitcoin reacts to pressure, not panic.
Bitcoin News & Market Update
📈 Market Structure: Bitcoin holds key support around 73,800, showing continued strength.
⚖️ Regulation: SEC and CFTC introduce the first joint crypto classification framework. Bitcoin is officially treated as a digital commodity.
🏛️ Policy: US lawmakers push forward on stablecoin legislation, with a potential compromise expected soon.
🛢️ Macro: US debt reaches a new all-time high at 39 trillion dollars. Markets watch oil closely as geopolitical tensions remain unresolved.
🌍 Global Adoption: Vietnam accelerates local crypto exchange development while tightening control on offshore trading.
💳 Infrastructure: Mastercard expands deeper into stablecoins through a major acquisition.
🧠 Take: Regulation becomes clearer. Bitcoin remains stable. Structure builds while noise fades.
Bitcoin News & Market Update
📈 Market Structure: Bitcoin moved above 76,000 before consolidating around 74,300. Eight consecutive green daily candles mark the longest streak in over two years.
🌍 Geopolitics: The US confirms Iranian oil shipments are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil dropped sharply before stabilising as supply concerns eased.
🛢️ Energy & Macro: Oil volatility cools after initial shock, reducing immediate macro pressure on markets.
🏛️ Policy & Regulation: Progress continues on US crypto market structure as discussions around the CLARITY Act advance. Markets expect no change in interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting.
🏦 Institutional Activity: Strategy acquires over 22,000 Bitcoin in its largest purchase since late 2024.
🧠 Take Momentum builds. Macro pressure fades. Bitcoin leads while uncertainty declines.
Bitcoin News & Market Update
📈 Market Structure: Bitcoin briefly moved above 74,000 after closing the week above 70,000.
🌍 Geopolitics: Tensions in the Middle East escalate as reports suggest possible US ground operations targeting Iran’s Kharg Island. Iran signals the Strait of Hormuz may remain open to most countries.
🛢️ Energy Markets: US oil opened above 102 dollars per barrel after the weekend events. Average US gasoline prices rise to the highest level since April 2024.
📉 Traditional Markets: US equity futures opened lower as geopolitical risk increased.
🏦 Liquidity & Macro: The Federal Reserve balance sheet rises to 6.64 trillion dollars, the highest level in eight months. Markets now focus on upcoming PPI data and the next FOMC decision.
🧠 Take: Geopolitics drive volatility. Liquidity continues to expand. Bitcoin holds strength while macro tension rises.
Bitcoin News & Market Update
📈 Market Structure: Bitcoin climbed toward 72,000 as macro fears eased. Crypto strength appears while equities remain under pressure.
📊 Relative Performance: Since the Iran escalation Bitcoin is up about 7 percent. Equities remain down while gold and silver also weakened.
🏛️ Policy Signals: Trump publicly urges the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates immediately.
💰 Institutional Flows: Thirty day Bitcoin ETF flows turn positive again after months of outflows.
🏦 Corporate Accumulation: Strategy is reported to have accumulated roughly 4,038 BTC through STRC financing.
📉 Traditional Markets: Nearly one trillion dollars in market value was wiped from US equities in the previous session.
🧠 Take: Risk assets struggle. Bitcoin shows resilience.
Relative strength often appears before the narrative changes.