Number Go Up

Options trader. My trades & market commentary. Not financial advice.

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

Nice daily engulfing bullish candle on $ES_F.

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

Trade Update: $OKLO At this point this is a lottery ticket. Those two ~10% drops right after I opened this trade were fatal and in hindsight I should have hit eject right away.

But, this name can move a lot, my trade is a naked call, with lots of time left, and it lost most of its value already, so risk reward dictates I keep it for a bounce, maybe sell a call against it later.

$OKLO 07/17 $80 Long Call @ $9.51

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

Trade Update: $MSFT's chart is a total disaster. Nine red days in a row and I am down 50% on it... BUT with a lot of time left till expiration.

With the latest Iran news, I will give it a chance to bounce on good news in the next couple of days, sell into strength (hopefully), and adjust the trade so some more reasonable strikes.

$MSFT 08/21 $425/480 Call Debit Spread @ $16.5

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

Trade Update: $NVDA Held on for far too long to this trade. The trade structure is broken.

Yes, the price seems to have rested at a volume shelf above $200, but this is not enough.

I expect a bit of a recovery into the end of the week and I will most likely sell it into strength.

If the bounce is very constructive, I will adjust strikes and expiration.

$NVDA 07/17 $230/275 Call Debit Spread @ $11.58

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

Trade Update: No sugarcoating this, $FCX absolutely dumped starting the very next day I bought it.

The overall structure is not broken yet, especially with today's bounce off the volume shelf and the lower rail.

But it means I will probably need more time on this trade, so will be adjusting strikes and expiration in the next day or so.

$FCX 07/17 $75/85 Call Debit Spread @ $2.55

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

Trade Update: This trade worked too well too quickly and it essentially hit my short strike with too much time left, so it is theta-rich.

My initial thought was to just close it out, but the relative strength is looking good and we have a nice recovery candle today, so keeping it on with assumptions that the price will at least hold up and we can erode some of that theta.

$LLY 07/17 $1100/1170 Call Debit Spread @ $24.25

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

@CNBCFastMoney @timseymour @GuyAdami If semis as a group will take a time out, does it mean $NVDA will rally? 😆

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

@shenvarr Absolutely, loss avoidance is key until market tells us which direction it wants to go. Hence no new trades from me, but I may need to start adjusting the ones I still have on - will post updates soon!

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

Dario keeps warning us about how dangerous AI is and that it needs to have safety guardrails and so on.

I think what he means is that he should be the one doing the AI policing.

And I also think he wants and needs it because he knows models are getting commoditized.

Dario is just protecting his investment. And you will pay for it in many ways.

[Lisan al Gaib @scaling01]

I've never felt the permanent underclass more than today

Claude Fable 5 won't be part of subscription plans in the future AND Anthropic is limiting Fable's capabilities to develop frontier LLMs

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

@shenvarr Yes, but it is almost worthless now. Holding onto it as a lottery ticket. The spread still has some decent time to allow it to bounce and maybe reduce size of loss.

[Karol @KarolCodes]

Bad news, Claude Fable 5 earns more per hour than you. Your window to escape permanent underclass just closed

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

Buying $ES_F near 50ma was in fact a great idea and I would like to give myself a pat on my back.

Only if I did not step away from my keyboard for a minute to have lunch... That buying opportunity was gone in minutes. 😭

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

50ma seems like a sure thing for $ES_F. We could even get there today, if we have a move similar to that on last Friday. That would be a hair above 7200, a nice psychological level.

7250.25 would be exactly 5% downturn on the $ES_F. With $XLK down over 10%, I think we are getting close to a buying spot.

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

Tried Claude Fable model today.

I asked it to perform a code review on a project with 100k lines of code, 800 files.

I am on a 5x pro plan ($100 per month).

150k/700k tokens later, I have been cut off and need to wait 4 hours for the counter to reset.

And yet, I do not have my code review...

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

Here we go again...

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says Iran shot down an American Apache Helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz and that the US must now "respond to this attack."

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

Bit Tech is bleeding, down big from all-time-highs.

Are you buying the dip?

$NFLX -38.96%
$META -25.92%
$MSFT -19.79%
$NVDA -13.39%
$AMZN -12.88%
$GOOGL -11.71%
$AAPL -8.23%

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

50ma seems like a sure thing for $ES_F. We could even get there today, if we have a move similar to that on last Friday. That would be a hair above 7200, a nice psychological level.

7250.25 would be exactly 5% downturn on the $ES_F. With $XLK down over 10%, I think we are getting close to a buying spot.

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

From what I understand, money that does not get allocated to Space X IPO will flow back into the market on Thursday - allocation happens on Wednesday.

Maybe we see a bounce on Thursday then? Would nicely line up with post-CPI day.

[Number Go Up @zerocooltrader]

I am not providing updates on my trades as I am not making any moves right now.

The market is crazy. Just look at the intraday swings.

This can resolve to the upside, or downside - violently, and quickly!

My only decision point right now is whether to close out of my positions today, ahead of the CPI print.

After 120+ point intraday reversal on $ES_F, I am looking for a recovery above 7400 first. Then, we will see...