Most people buying options are just paying for lottery tickets and wondering why they keep losing.
So I dropped a guide which isn’t full of jargon or emojis that I wish existed when I started.
https://t.co/zXujU7uKSb
Boom… Made a decent sized upside bet for SNOW earnings.180c 06/18… bought @ 6.9 on 5/14, upped it to 70bps. Trimmed half pre-print at 15.3.
Stock now +38% premarket, call ~61.
Two camps right now:
A: market crowded, top is in.
B: nobody owns this, melt-up coming.
One of these is going to look very stupid in three months.
https://t.co/T5F4LxHlnO
The most expensive misread in markets right here is thinking AI kills software. I think it gets absorbed by it which is a completely different trade.
Spent several weeks on this post and built a 15 name basket around the idea.
https://t.co/2jGQf1SK2J
What just happened?
At 2:30 PM ET today, CBS News reported that President Trump was considering "boots on the ground" in Iran.
Then, at 3:43 PM ET, President Trump said "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran," with the S&P 500 hitting a new 2026 low.
Exactly 90 minutes later, at 5:13 PM ET, President Trump said the US is "considering winding down" the war with Iran.
Between the 3:43 PM ET and 5:13 PM ET comments, the S&P 500 had already risen nearly +1% on NO news.
By 6:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 rallied +1.8% from its low, adding +$900 BILLION in market cap.
Markets are now closed until Monday.
This mf made me so much money last year alongside @agnostoxxx
Now he managed to top tick with puts that I obviously bought too many of as I am up 2% today.
There’s a point in every bull market when disbelief stops being a thesis and starts being a liability.
I think we crossed that line for 2026.
https://t.co/y3reghvZCZ
Apple’s vice-president of artificial intelligence will be replaced by a top Microsoft executive as the iPhone maker struggles to recover from a slow start in the race to harness advanced AI. https://t.co/GHIbiaUqoS
Happy thanksgiving to @lord_fed@jbulltard1@agnostoxxx I am up 147% ytd and I am shutting down for the year.
Special thanks to Fed for his phase 2 AI basket, that changed my year. Shrub for the memes. And Bulltard for the flow.