Zettacap

Data analytics, for election forecasting, financial markets, stock investing, NLP, machine learning, social media influence, etc.

[Zettacap @zettacap]

Forecasted short-term global equity rally, following #panic sell-off of #covidcrash

https://t.co/5p4GwNGK61

[Zettacap @zettacap]

8/8
Current forecast:

Trump 302 electoral votes
Biden 236 electoral votes

#election2020 @realDonaldTrump @JoeBiden

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7/8
Consensus sees a #bluewave whereas we see a tightly divided electorate with #Trump surging into #electionday, we saw a similar pattern emerge in 2016 which helped Trump pull off fantastical victories in #bluewall states

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6/8
In most elections, by the time #ElectionDay comes, the divergence between traditional poll-based forecasts and our alternative data based forecasts has diminished greatly, not the case for 2020 as is still enormous

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5/8
In contrast to mainstream forecasters who mostly rely on #polls, we analyze #altdata, our forecasts leverage signals given by what people do on-line, social media, search, on-line purchases, web browsing

[Zettacap @zettacap]

4/8
Consensus forecasts envision a #bluewave. Not only will #Bidenwin but #Democrats are expected to win control of the #Senate and maintain the #House, some forecasts put the probability of a House win at 99%, Senate at 78%

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3/8
A basket of consensus forecasts also puts the likelihood of a #Bidenvictory at around 90%

#forecasts #consensus #election2020 #biden #trump

[Zettacap @zettacap]

2/8
Consensus forecasts (which include 538, The Economist, Princeton Election Consortium, and others) predict #Bidenwillwin with ~ 350 electoral votes. In the current environment, this amounts to a #landslide

#forecasts #consensus #election2020 #biden #trump

[Zettacap @zettacap]

1/8
#ElectionDay of #Election2020 is almost here

#forecasts #consensus #biden #trump

[Zettacap @zettacap]

8/8
One dataset is correct, we doubt there is much room for a middle ground. Either traditional polls will be proven correct and there will be a #BidenLandslide and perhaps #Trifecta or our #altdata are correct (supported by these #localnews #snappolls) and #Trumpwillwin

[Zettacap @zettacap]

7/8
This table takes averages of the #snappolls organized by the local TV stations and local news organizations (mostly newspapers) and compares them to the #CNNpoll

@realdonaldtrump @joebiden #election2020 #presidentialdebate #whowonthedebate

[Zettacap @zettacap]

6/8
This table summarizes 10 #localnews post-debate snap #polls, comparing them to the #CNNpoll

@realdonaldtrump @joebiden #election2020 #presidentialdebate #whowonthedebate

[Zettacap @zettacap]

5/8
How can polls be so different? Either (1) #localpolls are anonymous, which is important in the current contentious US political environment, or (2) #localpolls are open to distortions (multiple votes). We will only know for sure on #ElectionDay

[Zettacap @zettacap]

4/8
#postdebate #CNNpoll says Biden/Trump = 53%/39%

The average of 10 #localnews snap polls says Biden/Trump = 32%/66%

#CNN says Biden by 14 pts.

#localnews says Trump by 34 pts.

#trumpwon #bidenwon

[Zettacap @zettacap]

3/8
This divergence is also seen when we compare post-debate snap polls between the traditional #CNNpoll and 10 anonymous on-line polls conducted by #localnews organizations, located across the country, OH, PA, MA, GA, NM, CA, WA

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2/8
The divergence between #polls and #altdata is the largest we have ever seen this close to #electionday

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1/8
There are two different versions of reality concerning the #2020election, one based on traditional polls that says #Bidenlandslide while the other based on #altdata says #Trumpwillwin

Which is correct?

[Zettacap @zettacap]

#electionpolls clearly indicate #Biden will win the #2020Election but #altdata shows this race is exceptionally close, strong outperformance by #Trump according to number of #views and #search during the #TownHalls should produce a rethink

[Zettacap @zettacap]

For interest in last night's Town Halls, we see the breakdown as roughly 65% Trump vs 35% Biden, again waiting for ultimate confirmation from Nielsen, but these figures clearly put into doubt the consensus #Bidenlandslide scenario

[Zettacap @zettacap]

Nielsen ratings of the Town Halls will be confirmation, but our data based on YouTube views, social media, web traffic and search trends shows that there was more interest in and likely viewers of the NBC / Trump Town Hall

[Zettacap @zettacap]

number of views of Town Halls based on YouTube channels that live broadcasted #TrumpTownHallNBC (NBC News, CNBC, CNBC-TV, Telemundo, and Sky News) and #BidenTownHallABC (ABC)