Zeuspace Group

A leading trading firm for the development of the future algorithm.
Quantitative trading｜AI｜Hong Kong｜London
Not refer to any investment advice. @DrZeuspace

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

Thank you AIA Apex Group for inviting us to share our crypto expertise with their elite MDRT team – AIA Hong Kong’s top performing team, brimming with exceptional young talent. Special thanks to Shiqi Peng & Megan Li for making the event possible!

Zeuspace Group, founded by Dr. Andy Cheung, specializes in AI-driven quantitative trading systems and manages over US$200 million. Our partner CBCX, licensed in South Africa, Singapore and other regions, provides top-tier multi-asset liquidity since 2010. With extremely low spreads, advanced trading technology and support for more than 20 languages, it has become the preferred partner for traders at all levels.

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

📆 Global Markets Snapshot · October 6, 2026

1. 📈 US Stocks: Nasdaq Hits Record High – Tech "Ignores" Treasury Storm

US markets closed higher Monday – Dow +0.18% at 51,268.26, S&P 500 +0.66% at 7,773.99, Nasdaq +1.05% at 27,477.31 – a record closing high. The Dow briefly fell over 310 points before staging a V-shaped rebound.

Nvidia +2%, touching an all-time high of $240.098. Novavax +20%, SpaceX +7%+, Alibaba +4%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed +1.7%.

💬 : The 10-year Treasury yield surged to its highest in over 20 years, yet the Nasdaq still hit a record high – tech's "immunity" is striking. Nvidia's record high shows AI hardware logic remains the ultimate faith. Investors are watching the upcoming earnings season, while falling oil provided an additional risk-appetite boost.

2. 🏛️ Bonds: 10-Year Treasury Breaks 5.3% – 24-Year High

The Treasury selloff continued – the 10-year yield rose to 5.3%, the 30-year to 5.656%, both hitting their highest since 2002. The 2-year yield at 4.797%.

Japan's 10-year JGB yield rose to ~3.10% – its highest in about 30 years, with the US-Japan yield gap at 224bps.

💬 : Fiscal deficit concerns + sticky inflation + global sovereign supply pressure – triple negatives pushing Treasury yields to multi-year highs. Market pricing for an October Fed hike has plunged from 70% a week ago to ~21%, but long-end yields haven't fallen in response – suggesting what's driving long-end yields isn't monetary policy expectations, but long-term structural concerns about fiscal and inflation.

3. 💵 Forex: Dollar Approaches 102.2 – Yen Nears 158

DXY +0.23% at 102.167, touching 102.53 intraday. USD/JPY around 158.00, with the yen remaining weak as the US-Japan yield gap stays dollar-favorable.

EUR/USD fell to 1.1215, GBP at 1.3219. French public finance concerns dragged on the euro, indirectly boosting the dollar.

💬 : Dollar strength = elevated Treasury yields + French fiscal concerns + structural yen weakness. The yen is approaching 158 – just one step from the 160 psychological mark. Prime Minister Takaichi told bond investors the government will "appropriately control annual debt issuance," but Japan's heavy debt burden and high oil prices continue to weigh on the yen. BOJ Governor Ueda's Tuesday speech is the next key event.

4. 🛢️ Oil: Falls Nearly 2% – G7 Reserve Release + Saudi Price Cut

WTI closed -1.84% at $89.43/bbl**, **Brent -1.89% at $100.32/bbl. Brent barely held the $100 level.

Direct catalysts: Saudi Arabia cut its crude selling price to Asian buyers, signaling Middle East export recovery; the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, pledging no energy export restrictions.

💬 : Oil continues to retreat from highs – multiple supply-side positives are squeezing out geopolitical premium. But analysts note these barrels are "still being shipped at higher costs and via less efficient routes," casting doubt on the sustainability of supply recovery. Brent's $100 is key psychological support.

5. 🥇 Gold: Spot Gold Loses $4,110 – Silver Falls Over 1%

**Spot gold lost the $4,110/oz level**, down 0.74% on the day, briefly dropping over $10 intraday. **Spot silver -1.00% at $60.42/oz**. NY gold futures closed at $4,156.8/oz, -0.1%.

Chinese gold jewelry prices held steady – Chow Tai Fook at 1,249 yuan/gram, gold bars at 1,101. Shanghai Gold Exchange AU9999 at 907.32 yuan/gram.

💬 : Surging Treasury yields + a stronger dollar = persistent pressure on gold. **Gold is locked in a tug-of-war around $4,100-4,150** – between geopolitical safe-haven (US-Iran deadlock) and rate headwinds (10-year above 5.3%), rate expectations are winning short-term. $4,100 is key support; a break could send gold to $4,050.

6. ₿ Crypto: BTC Holds $85,000 – Ethereum Weakens

Bitcoin traded in the $85,400-85,900 range**, down 0.8% in 24 hours, with an intraday high of $86,999 and low of $84,972. **Ethereum -0.54% at $2,715.

BTC closed last week at $86,532 (Bitstamp) – its highest weekly close since late January – but has yet to reclaim its 2026 opening price of $87,570. ~$194M liquidated.

💬 : BTC is consolidating in the $85,000-86,000 range – **surging Treasury yields + a stronger dollar are weighing on risk appetite, but persistent ETF inflows provide support**. $87,570 (2026 opening price) is key medium-term resistance – a break confirms the bull trend; a drop below $84,000 could see a retest of $82,000.

7. 🕊️ US-Iran Talks: Iran Responds to US Proposal – Key Divergence Clear

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said on October 4 that Tehran has responded to the US proposal. He said the US plan is "basically consistent with previous positions and mainly concerns the nuclear issue," while Iran has made clear the current priority is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran demands concrete US measures – including stopping interference with Iranian commercial shipping, halting sanctions, and other interventionist actions. Baghaei stressed Iran "always seizes every opportunity for diplomacy," but "past experience shows the other side isn't serious about diplomacy."

💬 : The core US-Iran divergence is clear – the US wants to talk nuclear, Iran wants to talk Strait first. Iran's response hasn't closed the diplomatic window, but the mismatch in priorities means a near-term deal is highly unlikely. Trump previously rejected Iran's "7-day plan," and geopolitical risk premium will continue to dominate short-term oil volatility.

🔥 Big Picture

Nasdaq record high vs 10-year Treasury above 5.3% – markets are experiencing a "split prosperity."

Three transmission chains running simultaneously:

10-year Treasury breaks 5.3% (24-year high) + 30-year above 5.65% → global borrowing costs surge → but Nasdaq hits record high on AI faith and falling oil → stocks and bonds severely decoupled

G7 releases 100M barrels + Saudi cuts Asian prices → oil falls nearly 2% → inflation concerns marginally ease → but long-end Treasuries don't fall → fiscal concerns are the core contradiction

Dollar approaches 102.2 + yen nears 158 → Japan 10-year JGB hits 30-year high → US-Japan yield gap at 224bps → intervention risk continues to build

Today (October 6) to watch:

BOJ Governor Ueda's speech – can the yen hold 158?

US August JOLTS job openings – labor market thermometer

US-Iran talks follow-up – can the diplomatic window stay open?

#USStocks #NasdaqRecord #Treasuries #30Year #Fed #DXY #JPY #Oil #Gold #Bitcoin #USIranTalks #MarketUpdate

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

📆 全球市场速览 · 2026年10月6日

1. 📈 美股：纳指创历史新高，科技股“无视”美债风暴

美股三大指数周一全线��涨——道指涨0.18%报51,268.26点，标普500涨0.66%报7,773.99点，纳指涨1.05%报27,477.31点，创收盘历史新高。道指盘中一度跌逾310点，随后V型反弹。

英伟达涨2%，触及240.098美元历史新高。诺瓦瓦克斯医药涨20%，SpaceX涨超7%，阿里巴巴涨4%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.7%。

💬 ：10年期美债收益率飙升至20多年来最高，但纳指仍能创新高——科技股的“免疫力”令人侧目。英伟达股价新高说明AI硬件逻辑依然是资金的终极信仰。投资者正在观望即将到来的财报季，而油价下跌提供了额外的风险偏好支撑。

2. 🏛️ 债市：10年期美债收益率突破5.3%，创24年新高

美债抛售持续——10年期美债收益率升至5.3%，30年期升至5.656%，双双刷新2002年以来最高水平。2年期美债收益率报4.797%。

日本10年期国债收益率升至约3.10%，为约30年来最高，美日利差达224个基点。

💬 ：财政赤字担忧+通胀黏性+全球主权债供给压力——三重利空推动美债收益率续创多年新高。市场对美联储10月加息的定价从一周前的70%骤降至约21%，但长端收益率并未因加息预期降温而回落——这说明推升长端收益率的，不是货币政策预期，而是财政和通胀的长期结构性担忧。

3. 💵 汇市：美元指数逼近102.2，日元逼近158关口

美元指数上涨0.23%报102.167，盘中一度触及102.53。美元兑日元报158.00附近，日元维持弱势，日美利差持续偏向美元。

欧元兑美元跌至1.1215，英镑报1.3219。法国公共财政担忧拖累欧元，间接提振美元。

💬 ：美元强势 = 美债收益率高企 + 法国财政担忧 + 日元��构性弱势。日元逼近158——距160心理关口仅一步之遥。日本首相高市早苗向债券投资者表示将“适当控制年度发债规模”，但日本沉重的债务负担和高企的油价令日元前景持续承压。日本央行行长植田和男周二讲话是下一个关键节点。

4. 🛢️ 原油：油价跌近2%，G7释放储备+沙特下调售价双重施压

WTI原油收跌1.84%报89.43美元/桶，布伦特原油收跌1.89%报100.32美元/桶。布伦特勉强守住100美元关口。

直接催化：沙特下调面向亚洲买家的原油售价，显示中东出口正在恢复；G7同意从紧急储备中释放1亿桶柴油和原油，并承诺不施加能源出口限制。

💬 ：油价从高位持续回落——供应端的多重利好正在挤出地缘溢价。但分析师指出，这些原油“仍以更高的成本、通过效率更低的路线运输”，供应恢复的可持续性仍存疑。布伦特100美元是关键心理支撑。

5. 🥇 黄金：现货金失守4110美元，白银跌超1%

现货黄金失守4110美元/盎司，日内跌幅0.74%，盘中短线跌超10美元。现货白银跌幅达1.00%，报60.42美元/盎司。纽约期金收报4156.8美元/盎司，跌幅0.1%。

国内金饰价格持稳——潮宏基黄金报价1249元/克，金条1101元/克。上海黄金交易所AU9999报907.32元/克。

💬 ：美债收益率飙升+美元走强=黄金的持续压力。金价在4100-4150美元区间反复拉锯——地缘避险（美伊僵局）与利率利空（美债破5.3%）的拉锯中，利率预期短期占上风。4100美元是关键支撑，若失守下一站4050。

6. ₿ 加密货币：BTC守85,000美元，以太坊走弱

比特币报约85,400-85,900美元区间，24小时跌0.8%，盘中高点86,999美元、低点84,972美元。以太坊跌0.54%报2,715美元���

BTC上周收���86,532美元（Bitstamp），为1月底以来最高周收盘价，但仍未收复2026年开盘价87,570美元。爆仓约1.94亿美元。

💬 ：BTC在85,000-86,000美元区间窄幅震荡——美债收益率飙升+美元走强压制风险偏好，但ETF持续流入提供底部支撑。87,570美元（2026年开盘价）是中期关键阻力，突破则确认牛市延续；若跌破84,000，可能回踩82,000。

7. 🕊️ 美伊谈判：伊朗回应美方提议，双方重点分歧明显

伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃4日表示，德黑兰已对美国提议作出回应。他称美方方案“与之前立场基本一致，主要涉及伊朗核问题”，而伊朗明确表示现阶段的重点是霍尔木兹海峡问题。伊朗要求美方采取具体措施——包括停止干扰伊朗商业航运、停止制裁及其他干涉主义措施。巴加埃强调，伊朗“始终抓住一切机会运用外交���段”，但“以往经验表明对方并没有认真对待外交”。

💬 ：美伊谈判的核心分歧清晰可见——美国想谈核问题，伊朗想先谈海峡。伊朗的回应并未关闭外交窗口，但双方在谈判优先事项上的错位意味着短期内达成协议的概率极低。特朗普此前已拒绝伊朗的“7天方案”，地缘风险溢价将继续主导油价的短期波动。

🔥 整体判断

纳指创新高 vs 美债破5.3%——市场正在经历一场“分裂的繁荣”。

三条清晰的传导链正在同时运转：

美债收益率破5.3%（24年新高）+ 30年期破5.65% → 全球借贷成本飙升 → 但纳指因AI信仰和油价下跌创历史新高 → 股市与债市严重脱钩

G7释放1亿桶储备 + 沙特下调亚洲售价 → 油价跌近2% → 通胀担忧边际缓解 → 但美债长端并未回落 → 财政担忧才是核心矛盾

美元逼近102.2 + 日元逼近158 → 日本10年期国债创30年新高 → 日美利差224bp → 日本当局干预风险持续累积

今日（10月6日）重点关注：

日本央行行长植田和男讲话——日元能否守住158？

美国8月JOLTS职位空缺数据——劳动力市场温度计

美伊谈判后续——外交窗口能否维持？

#美股 #纳指新高 #美债 #30年期 #美联储 #美元 #日元 #原油 #黄金 #比特币 #美伊谈判 #市场复盘

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

中美会晤八点共识，3条线看懂市场？！

#中美会晤 #八点共识 #A股 #AI #300亿 #金融

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

香港展会采访Techub News创始人——加息落地，BTC涨到8.5万？

https://t.co/W02i49INxj

#香港 #金融展会 #BTC #美联储加息 #TechubNews #web3

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

📆 Global Markets Snapshot · September 30, 2026

1. 📉 US Stocks: Three Indices Edge Lower – Consumer Confidence Hits 12.5-Year Low

US markets fell for a second straight session Tuesday – Dow -131.59 points (-0.26%) at 51,349.92, S&P 500 -12.85 points (-0.17%) at 7,670.84, Nasdaq -22.84 points (-0.09%) at 26,797.54.

Storage chip names mostly rose – SK Hynix +2%+, Micron +1%+. US September consumer confidence fell to a near 12.5-year low – the day's weakest economic data point.

💬 : Consumer confidence at a 12.5-year low combined with surging Treasury yields creates a dangerous mix – economic confidence is deteriorating while rates keep rising, forcing markets to price "stagflation."

2. 🏛️ Bonds: 30-Year Treasury Breaks 5.6% – Highest Since 2002

Treasuries suffered a historic selloff – the 30-year yield briefly broke above 5.62% intraday, its highest since June 2002; the 10-year touched 5.29%, its highest since 2007; the 2-year rose to 4.93%, approaching 5%.

But NY Fed President Williams said "if the economy evolves as predicted, another adjustment to the fed funds target range later this year may be appropriate," which markets read as no rush to act, sending short-end yields lower. The 30-year closed back at 5.57%, the 10-year at 5.24%.

Market pricing for at least a 25bp October hike fell to 51.5%.

💬 : The long end hit new highs on supply pressure and inflation fears, while the short end fell sharply after Williams' remarks – the curve is locked in a violent tug-of-war between "stagflation pricing" and "policy wait-and-see." The 30-year above 5.6% is the first since 2002, echoing 2007 (when the 10-year broke 5%).

3. 💵 Forex: Dollar Nears 52-Week High – Yen Strengthens Against the Trend

DXY +0.19% at 101.38, nearing a 52-week high, on track for a ~2% September gain – its best monthly performance since June.

USD/JPY broke below 157, with the yen strengthening against the trend as traders reacted to密集 verbal warnings from Japanese officials. Japan's top currency official Mimura warned again to take the "very clear" signals from Japan and the US on excessive yen weakness seriously. EUR at 1.1340, GBP at 1.3231.

💬 : Dollar strength = hawkish Fed expectations + high oil + safe-haven demand. The yen is the only major currency not falling – its defensive属性 is being repriced against surging US yields. Union Bancaire Privée cut its USD/JPY year-end forecast to 155.

4. 🛢️ Commodities: Oil Plunges Nearly 4% – Gold Rebounds from 7-Week Low

Oil fell sharply – WTI down nearly 4% to ~$88.74/bbl, with Shanghai crude futures -1.63% at 705 yuan/bbl. The direct catalyst: signs of Middle East export recovery – more vessels and oil are exiting the Strait of Hormuz, with the US stance hardening accordingly.

Gold rebounded from a more than seven-week low – spot gold +1.63% at $4,181.87/oz on Tuesday, COMEX gold +1.12% at $4,215/oz. Domestic Shanghai gold futures +0.80% at 905 yuan/gram.

💬 : Oil's plunge is the "supply recovery" logic playing out – but the US stance hardening simultaneously means oil's downside depends on the pace of US-Iran maneuvering. Gold finding support near $4,150 and rebounding shows the "bad news priced in" logic remains at work.

5. ₿ Crypto: BTC Holds 83K – $272M Liquidated Across Market

**BTC at ~$83,500, +0.33% in 24 hours**; Ethereum at ~$2,670. BTC had pulled back from above $87,000, holding the key $82,500 support but trading in a narrow band below $84,300.

**$272M liquidated across crypto markets in 24 hours**, with longs taking the brunt. **Bitcoin spot ETF inflows slowed** – failure to break $85,000 could see a retest of $80,000. The Fear & Greed Index pulled back but remains in "Greed" territory.

CryptoQuant's research head noted BTC closed above its 365-day moving average last week, confirming a new bull market.

💬 : Short-term price pressure contrasts with persistent institutional buying. $82,500-83,000 is the key line – holding keeps a choppy-to-strong setup intact, a break could deepen the correction. Slowing ETF inflows are a short-term signal to watch closely.

6. 🌏 Other Markets: Asia Mixed

Nikkei 225 +1.38% at 65,018.95, KOSPI +2.07% at 7,152.61. Hong Kong's Hang Seng opened +0.51% at 25,170, its third straight gain, with AI and semiconductor names regaining strength.

💬 : Asian chip stocks continue to lead – AI hardware logic remains capital's most steadfast direction globally.

🔥 Big Picture

Oil plunges nearly 4% + Treasury yields hit multi-year highs + dollar nears 52-week high – the stagflation trade is unfolding across global assets simultaneously.

Three transmission chains running simultaneously:

Middle East export recovery signs → oil plunges nearly 4% → but US stance hardens simultaneously → inflation fears persist → 10-year Treasury hits 5.29% (highest since 2007) → US stocks fall for second day

Williams' "no rush" → short-end yields fall → but long end hits new highs on supply pressure → 30-year breaks 5.6% (highest since 2002) → curve in violent tug-of-war

Dollar nears 52-week high + Japanese officials' dense warnings → yen strengthens against the trend to 156.97 → gold rebounds from 7-week low �� BTC holds 83K

Today (September 30) to watch:

US August PCE inflation – the Fed's preferred gauge, will set the tone for October hike expectations

US-Iran follow-up talks – can Qatari mediators arrange a new round?

Gold at $4,150-4,200 – can the rebound hold?

#Treasuries #30Year #Fed #DXY #JPY #Oil #Gold #Bitcoin #ConsumerConfidence #MarketUpdate

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

📆 全球市场速览 · 2026年9月30日

1. 📉 美股：三大指数小幅收跌，消费者信心创12年���新低

美股周二连续第二日收跌——道指跌131.59点（0.26%）报51,349.92点，标普500跌12.85点（0.17%）报7,670.84点，纳指跌22.84点（0.09%）报26,797.54点。

存储芯片概念多数上涨——SK海力士涨超2%，美光科技涨超1%。美国9月消费者信心指数降至近12年半低点，成为当日最弱的经济数据。

💬 ：消费者信心跌至12年半新低，与美债收益率飙升形成危险的组合——经济信心在恶化，但利率还在涨，市场被迫为“滞胀”定价。

2. 🏛️ 债市：30年期美债突破5.6%，创2002年以来新高

美债遭遇历史性抛售——30年期美债收益率盘中一度升破5.62%，创2002年6月以来最高；10年期收益率触及5.29%，为2007年以来最高；2年期收益率升至4.93%，逼近5%关口。

但纽约联储主席威廉姆斯当日表示“若经济走势与预测一致，今年晚些时候再进行一次上调可能是合适的”，其表态被市场解读为不急于采取行动，短端收益率应声回落。30年期尾盘回落至5.57%，10年期回落至5.24%。

市场对美联储10月加息至少25个基点的概率定价降至51.5%。

💬 ：长端在供给压力和通胀担忧下续创新高，短端却在威廉姆斯讲话后显著回落——曲线在“滞胀定价”和“政策观望”之间剧烈拉锯。30年期突破5.6%是2002年以来首次，与2007年（10年期破5%）形成历史呼应。

3. 💵 汇市：美元逼近52周高点，日元逆势升值

美元指数收涨0.19%报101.38，逼近52周高点，9月有望涨约2%，创6月以来最佳单月表现。

美元兑日元跌破157，日元逆势走强——交易员对日本官员密集的口头警告作出反应。日本最高外汇事务官三村淳再次警告应认真对待日美就日元过度贬值发出的“非常明确”信号。欧元兑美元报1.1340，英镑报1.3231。

💬 ：美元强势 = 美联储鹰派预期 + 油价高企 + 避险需求。日元是唯一没有下跌的主要货币——在美债收益率飙升的背景下，日元��防御属性正在被重新定价。瑞联银行下调美元兑日元年底预测至155。

4. 🛢️ 大宗商品：油价大跌近4%，黄金自七周低位反弹

���油显著下跌——WTI原油跌近4%至88.74美元/桶附近，SC原油主力合约夜盘跌1.63%报705元/桶。直接催化是中东出口恢复迹象——更多船只和石油得以驶出霍尔木兹海峡，美方立场随之趋于强硬。

黄金自逾七周低位反弹——现货黄金周二上涨1.63%收于4181.87美元/盎司，COMEX黄金涨1.12%报4215美元/盎司。国内沪金主力合约夜盘收涨0.80%报905元/克。

💬 ：油价大跌是“供应恢复”的逻辑在兑现——但美方立场同步走强，意味着油价的下行空间取决于美伊博弈的节奏。黄金在4150美元附近找到支撑后反弹，说明“利空出尽”逻辑仍在发挥作用。

5. ₿ 加密货币：BTC守83K，全市场爆仓2.72亿美元

比特币报约83,500美元，24小时微涨0.33%；以太坊报约2,670美元。BTC此前从87,000美元上方回落，守住82,500美元关键支撑，但在84,300美元下方窄幅震荡。

全网24小时爆仓2.72亿美元，多头受创��显。比特币现货ETF流入放缓，若无法攻破85,000美元，可能回踩80,000美元。恐慌与贪婪指数回落但仍偏贪婪。

CryptoQuant��究主管指出，BTC上周收盘价高于365日移动平均线，确认了新一轮牛市的开启。

💬 ：价格短期承压与机构持续买入形成对比。82,500-83,000美元是关键防线——守住则维持震荡偏强格局，失守则可能加深修正。ETF流入放缓是短期需要密切关注的信号。

6. 🌏 其他市场：亚太股市表现分化

日经225指数涨1.38%报65,018.95点，韩国综合指数涨2.07%报7,152.61点。香港恒生指数高开0.51%报25,170点，为连续第三个交易日上涨，AI与半导体板块重拾强势。

💬 ：亚太芯片股继续领涨——AI硬件逻辑在全球范围内依然是资金最坚定的方向。

🔥 整体判断

油价大跌近4% + 美债收益率续创多年新高 + 美元逼近52周高点——滞胀交易正在全球资产中同步展开。

三条清晰的传导链正在同时运转：

中东出口恢复迹象 → 油价大跌近4% → 但美方立场同步强硬 → 通胀担忧并未消除 → 10年期美债触及5.29%（2007年以来最高）→ 美股连续第二日收跌

威廉姆斯“不急于行动” → 短端美债收益率回落 → 但长端在供给压力下续创新高 → 30年期突破5.6%（2002年以来最高）→ 曲线在滞胀定价与政策观望间剧烈拉锯

美元逼近52周高点 + 日本官员密集警告 → 日元逆势升值至156.97 → 黄金自七周低位反弹 → BTC守83K

今日（9月30日）重点关注：

美国8月PCE通胀数据——美联储最关注的通胀指标，将决定10月加息预期走向

美伊后续会谈——卡塔尔斡旋方能否促成新一轮磋商？

黄金4,150-4,200美元区间——能否守住反弹势头？

#美债 #30年期 #美联储 #美元 #日元 #原油 #黄金 #比特币 #消费者信心 #市场复盘

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

📆 Global Markets Snapshot · September 29, 2026

1. 📉 US-Iran Talks Collapse Again – Global Stocks and Bonds Get "Double-Killed"

Trump formally rejected Iran's "7-day Hormuz reopening plan," pushing US-Iran talks back into deadlock. Iran refused to soften its conditions, while Qatari mediators continued working to arrange a new round of indirect talks within the next day or two.

Global markets are showing a classic "stagflation trade" – oil spiking then fading, Treasury yields surging, stocks under pressure, gold and silver crushed, and the dollar holding at highs.

US markets fell across the board Monday – Dow -0.67% at 51,481.51, S&P 500 -0.77% at 7,683.69, its worst single-day drop since August 20, Nasdaq -0.92% at 26,820.38. Semis mostly fell – Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%, ARM -8.70%, Qualcomm -7.17%, Intel -5.67%. Tech giants broadly declined – Tesla -3.94%, Meta -4.79%, while Nvidia bucked the trend, +1.68%.

💬 : Oil up → inflation fears → Treasury yields surge → stocks under pressure – this chain keeps reinforcing itself. But Nvidia's counter-trend rally on its $150 billion buyback announcement shows core AI assets remain resilient amid market turmoil – capital is "selectively hiding."

2. 🏛️ Bonds: 10-Year Treasury Hits 5.27% – 19-Year High

Treasuries suffered a historic selloff – the 10-year yield hit 5.2719% intraday, its highest since 2007, closing at 5.2361%; the 30-year hit 5.581% intraday, a fresh high since 2002; the 2-year reached 4.9305%, approaching 5%.

Global bond markets are under synchronized pressure – UK 10-year gilt yields rose to 5.44%, the highest since 2007; French borrowing costs hit their highest since 2008.

💬 Comment: Bonds are pricing two fears simultaneously – sticky inflation (high oil feeding into core inflation) and widening fiscal deficits (CBO projects $2.1 trillion in debt interest by 2036). 5.27% on the 10-year is the highest since 2007, and 5.58% on the 30-year is the highest since 2002 – the "5% risk-free" new normal is being reaffirmed repeatedly. Markets now price over 70% odds of an October Fed hike.

3. 🛢️ Commodities: Oil Spikes Then Fades – Gold and Silver Crushed

Oil spiked then reversed – WTI futures had surged over 4% before plunging into negative territory at $92.34/bbl; Brent rose nearly 4% before turning lower at $97.38/bbl. Reports that US officials said Trump is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and unfreeze its assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue sent oil plunging intraday.

Gold and silver crashed – **spot gold -3.96% at $4,115.24/oz**, hitting as low as $4,110.75 – a more than seven-week low; **spot silver -5.65% at $60.63/oz**. COMEX gold -4.00% at $4,148.50/oz, COMEX silver -5.82% at $61.03/oz.

Chinese gold jewelry prices were cut sharply – Chow Sang Sang at 1,245 yuan/gram, down 27 yuan; Lao Miao at 1,242, down 33; Chow Tai Fook at 1,246, down 32.

💬 : Gold and silver are experiencing a "perfect storm" – oil up → inflation fears → rising Fed hike expectations → stronger dollar + surging Treasury yields, three negatives crushing precious metals simultaneously. Analysts put it bluntly: "The oil surge means inflation may be more troublesome, the Fed will be more hawkish, and rising Treasury yields with the dollar at multi-week highs form a 'perfect storm' driving metals lower." $4,100 is key short-term support for gold – a break could send it to $4,000.

4. 💵 Forex: Dollar Holds Two-Month High – Yen Under Pressure

DXY around 101.21, roughly flat after touching 101.27, on track for a 1.8% September gain – its strongest monthly performance since June. USD/JPY around 157.36, with the yen giving back most of Monday's early gains.

Japan's top currency official Mimura warned markets again to take the "very clear" signals from both Japan and the US on excessive yen weakness seriously. The yen briefly strengthened 0.4% to 156.51 on the comments – its strongest since September 18 – before fading.

AUD around 0.70, with markets awaiting the RBA decision – consensus expects a 25bp hike to 4.60%, the highest since 2011.

💬 : Dollar strength = high oil (pushing inflation expectations) + surging Treasury yields + safe-haven demand – a triple driver. The yen is under pressure near 157 – despite密集 verbal intervention from Japanese officials, the effect fades quickly against surging US yields. If the RBA hikes as expected, it will be another landmark in synchronized global central bank tightening.

5. ₿ Crypto: BTC Holds $83K – Crypto Shows Resilience

**Bitcoin extended its pullback after breaking $87,000 last week** – slipping from ~$84,000 over the weekend to a low of $82,600, recovering to ~$83,500 Monday morning, with losses narrowing to 1.14%. Ethereum at ~$2,688.50, roughly flat.

Bitcoin is still up nearly 40% for Q3, on track for its strongest third quarter since 2017. The $82,000-83,000 zone is the main support for this pullback; holding and reclaiming $85,000 would help restore upside momentum; a break below $82,000 could deepen the correction.

💬 : Against a backdrop of surging oil, 19-year high Treasury yields, and pressured US stocks, BTC fell only 1.14% – crypto is showing surprising resilience. This may suggest markets are repricing Bitcoin as a "geopolitical hedge" rather than a pure "risk asset." But $82,000 is the key line – a break could send it to $80,000.

🔥 Big Picture

US-Iran talks collapse → oil spikes → inflation fears return → Treasury yields hit 19-year high → global risk assets under pressure.

Four transmission chains running simultaneously:

Trump rejects Iran plan → oil briefly surges 4%+ → inflation fears build → 10-year Treasury hits 5.27% (highest since 2007) → US stocks fall across the board

Treasury yields surge + dollar holds above 101 → gold plunges nearly 4% below $4,150 → silver crashes 5.65%

High oil + October Fed hike odds rise above 70% → dollar holds two-month high → yen pressured near 157

Global risk assets under pressure → BTC holds $83,000 (only -1.14%) → crypto shows relative resilience

Today (September 29) to watch:

RBA rate decision (expected +25bp to 4.60%, highest since 2011)

Can Qatari mediators arrange a new US-Iran round? – key to oil's direction

US consumer confidence – a thermometer for economic resilience

#USIranTalks #StraitOfHormuz #Oil #Treasuries #Fed #RateHikes #DXY #Gold #Bitcoin #MarketUpdate

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

📆 全球市场速览 · 2026年9月29日

1. 📉 美伊谈判再度破裂，全球股债遭“双杀”

特朗普正式拒绝伊朗提出的“7天重开霍尔木兹海峡方案”，美伊谈判再次陷入僵局。伊朗方面坚持不软化条件，卡塔尔斡旋方仍在努力促成双方今明两天通过斡旋方进行新一轮会谈。

受此影响���全球市场呈现典型的“滞胀交易”格局——油价冲高回落、美债收益率飙升、股市承压、黄金白银暴跌、美元维持高位。

美股周一全线收跌——道指跌0.67%报51,481.51点，标普500跌0.77%报7,683.69点，创8月20日以来最大单日跌幅，纳指跌0.92%报26,820.38点。半导体股多数收跌，费城半导体指数跌1.61%，ARM跌8.70%，高通跌7.17%，英特尔跌5.67%。大型科技股普遍下跌，特斯拉跌3.94%，Meta跌4.79%，英伟达逆势涨1.68%。

💬 ：油价上涨→通胀担忧→美债收益率飙升→股市承压，这条传导链正在被反复强化。但值得注意的是，英伟达因宣布1500亿美元股票回购计划逆势上涨，说明AI核心资产在市场动荡中仍具韧性，资金正在“选择性避险”。

2. 🏛️ 债市：10年期美债触及5.27%，创19年新高

美债遭遇历史性抛售——10年期美债收益率盘中最高升至5.2719%，创2007年以来新高，纽约尾盘报5.2361%；30年期美债收益率盘中最高触及5.581%，刷新2002年以来新高；2年期美债收益率报4.9305%，逼近5%关口。

全球债券市场同步承压——英国10年期国债收益率升至5.44%，为2007年以来最高；法国借贷成本达到2008年以来最高水平。

💬 ：债市正在同时定价两个恐惧——通胀黏性（油价高企传导至核心通胀）和财政赤字扩张（CBO预测债务利息2036年将达2.1万亿美元）。10年期5.27%是2007年以来最高，30年期5.58%是2002年以来最高——“5%无风险利率”的新常态正在被反复确认。市场预计美联储10月加息概率已升至70%以上。

3. 🛢️ 大宗商品：油价冲高回落，黄金白银遭���烈抛售

原油冲高回落——WTI原油期货此前一度涨超4%，随后大幅跳水转跌，报92.34美元/桶；布伦特原油一度涨近4%后转跌，报97.38美元/桶。消息面上，有报道称美国官员表示特朗普已准备好放宽对伊朗的制裁并解冻其资产，以换取伊核问题进展，这一消息导致油价盘中跳水。

黄金白银暴跌——现货黄金跌3.96%报4,115.24美元/盎司，盘中最低触及4,110.75美元，创逾七周低位；现货白银跌5.65%报60.63美元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货跌4.00%报4,148.50美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌5.82%报61.03美元/盎司。

国内多家品牌金饰价格大幅下调——周生生报价1245元/克，较前一日跌27元；老庙黄金报价1242元/克，较前一日跌33元；周大福报价1246元/克，较前一日跌32元。

💬 ：黄金白银正经历“完美风暴”——油价上涨→通胀担忧→美联储加息预期升温→美元走强+美债收益率飙升，三重利空同���压制贵金属。分析师直言“原油大涨意味着通胀可能更棘手，美联储将更紧缩，而美债收益率上升和美元处于数周高位共同形成‘完美风暴’推动金属价格大跌”。4,100美元是黄金短期关键支撑——若失守，下一站4,000美元。

4. 💵 汇市：美元维持两个月高位，日元承压

美元指数报101.21附近，基本持平，此前曾触及101.27，9月有望上涨1.8%，为6月以来最强劲的月度表现。美元兑日元报157.36附近，日元回吐了周一早盘的大部分涨幅。

日本最高外汇事务官三村淳再度警告市场，应认真对待日美两国就日元过度贬值发出的“非常明确”的信号。受此言论影响，日元周一一度升值0.4%至156.51，为9月18日以来最强水平，但此后涨幅逐渐消退。

澳元报0.70附近，市场等待澳大利亚联储利率决议——市场普遍预期将加息25个基点至4.60%，达到2011年以来最高水平。

💬 点评：美元强势 = 油价高企（推高通胀预期）+ 美债收益率飙升 + 避险需求，三重驱动。日元在157附近承压——尽管日本官员密集“口头干预”，但在美债收益率飙升的大背景下，干预效果迅速消退。澳联储若如期加息，将是全球央行“同步紧缩”的又一标志性事件。

5. ₿ 加密货币：BTC守83,000美元，加密市场展现韧性

比特币延续了上周突破87,000美元后的回调——周末从约84,000美元下滑至最低82,600美元，周一早晨回升至约83,500美元，跌幅收窄至1.14%。以太坊报约2,688.50美元，基本持平。

比特币三季度累计涨幅仍逼近40%，有望创下2017年以来最强三季度表现。82,000-83,000美元区间是当前回调的主要支撑区域；若能守住并重新站上85,000美元，有助于恢复上行动能；若跌破82,000美元，则可能加深修正幅度。

💬 ：在油价飙升、美债收益率创19年新高、美股承压的背景下，BTC仅跌1.14%——加密市场展现出了令人意外的韧性。这或许说明市场正在将比特币重新定价为“地缘对冲资产”而非纯粹的“风险资产”。但82,000美元是关键防线，若失守，下一支撑在80,000美元。

🔥 整体判断

美伊谈判破裂 → 油价冲高 → 通胀担忧重燃 → 美债收益率创19年新高 → 全球风险资产承压。

四条清晰的传导链正在同时运转：

特朗普拒绝伊朗方案 → 油价一度涨超4% → 通胀担忧升温 → 10年期美债收益率触及5.27%（2007年以来最高）→ 美股三大指数全线收跌

美债收益率飙升 + 美元维持101上方 → 黄金暴跌近4%失守4,150美元 → 白银暴跌5.65%

油价高企 + 美联储10月加息概率升至70%+ → 美元维持两个月高位 → 日元157附近承压

全球风险资产承压 → BTC守83,000美元（仅跌1.14%）→ 加密市场展现相对韧性

今日（9月29日）重点关注：

澳大利亚联储利率决议（预计加息25bp至4.60%，2011年以来最高）

卡塔尔斡旋方能否促成美伊新一轮会谈——油价走向的���键

美国消费者信心指数——经济韧性的温度计

#美伊谈判 #霍尔木兹海峡 #油价 #美债 #美联储 #加息 #美元 #黄金 #比特币 #市场复盘

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

📆 Global Markets Snapshot · September 28, 2026

1. 🕊️ Trump Rejects Iran's "7-Day Plan" – Talks Collapse Again

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, through Qatari mediators, submitted a "7-day plan" to the US – if Washington lifts its naval blockade and meets related conditions, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen within 7 days, US-Iran talks would resume, and the plan also demanded the unfreezing of at least $12 billion in Iranian assets and the lifting of oil sanctions.

Trump formally rejected the plan over the weekend. He simultaneously said he expects US-Iran talks to restart within the next week, while hinting that new military strikes on Iran cannot be ruled out before the November midterms.

💬 : The US-Iran talks have once again played out the "close to a deal → sudden collapse" script. Trump's rejection means the Strait of Hormuz has no near-term path to reopening, and geopolitical premium is back in control of oil pricing. But Trump also signaled "talks could restart next week," suggesting the diplomatic window isn't fully closed.

2. 🛢️ Oil: Rebounds Over 2% – Geopolitical Premium Burns Again

Oil rebounded sharply after Trump rejected Iran's plan. WTI +2.44% at $94.666/bbl, Brent +2.10% at $99.490/bbl. Brent briefly broke above $106 intraday, with WTI touching above $93.55.

Oil had fallen sharply on Friday when Iran first proposed the plan, with WTI closing -2.33% at $92.41/bbl, but after the weekend rejection, prices quickly recovered.

💬 : Oil is being driven entirely by every twist in US-Iran talks. US officials revealed that nearly 40 million barrels of oil have passed through the Strait of Hormuz under US escort in the past 48 hours – but if talks collapse, that channel could be blocked again at any moment. $95-100 is the new price center.

3. 🏛️ Bonds: 10-Year Treasury Yield Approaches 5.2% – Highest Since 2007

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to near 5.2% on Monday, holding at its highest level since July 2007. The 2-year rose to 4.90%, the 30-year to 5.52%.

Market pricing shows a ~66% probability of a Fed hike in October. US August core capital goods orders rose more than expected, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed a sharp rise in September inflation expectations, further reinforcing expectations of continued Fed tightening.

💬 : 5.2% on the 10-year is the highest since 2007. Goldman expects the Fed to complete its final hike of this cycle at the October 27 meeting – meaning the "last hike" expectation is being priced in, but until then, the bond market will remain under immense pressure.

4. 💵 Forex: Dollar Near Two-Month High – Yen Under Pressure

The dollar index at 101.10-101.15, holding near a two-month high, on track for a ~1.7% gain in September – its best monthly performance since June. USD/JPY +0.3% to around 157.78, with the yen under pressure.

💬 : Dollar strength = hawkish Fed expectations + US-Iran tensions pushing oil higher + safe-haven demand. This week's nonfarm payrolls and PCE data will determine whether the dollar can break above 101.5.

5.🥇Gold: Plunges Nearly 3% Below $4,200 – Rate Expectations Crush

Spot gold fell sharply on Monday, breaking below $4,190/oz, down 2.22% on the day to $4,157.04/oz. Spot silver fell 4% to $61.7/oz.

Rising October Fed hike expectations, a stronger dollar, and surging Treasury yields – triple negatives crushing precious metals. Domestic Chinese gold jewelry prices were cut across the board, with Lao Feng Xiang quoting 1,276 yuan/gram, down 16 yuan from the previous day.

💬 : Gold is caught in a brutal tug-of-war between "geopolitical safe-haven" and "rate headwinds," and this time rate expectations have won decisively. Huatai Futures noted that the stronger-than-expected US PMI data boosted expectations for further hikes this year, pressuring precious metals short-term. $4,150 is key near-term support.

6. ₿ Crypto: BTC Steadies at $83K – ETF Inflows Strongest of the Year

Bitcoin continued to find a bottom after losing the $85,000 level, steadying around $83,000 – hitting a 24-hour low of $82,799, now at $83,136, -1.61%; Ethereum at $2,649, -2.08%.

But institutional inflows continue – US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw seven consecutive days of net inflows, totaling ~$2.98 billion, with ~$2.56 billion in September alone. September 22 saw $1 billion in single-day net inflows – the largest of 2026 – pushing year-to-date net flows positive for the first time since April.

💬 : Short-term price pressure contrasts sharply with persistent institutional buying. Trump's hint at possible military strikes on Iran before the midterms is adding uncertainty to risk assets. $83,000 is the key line – a break could send BTC to $80,000 support.

🔥 Big Picture

Trump rejects Iran's "7-day plan," talks collapse again – oil rebounds, 10-year Treasury approaches 5.2%, gold plunges nearly 3%, dollar near two-month high.

Three transmission chains running simultaneously:

Trump rejects Iran plan → oil rebounds over 2% (Brent back to $99) → inflation fears return → 10-year Treasury approaches 5.2% (highest since 2007)

October Fed hike expectations rise (66%) + high oil → dollar approaches 101.5 → gold plunges nearly 3% below $4,200 → silver -4%

Geopolitical uncertainty + hike expectations → BTC pressured at $83K → but ETFs see seven straight days of ~$3B inflows → institutional vs. retail divergence widens

Super events this week (Sept 28 - Oct 2):

Tuesday US August PCE inflation – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge

Friday US September nonfarm payrolls – the key data determining an October hike

US-Iran follow-up talks – Trump says "restart expected next week" – will it happen?

#USIranTalks #StraitOfHormuz #Oil #Treasuries #Fed #RateHikes #DXY #Gold #Bitcoin #MarketUpdate

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

📆 全球市场速览 · 2026年9月28日

1. 🕊️ 特朗普拒绝伊朗“7天方案”，美伊谈判再现破裂

伊朗外长阿拉格齐通过卡塔尔调解方向美国提交了一项“7天方案”——如果美方解除对伊朗的海上封锁并满足相关条件，霍尔木兹海峡将在7天内重新开放，美伊谈判也将重启，方案还要求解冻至少120亿美元的伊朗资产并解除对伊石油制裁。

特朗普于周末正式拒绝了这一方案。他同时表示，预计美伊将在未来一周内重启谈判，并暗示在11月中期选举前不排除对伊朗采取新的军事打击。

💬 ：美伊谈判再次上演“接近达成→突然破裂”的剧本。特朗普的拒绝意味着霍尔木兹海峡短期内无望恢复通航，地缘��价重新主导油价定价。但特朗普同时又释放“预计下周重启谈判”的信号，说明外交窗口并未完全关闭。

2. 🛢️ 原油：油价反弹超2%，地缘溢价重新燃烧

油价在特朗普拒绝伊朗方案后大幅反弹。WTI原油涨2.44%报94.666美元/桶，布伦特原油涨2.10%报99.490美元/桶。盘中布伦特一度突破106美元，WTI触及93.55美元上方。

上周五油价曾因伊朗提出方案而大幅回落，WTI收跌2.33%至92.41美元/桶，但周末美方拒绝方案后，油价迅速收复失地。

💬 ：油价走势完全由美伊谈判的每一个转折驱动。美国官员透露，过去48小时内已有近4000万桶石油在美国护航下通过霍尔木兹海峡——但一旦谈判破裂，这条通道随时可能再次受阻。95-100美元是新的价格中枢。

3. 🏛️ 债市：10年期美债收益率逼近5.2%，创2007年以来新高

10年期美债收益率周一升至5.2%附近，维持2007年7月以来最高水平。2年期收益率升至4.90%，30年期升至5.52%。

市场定价显示美联储10月加息概率约为66%。美国8月关键制造业资本品新订单增幅高于预期，密歇根大学消费者信心调查亦显示9月通胀预期大幅上升，进一步强化了美联储继续紧缩的预期。

💬 ：5.2%的10年期收益率是2007年以来最高。高盛预计美联储将在10月27日会议上完成本轮最后一次加息——这意味着“最后一次加息”的预期正在被定价，但在此之前，债市仍将承受巨大压力。

4. 💵 汇市：美元逼近两个月高位，日元承压下滑

美元指数报101.10-101.15，维持在近两个月高位附近，9月累计涨幅有望达到约1.7%，创6月以来最佳单月表现。美元兑日元上涨0.3%至157.78附近，日元承压下滑。

💬 ：美元强势 = 美联储鹰派预期 + 美伊紧张推高油价 + 避险需求。本周非农和PCE数据将决定美元能否突破101.5关口。

5. 🥇 黄金：暴跌近3%失守4200美元，加息预期全面压制

现货黄金周一大幅下跌，失守4190美元/盎司，日内跌幅达2.22%，现报4157.04美元/盎司。现货白银同步下跌4%至61.7美元/盎司。

美联储10月加息预���升温、美元走强、美债收益率飙升——三重利空同时压制贵金属。国内多家品牌金饰价格集体下调，老凤祥报价1276元/克，较前一日跌16元。

💬 ：黄金正处于“地缘避险”与“利率利空”的残酷拉锯中，而这次利率预期彻底占了上风。华泰期货指出，超预期的美国PMI数据推升了年内继续加息的预期，对贵金属形成短期压制。4150美元是短期关键支撑。

6. ₿ 加密货币：BTC企���8.3万美元，ETF资金流入创年内最强

比特币在失守8.5万美元关口后不断寻底，暂企稳在8.3万美元水平，24小时低见82799美元，现报83136美元，跌1.61%；以太坊报2649美元，跌2.08%。

但机构资金持续涌入——美国现货比特币ETF连续七天净流入，累计流入约29.8亿美元，9月以来累计流入约25.6亿美元。9月22日单日净流入达10亿美元，为2026年最大单日流入，推动年内净流入自4月以来首次转正。

💬 ：价格短期承压与机构持续买入形成鲜明对比。特朗普暗示可能在中期选举前对伊朗采取军事打击，加剧了风险资产的不确定性。8.3万美元是关键防线——若失守，下一支撑在8万美元。

🔥 整体判断

特朗普拒绝伊朗“7天方案”，地缘谈判再次破裂——油价反弹、美债收益率逼近5.2%、黄金暴跌近3%、美元逼近两个月高位。

三条清晰的传导链正在同时运转：

特朗普拒绝伊���方案 → 油价反弹超2%（布油重回99美元）→ 通胀担忧重燃 → 10年期美债逼近5.2%（2007年以来最高）

美联储10月加息预期升温（66%）+ 油价高企 → 美元逼近101.5 → 黄金暴跌近3%失守4200 → 白银跌4%

地缘不确定性 + 加息预期 → BTC承压于8.3万美元 → 但ETF连续七天净流入近30亿美元 → 机构与散户分歧加大

本周（9月28日-10月2日）超级事件：

周二 美国8月PCE通胀数据——美联储最关注的通胀指标

周五 美国9月非农就业报告——决定10月加息与否的关键数据

美伊后续谈判——特朗普说“预计下周重启”，能兑现吗？

#美伊谈判 #霍尔木兹海峡 #油价 #美债 #美联储 #加息 #美元 #黄金 #比特币 #市场复盘

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

精准如算法，圆满如明月。🌕
这个中秋，Zeuspace 与您一同守望市场的每一次波动，也守望每一份团圆。
愿您的策略稳健，收益如满月般圆满。
中秋快乐！🥮

#Zeuspace #量化交易 #中秋快乐 #MidAutumnFestival

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

Precision in the numbers. Clarity in the strategy.

This Mid-Autumn Festival, we’re celebrating the same things that drive our trading: #Precision, #Balance, and the pursuit of the "Full" picture. 📈🌕

Whether you’re gazing at the moon or the charts, may your night be bright and your returns bright.

Happy Mid-Autumn Festival from Zeuspace! 🥮🚀

#Zeuspace #Quant #MidAutumnFestival #Trading #Fintech #Mooncake

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

📆 Global Markets Snapshot · September 23, 2026

1. 📈 Stocks: Nasdaq 4-Day Record Streak – Chips Steal the Show

US markets closed mixed on Tuesday – Nasdaq +0.45% at 27,244.28, its fourth consecutive record close; S&P 500 -0.06 points at 7,764.64; Dow -0.36% at 51,863.69.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose over 2%, its highest close since mid-July. Storage names surged: SanDisk +6%+, Micron +5%, Seagate +4%+, Western Digital and SK Hynix +3%+. Viking Therapeutics soared 35%+ – its best single-day performance since February 2024.

Asia: Nikkei 225 +1.38% at 65,018.95; KOSPI +0.15% at 7,017.91. Hong Kong HSI +0.18% at 25,087.75. Shanghai Composite +0.06% at 3,952.13.

💬 : The Nasdaq's fourth straight record close, with chips as the absolute star. The broad storage rally shows – AI hardware demand is completely immune to macro headwinds. But the Dow fell for a second day, showing traditional value stocks remain under pressure in a high-rate environment. Markets are experiencing an extreme "AI hardware vs. everything else" style split.

2. 🏛️ Bonds: Yields Rise Across the Curve – 2-Year Auction at Highest Since May 2024

Treasury yields rose across the board – 2-year +0.3bp at 4.754%, 3-year +0.4bp at 4.82%, 5-year +1.3bp at 4.84%, 10-year +1bp at 4.963%, 30-year +1.6bp at 5.302%.

The Treasury auctioned $69B in 2-year notes at a high yield of 4.787% – the highest since May 2024, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.63. Post-auction, the 2-year briefly climbed to 4.766%.

💬 : The 10-year is locked in a tug-of-war below 5%, while the 2-year auction hit a near-18-month high – markets are persistently pricing a "higher for longer" rate environment. Although falling oil briefly provided buying support, it faded quickly as oil bounced off its lows – inflation concerns haven't truly disappeared.

3. 💵 Forex: Dollar Nears 100.7, 1.5-Month High – Yen Falls for Fourth Day, Retreating to 158

The dollar index rose for a second straight day to around 100.60, hitting 100.703 intraday – its highest since July 30. USD/JPY at 157.63, with the yen weakening for a fourth consecutive session – down 0.91% cumulatively over the prior three days. EUR at $1.1440, GBP at $1.3330.

💬 : The hawkish Fed hike's aftermath + the BOJ's "dovish hike" hangover – USD/JPY is retesting the 158 level. Japan's three-day holiday (Sept 21-23) thinned liquidity, amplifying yen selling pressure. Japan's Finance Ministry conducted a rate check last Friday – intervention risk is rising, but markets are still testing Tokyo's resolve.

4. 🛢️ Commodities: Oil Falls for Sixth Day, Gold V-Shaped Reversal, Copper Nears Record High

Oil fell for a sixth consecutive session – WTI October -1.24% at $94.59/bbl**, **Brent November -1.09% at $99.25/bbl. Saudi Arabia is in the early stages of restarting its East-West pipeline. US and Iranian officials held three-hour talks during the UN General Assembly, with Trump calling them "very smooth." Iran said if the US reduces military pressure and lifts its port blockade, it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.

Gold staged a V-shaped reversal – falling over 1% to $4,291 intraday before rebounding nearly $80 to **close +0.34% at $4,358.58/oz**; spot silver +1.49% at $67.01/oz.

LME copper rose for a sixth straight day, closing less than 1% from its all-time high at $14,748.5/ton. Falling inventories + pre-holiday buying demand suggest tightening spot supply.

💬 : The US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough is squeezing out oil's geopolitical premium – Brent broke below $100 after six straight declines. But Iran's "reopen within seven days" comment is a double-edged sword: if it happens, oil could fall further; if it fails, the geopolitical premium snaps right back. Gold's V-shaped reversal is notable – closing higher despite the Fed hike and a strong dollar suggests the "bad news priced in" logic is taking hold. Copper nearing its record high is another important signal: the reflation trade in physical assets is running parallel to the tightening trade in financial assets.

5. ₿ Crypto: BTC Nears $86K – Over $1B in Shorts Liquidated

**Bitcoin briefly hit $87,363 intraday – its highest since January** – before pulling back to consolidate around $86,100, up 14.50% over seven days. Ethereum at $2,753, XRP at $1.57, Dogecoin +~11%.

**Bitcoin spot ETFs saw ~$1B in single-day net inflows – the highest since late October 2025**. Total crypto market cap briefly returned above $3 trillion. **Short liquidations exceeded $1B**, with perpetual open interest rising to ~$160B.

💬 : BTC continued to strengthen on the US-Iran diplomatic easing + massive ETF inflows, with shorts experiencing a textbook squeeze. $85,800-86,000 is near-term support, with $86,600-87,000 as prior-high resistance. Options sentiment is bullish – BTC call open interest is concentrated at $90,000 and $100,000 strikes. But rapidly rising perpetual leverage means short-term volatility risk is building.

🔥 Big Picture

US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough + oil's sixth straight decline + Nasdaq's fourth record close – markets are experiencing a resonance of "geopolitical cooling" and "AI hardware euphoria."

Three transmission chains running simultaneously:

US-Iran three-hour talks + Iran's "reopen within seven days" condition → Brent breaks below $100 (sixth straight decline) → inflation fears ease → gold V-shaped reversal closes higher

Chips rise for a sixth straight day + storage names surge → Nasdaq fourth record close → capital continues to flood into AI hardware

Dollar index nears 100.7, a 1.5-month high → yen falls for fourth day, retreating to 158 → intervention risk rising for Japan

Today (September 23) to watch:

Iranian President Pezeshkian's UNGA speech – more easing signals?

US September Richmond Fed manufacturing index (prior 4, est. 2) – economic momentum signal

USD/JPY at 157-158 – will intervention risk materialize after Japan's holiday?

#USStocks #NasdaqRecord #Semiconductors #Treasuries #DXY #JPY #Oil #Gold #Copper #Bitcoin #MarketUpdate

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

📆 全球市场速览 · 2026年9月23日

1. 📈 股市：纳指四连涨创新高，芯片股独领风骚

美股三大指数周二收盘分化——纳指涨0.45%报27244.28点，连续第四日创收盘历史新高；标普500微跌0.06点报7764.64点；道指跌0.36%报51863.69点。

费城半导体指数涨超2%，创7月中旬以来收盘新高。存储概念股普遍大涨：闪迪涨超6%，美光科技涨5%，希捷科技涨超4%，西部数据、SK海力士涨超3%。Viking Therapeutics暴涨超35%，创2024年2月以来最佳单日表现。

亚太市场：日经225涨1.38%报65018.95点，韩国综合指数微涨0.15%报7017.91点。港股恒指涨0.18%报25087.75点。A股上证指数涨0.06%报3952.13点。

💬 ：纳指连续第四日创新高，芯片股是绝对主角。存储芯片的集体大涨说明——AI硬件需求逻辑完全免疫宏观逆风。但道指连续两日下跌，说明传统价值股在利率高企的环境下持续承压。市场正在经历极致的“AI硬件 vs 其他一切”的风格撕裂。

2. 🏛️ 债市：收益率集体上行，2年期拍卖利率创2024年5月以来最高

美债收益率全线走高——2年期涨0.3BP报4.754%，3年期涨0.4BP报4.82%，5年期涨1.3BP报4.84%，10年期涨1BP报4.963%，30年期涨1.6BP报5.302%。

美国财政部拍卖690亿美元2年期国债，中标利率4.787%，创2024年5月以来最高，投标倍数2.63。拍卖结果公布后，2年期收益率一度攀升至4.766%。

💬 ：10年期美债在5%关口下方反复拉锯，2年期拍卖利率创近一年半新高——市场正在为“更高更久”的利率环境持续定价。尽管油价下跌一度为债市提供买盘支撑，但尾盘油价脱离低点后买盘迅速退潮，说明市场对通胀的担忧并未真正消退。

3. 💵 汇市：美元指数逼近100.7创一个半月新高，日元连四贬退守158

美元指数连续第二个交易日上涨，报100.60附近，盘中一度触及100.703，为7月30日以来��高。美元兑日元报157.63，日元连续第四个交易日走贬，前三个交易日累计贬值0.91%。欧元报1.1440美元，英镑报1.3330美元。

💬 ：美联储鹰派加息余波+日本央行“鸽派加息”后遗症——美元/日元正在重新测试158关口。日本9月21日至23日连休三天，流动性收窄放大了日元贬值压力。日本财务省上周五已进行汇率检查，干预风险正在上升，但市场仍在测试日方底线。

4. 🛢️ 大宗商品：原油六连跌，黄金V型反转，铜价逼近历史高点

原油连续第六日下跌——WTI 10月合约跌1.24%报94.59美元/桶，布伦特11月合约跌1.09%报99.25美元/桶。沙特正处于重启东西输油管道的早期阶段，美伊官员在联合国大会期间举行了三小时会谈，特朗普称“非常顺利”。伊朗表示若美国放松军事压力并解除港口封锁，可能在七天内重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。

黄金上演V型反转——盘中一度跌超1%至4291美元，随后暴力反弹近80美元，最终收涨0.34%报4358.58美元/盎司；现货白银收涨1.49%报67.01美元/盎司。

LME铜价连续第六日上涨，收盘距历史高点不到1%，收报14748.5美元/��。库存下降+节前采购需求，显示现货市场��应趋紧。

💬 ：美伊外交转机正在挤出原油的地缘溢价——六连跌后布油跌破100美元。但伊朗“七天内重开海峡”的表态是一把双刃剑：如果成真，油价可能进一步下行；如果破裂，地缘溢价会瞬间回来。黄金的V型反转值得关注——在美联储加息+美元走强的双重压制下仍能收涨，说明“利空出尽”的逻辑正在发挥作用。铜价逼近历史高点则是另一个重要信号：实物资产的再通胀交易正在与金融资产的紧缩交易并行。

5. ₿ 加密货币：BTC逼近8.6万美元，空头清算超10亿美元

比特币周二盘中一度升至87363美元，创1月以来新高，随后回落至86100美元附近盘整，过去7天累计上涨14.50%。以太坊报2753美元，XRP报1.57美元，Dogecoin涨约11%。

比特币现货ETF单日净流入约10亿美元，创2025年10月底以来新高。加密货币总市值盘中一度重返3万亿美元。空头清算超过10亿美元，永续���约未平仓规模升至约1600亿美元。

💬 ：BTC在美伊外交缓和+ETF大额流入的双重推动下持续走强，空头遭遇教科书级别的轧空。85800-86000美元是近期支撑区间，86600-87000美元为前高阻力区间。期权市场看涨情绪浓厚——BTC买权未平仓量主要集中在90000和100000美元行权价。但永续合约杠杆快速抬升，短线波动风险正在累积。

🔥 整体判断

美伊外交转机+油价六连跌+纳指四连涨创新高——市场正在经历“地缘降温”与“AI硬件狂欢”的共振。

三条清晰的传导链正在同时运转：

美伊三小时会谈+伊朗提出七天内重开海峡条件 → 布油跌破100美元（六连跌）→ 通胀担忧缓解 → 黄金V型反转收涨

芯片股连续第六日上涨+存储概念集体大涨 → 纳指四连涨创新高 → 资金持续涌入AI硬件

美元指数逼近100.7创一个半月新高 → 日元连四贬退守158 → 日本当局干预风险升温

今日（9月23日）重点关注：

伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬在联大发表讲话——是否释放更多缓和信号

美国9月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数（前值4，预期2���——经济动能信号

美元/日元157-158——日本假期结束后干预风险是否兑现？

#美股 #纳指新高 #芯片股 #美债 #美元 #日元 #原油 #黄金 #铜 #比特币 #市场复盘

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

苹果、华、小米等手机全线涨价的真相是？！手机的低价时代结束了吗？

#手机涨价 #苹果 ＃华为 #iphone18 #存储 #芯片 #海力士 #金融 #财经

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

🚀 香港重磅消息！

CBCX 荣幸赞助 HUIYU Finance Expo 2026 —— 金融、金融科技与数字资产的交汇之地。

如果你也在现场，欢迎来和 CBCX 团队交流。金融的未来正在加速，而 @CBCXMarkets 正站在浪潮中心。

📍 香港丽晶酒店 | 9月22日

#CBCX #HUIYUExpo #金融科技 #数字资产 #香港 #金融

[Zeuspace Group @ZeuspaceGroup]

🚀 Big news from Hong Kong!

CBCX is a proud sponsor of HUIYU Finance Expo 2026 — where finance, fintech, and digital assets meet.

If you’re at the expo, stop by and connect with the @CBCXMarkets team. The future of finance is moving fast — and CBCX is right in the middle of it.

#CBCX #HUIYUExpo #FinTech #DigitalAssets #HongKong #Finance