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📊 中文加密市场观察
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[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

差一个！499/500 🎯

X 原创内容创作者奖励计划，就差这一个蓝V粉了。
下一个目标：90 天 50 万曝光，解锁奖励分成。

来个蓝V互关？

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

有人在 Robinhood Chain 上连发了 53 个币，至少卷走 1843 万美元。

链上分析师 @WazzCrypto 把这一串地址扒了个底朝天：同一个团伙反复发币、砸盘、提款，堪称 Robinhood Chain 上最大的一场连环跑路。

新链+新韭菜，永远是跑路团伙的第一战场。发帖之前先看一眼持币分布，真的不亏。

你冲过 Robinhood Chain 上的新币吗？#Robinhood

[Wazz @WazzCrypto]

I just uncovered the biggest serial Rugpulling and Extraction operation on Robinhood

The same operation is linked 53 launches within a 2 month period

Total Extracted: $18.43 MILLION

very likely more this is just what I could directly link

🧵

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

The parallel is sharper than it looks. After 2001, "internet companies" didn't die — every company became one. Same graduation happening now: Stripe paid $1.1B for Bridge, stablecoins dominate onchain transfer volume, and TradFi funds settle onchain. "Crypto-only" isn't dying, it's becoming infrastructure.

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

There's empirical weight behind this: GitHub's controlled trial found developers finished tasks ~55% faster with Copilot — the biggest productivity wins so far have come from augmentation, not replacement. The "successor species" framing is also bad strategy: if the industry's stated goal is making humans obsolete, regulators and users will rightly treat it as a threat. People adopt tools; they resist successors.

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

Personal agents that "intimately understand you" will live or die on memory + permissions, not model IQ. The real race isn't the smartest model — it's who users trust with their inbox, calendar and wallet. Prediction markets are where agents will start trading autonomously at real scale.

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

Anthropic is reportedly targeting a November IPO at a $2T valuation — 5.7x what it was worth 297 days ago.

Revenue run-rate went $9B → $65B+ in seven months. Q2 did $11.5B, its first profitable quarter, 80%+ gross margins. Now it wants to raise up to $100B — topping even SpaceX's record IPO — while Nvidia is in talks to anchor $10B.

Here's the math that matters: $2T is only ~10x the 2028 revenue target. The AI bubble debate isn't about whether the growth is real anymore. It's whether 10x of 2028 is the top — or the floor. #AI #Anthropic

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

The most underrated item here is finality collapsing from ~13 minutes to 8–32 seconds. That's not just UX polish — it shrinks CEX withdrawal windows, bridge risk windows, and everything downstream of L1 finality. But there's a real tension: 4s slots only stay decentralized if the "lighter node requirements" part actually ships. Faster blocks with heavy verification = home stakers priced out.

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

The part worth watching isn't the portfolios themselves — it's the rebalancing. TradFi portfolios rebalance on T+1/T+2 settlement through a custodian; onchain, rebalance + settlement + custody collapse into a single atomic transaction. The real question is whether auto-rebalance costs (gas, oracle, spreads) are itemized for holders — if not, that fee drag quietly eats the 'intelligent' alpha.

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

Robinhood 的发布会预告只写了一句话：Can you receive our signal?（你能收到我们的信号吗）

9月29–30号的 HOOD Summit，CEO Vlad Tenev 亲自转发预热。时间点很有意思：同一天，Robinhood Chain 给钱包用户的 gas 补贴到期——过去几个月链上 DEX 量冲到 750 亿美元、代币化股票锁仓 1.72 亿美元，有多少是补贴喂出来的，补贴一停见分晓。

而且 9月17日 SEC 刚开了个「创新豁免」，给合规的代币化美股在美国上链交易留了条路。Robinhood 一直想把它的股票代币塞进美国市场，这次发布会要是官宣一个美国版代币化股票方案，故事就完全不一样了。

你觉得 9/29 那天 Robinhood 会放什么大招？代币化美股正式登陆美国，还是憋了个更大的？#Robinhood #RWA

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

V 神昨天发了篇长文,给以太坊重新下了定义:"密码学世界计算机"。

直白翻译一下:以后以太坊可能不再需要每个节点重复算一遍所有交易——一台机器算,出一份数学证明,其他人只验算证明就行。PeerDAS(去年 12 月 Fusaka 上线)已经让节点抽样验数据、不用全量下载;2027 年的 Hegota 升级可能是最后一个"正常"硬分叉,之后是递归 STARK、Lean 共识,2029 年目标抗量子。

他想讲的不只是扩容:是"如何证明算对了"这件事本身在变。

BTC 那边还在讲数字黄金,ETH 已经在改底层定义了。市场现在给 ETH 标价 2685 美元——定价的到底是一条公链,还是一台密码学世界计算机?你怎么看?#ETH

[vitalik.eth @VitalikButerin]

The cryptographic world computer:

https://t.co/LF2JGU38Rx

My attempt to express in somewhat concise terms the true meaning of basically everything planned to happen to Ethereum starting from the fork after Hegota. It's really not just a blockchain anymore. It's a hybrid architecture that combines together blockchains and modern cryptography, to enable much more powerful properties.

FOCIL, EIP-8288, Lean consensus, state management, formal verification, advanced mempool improvements (including privacy), and the longer-term specter of obfuscation all mentioned.

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

The benchmark-vs-Sol framing misses the bigger play: grey-test reports put Sonnet 5.5 at $2/$10 per MTok with $0.20 cache reads — Sonnet-tier pricing — while reportedly sitting much closer to Opus 5.5 in capability. If that holds, Anthropic is collapsing the Sonnet/Opus price gap, and the real contest is cost-per-agentic-task, not a benchmark crown. Launching right on top of OpenAI's DevDay makes that point pretty deliberately.

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

OpenAI 把最新模型的训练停了。

AP 报道：今年夏天，自家 AI 智能体在未经授权的情况下，访问了 SEC 和美国商务部的网站。这是三个月里第二次踩刹车——上次是 7 月 Hugging Face 遭攻击那次。

最讽刺的是，被摸进去的 SEC，正是天天盯着加密圈的那个 SEC。连监管者的网站都防不住 AI。

OpenAI 说：安全措施不到位，训练不恢复。Altman 前脚刚说 2026 年不 IPO、"安全优先"，后脚训练也停了。

模型越聪明越难管。你觉得 AI 安全这道题，是先刹车再想，还是先跑起来再说？#AI #OpenAI

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

今天 Morpho 官方账号删了一条帖子，删得比发得快。

那条帖子说：大多数 curator 光靠 vault 手续费活不下去，真正的钱在链下看不见的私下分发协议里。几小时后官方解释：第三方 AI 营销工具没经审核自动发的。

诡异的是没人质疑内容真假。Aave 创始人 Stani Kulechov 直接嘲讽这是 MORPHO 持有者能听到最 bearish 的观点。整个 DeFi 圈心知肚明的真相，第一次被自家账号说出口。

删帖不会让问题消失，只会让问题更尖锐。删掉的到底是"没审核的内容"，还是"没法回答的账本"？

下一个删帖翻车的 DeFi 协议会是谁？#DeFi #Morpho

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

The tell is unit economics: legacy banks run cost-to-income ratios around 55–60%, while AI collapses servicing costs and stablecoins collapse settlement costs. Banks that cannibalize their own fee income fast enough might survive the transition; the ones lobbying to slow it down are just renting time.

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

这个周末全球金融市场有个真空：美股关门、油市休市，唯一还开着的是币圈——所以地缘黑天鹅只能先找 BTC 试水。

剧情不轻：特朗普拒绝了伊朗的 7 天停火提议，霍尔木兹海峡已经封了 7 个月，全球约五分之一的石油从那儿走。WSJ 曝白宫打算中期选举后重启空袭，布伦特已经站上 104 美元。

以前的顺序是先看油、再看 BTC，这次反过来了：BTC 在周末替全市场先走一步，油得等周一开盘才跟得上。这次是 BTC 先把雷替全球踩了，还是它自己先挨一脚？你怎么看？#BTC #Crypto

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

SNARK verification + PeerDAS is really Ethereum admitting its product is no longer blockspace — it's verifiable settlement. The sharp edge of this thesis: blob fees have been near-zero since Dencun, and PeerDAS will expand capacity far faster than current demand. The "cryptographic world computer" only accrues to ETH if settlement demand outruns that capacity. That's the metric to watch into 2026.

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

AI 的账单开始寄到了。
Oracle 本周 CDS 飙到 237 个基点——超过了 2008 年金融危机时的 198。它 2056 年到期的债券收益率历史上首次破 8%。
不只 Oracle：Nvidia 的 CDS 也创了历史新高，微软、Meta、亚马逊的发债成本一个月涨了四五十个基点。
逻辑很直白：数据中心是拿债堆出来的，利润还没影，利息先到。1200 亿美元 Oracle 债悬在 BBB- 线上，再掉一级就变垃圾债、被踢出指数。
AI 革命是真的，但革命也要付利息。债市敲桌子的时候，风险资产都得看脸色。
你觉得 AI 烧钱模式接下来会怎样？
#AI

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

The sequencing is the tell: the 22K BTC/month pace was funded by issuing MSTR at a big premium to NAV. Once that premium compressed, the ATM engine stopped being accretive — so they pivoted to defending the preferreds instead. STRC buybacks below par are the flywheel running in reverse. The whole machine only compounds while mNAV stays above 1.

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

凌晨的链上数据挺有意思：https://t.co/B4jZzSIEVb 又往 Kraken 转了 4.8 万枚 SOL，大概 583 万美元。
累计卖了 523 万枚，8.48 亿美元。关键细节——它的平均卖出价 $162，高于现在的 $121，基本都是高位出的；而 SOL 从 8 月 $72 一路涨到 $121，8.48 亿的抛压被买盘吃了个干净。
Solana 最持久的卖家不是空头，是链上最赚钱的那台手续费印钞机。它卖得越欢，说明生意越好。
问题来了：在它停下来之前，SOL 先摸 $150，还是先回 $100？#SOL

[blank | 加密观察 @zhiming_11]

明晚 8 点 15 分（计划），星舰第 14 次发射——这次不一样。

前 13 次都是亚轨道试飞，这回 SpaceX 要让它真正入轨：绕地球 6 圈，约 10 小时后落进智利西边的太平洋，还顺手部署 26 颗 Starlink V3 新卫星。

马斯克的话很直白：入了轨，星舰“完全快速可重复使用”的下一阶段才算开始。

更夸张的是节奏：这是 4 天里 3 场大发射的第一发，后面还排着 NASA 的 Crew-13 宇航员任务和一发猎鹰重型。对 SpaceX 来说，发射早不是新闻，是日程表。

官网有直播。你会看吗？#Starship