The Fed is printing money to buy US Treasury bills... more than during Covid.
- Covid: ~$320B
- Last 9 months: ~$355B
Everyone is talking about the Fed hike... no one is talking about Warsh printing money Covid-style to buy UST bills.
At the same time, Bessent is issuing more UST bills to buy back US long-term debt.
In other words, the Treasury buyback is nothing else than QE in disguise.
We don't own enough hard assets for what's coming.
The bottom line is clear: the U.S. cannot stop Trump, and the fiscal deficit remains unaddressed.
With the Treasury running out of options, the Fed will have to step in. A short-term fix, yes, but at a high costโhigher inflation, surging debt, and elevated interest rates. All roads lead to stagflation.
The last time US Treasury yields were this high, total US national debt stood at just $8.9 trillion.
Today, US debt stands at $40.1 trillion. That's +$31.2 trillion more, or over 4.5 TIMES higher.
This means every 1 percentage point in the average cost of servicing the debt now translates to ~$401 billion per year in interest expense.
In 2007, the same 1 percentage point translated to just ~$89 billion.
Thatโs an additional ~$312 BILLION in annual interest expense for every percentage point increase in borrowing cost.
This is a vastly different situation than it was 19 years ago.
The bond market matters more now than ever.
@GordonGekko420 Two giant pandas would be an incredible achievement. When we had to send our pandas back, the whole country wept.
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