Zach Lozar @zlozo - Twitter Profile

GOV: We have a housing crisis. Prices are too high. ME: I agree. Supply is too low. GOV: So we have a plan. We’re going to subsidize demand. ME: …What does that mean? GOV: We’re going to give people money to buy houses. ME: But there aren't enough houses. GOV: Right. So we’ll help them bid harder. ME: If you have 10 people fighting for 1 house, and you give them all cash... the price just goes up. GOV: Then we’ll give them more cash. ME: That’s not a solution. That’s inflation. GOV: It’s "First Time Homebuyer Assistance." ME: Okay, let’s back up. Why are houses so expensive in the first place? GOV: Because we made them the perfect investment vehicle. ME: How? GOV: First, the 30-year fixed mortgage. ME: That’s standard, right? GOV: Only in America. In other countries, rates float. Here, you can lock in a low rate for three decades. ME: Why would a bank take that risk? If inflation goes up, they lose money. GOV: Banks don’t take the risk. They sell the loan to us. ME: To the government? GOV: To Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. We guarantee the liquidity. ME: So the taxpayer subsidizes the risk so I can have cheap leverage? GOV: Correct. ME: And then I get to deduct the interest? GOV: Only on the first $750,000 of debt. ME: That seems... high. GOV: It used to be a million. We trimmed it. ME: But wait. If I rent, can I deduct my rent? GOV: No. ME: If I buy a small business, can I deduct the interest on the loan? GOV: It’s complicated. ME: But if I buy a giant house, I definitely can? GOV: Absolutely. We wrote it into the tax code. ME: So you’re paying me to borrow money to buy a bigger house than I need. GOV: We’re "incentivizing ownership." ME: What happens when I sell? GOV: The Capital Gains Exclusion! ME: How does that work? GOV: If you sell a stock for a $500,000 profit, you pay taxes. ME: Roughly 20%. GOV: If you sell your house for a $500,000 profit? ME: What do I pay? GOV: Zero. ME: Zero tax? GOV: As long as you lived there for two years. ME: So housing is the only asset class where I get subsidized 30-year leverage and tax-free profits? GOV: Pretty sweet deal, right? ME: So you turned shelter into a speculative financial asset. GOV: We call it "Generational Wealth." ME: Okay, so demand is juiced to the moon. Can we at least build more supply to bring prices down? GOV: Oh, absolutely not. ME: Why? GOV: Zoning. ME: I own land. Can I build a duplex? GOV: Illegal. Single-family only. ME: Can I build a granny flat? GOV: Only if you provide two parking spots and pass a shadow study. ME: So you made it illegal to build cheaper housing? GOV: We protect "Neighborhood Character." ME: But you spend billions on roads and utilities for the suburbs. GOV: Infrastructure investment. ME: So you subsidize the expensive sprawl, but ban the cheap density? GOV: Now you’re getting it. ME: This system seems designed to keep prices high. GOV: It is. ME: But you started this conversation by saying we have an "Affordability Crisis." GOV: We do. Prices are too high! ME: So we should lower them? GOV: No! We can’t lower prices. ME: Why not? GOV: Because then the voters lose their "Generational Wealth." ME: So we need high prices for the voters... and low prices for the buyers? GOV: Exactly. ME: That’s a paradox. GOV: It’s politics. ME: So what is your actual plan? GOV: We’re going to give first-time buyers $25,000. ME: Okay. I’m a seller. I list my house for $400,000. GOV: Uh huh. ME: I know every buyer just got a free $25,000 from the government. GOV: Right. ME: What do I do? GOV: You... keep the price the same? ME: I raise the price to $425,000. GOV: You wouldn't. ME: I absolutely would. The buyer can afford it now. GOV: But that just transfers the subsidy from the poor buyer to the rich seller! ME: Econ 101. GOV: We don’t think that will happen. ME: Just like you didn’t think $7,500 EV credits would make Ford raise the price of the F-150 Lightning by exactly $7,500? GOV: That was a coincidence. ME: You are trapping us in a box. GOV: It’s not a box. ME: What is it? GOV: It’s a Single Family Home with a 2.5% mortgage rate that you can never afford to sell. ME: ... GOV: Welcome to the American Dream.

DallasAptGP's tweet photo. GOV: We have a housing crisis. Prices are too high.

ME: I agree. Supply is too low.

GOV: So we have a plan. We’re going to subsidize demand.

ME: …What does that mean?

GOV: We’re going to give people money to buy houses.

ME: But there aren't enough houses.

GOV: Right. So we’ll help them bid harder.

ME: If you have 10 people fighting for 1 house, and you give them all cash... the price just goes up.

GOV: Then we’ll give them more cash.

ME: That’s not a solution. That’s inflation.

GOV: It’s "First Time Homebuyer Assistance."

ME: Okay, let’s back up. Why are houses so expensive in the first place?

GOV: Because we made them the perfect investment vehicle.

ME: How?

GOV: First, the 30-year fixed mortgage.

ME: That’s standard, right?

GOV: Only in America. In other countries, rates float. Here, you can lock in a low rate for three decades.

ME: Why would a bank take that risk? If inflation goes up, they lose money.

GOV: Banks don’t take the risk. They sell the loan to us.

ME: To the government?

GOV: To Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. We guarantee the liquidity.

ME: So the taxpayer subsidizes the risk so I can have cheap leverage?

GOV: Correct.

ME: And then I get to deduct the interest?

GOV: Only on the first $750,000 of debt.

ME: That seems... high.

GOV: It used to be a million. We trimmed it.

ME: But wait. If I rent, can I deduct my rent?

GOV: No.

ME: If I buy a small business, can I deduct the interest on the loan?

GOV: It’s complicated.

ME: But if I buy a giant house, I definitely can?

GOV: Absolutely. We wrote it into the tax code.

ME: So you’re paying me to borrow money to buy a bigger house than I need.

GOV: We’re "incentivizing ownership."

ME: What happens when I sell?

GOV: The Capital Gains Exclusion!

ME: How does that work?

GOV: If you sell a stock for a $500,000 profit, you pay taxes.

ME: Roughly 20%.

GOV: If you sell your house for a $500,000 profit?

ME: What do I pay?

GOV: Zero.

ME: Zero tax?

GOV: As long as you lived there for two years.

ME: So housing is the only asset class where I get subsidized 30-year leverage and tax-free profits?

GOV: Pretty sweet deal, right?

ME: So you turned shelter into a speculative financial asset.

GOV: We call it "Generational Wealth."

ME: Okay, so demand is juiced to the moon. Can we at least build more supply to bring prices down?

GOV: Oh, absolutely not.

ME: Why?

GOV: Zoning.

ME: I own land. Can I build a duplex?

GOV: Illegal. Single-family only.

ME: Can I build a granny flat?

GOV: Only if you provide two parking spots and pass a shadow study.

ME: So you made it illegal to build cheaper housing?

GOV: We protect "Neighborhood Character."

ME: But you spend billions on roads and utilities for the suburbs.

GOV: Infrastructure investment.

ME: So you subsidize the expensive sprawl, but ban the cheap density?

GOV: Now you’re getting it.

ME: This system seems designed to keep prices high.

GOV: It is.

ME: But you started this conversation by saying we have an "Affordability Crisis."

GOV: We do. Prices are too high!

ME: So we should lower them?

GOV: No! We can’t lower prices.

ME: Why not?

GOV: Because then the voters lose their "Generational Wealth."

ME: So we need high prices for the voters... and low prices for the buyers?

GOV: Exactly.

ME: That’s a paradox.

GOV: It’s politics.

ME: So what is your actual plan?

GOV: We’re going to give first-time buyers $25,000.

ME: Okay. I’m a seller. I list my house for $400,000.

GOV: Uh huh.

ME: I know every buyer just got a free $25,000 from the government.

GOV: Right.

ME: What do I do?

GOV: You... keep the price the same?

ME: I raise the price to $425,000.

GOV: You wouldn't.

ME: I absolutely would. The buyer can afford it now.

GOV: But that just transfers the subsidy from the poor buyer to the rich seller!

ME: Econ 101.

GOV: We don’t think that will happen.

ME: Just like you didn’t think $7,500 EV credits would make Ford raise the price of the F-150 Lightning by exactly $7,500?

GOV: That was a coincidence.

ME: You are trapping us in a box.

GOV: It’s not a box.

ME: What is it?

GOV: It’s a Single Family Home with a 2.5% mortgage rate that you can never afford to sell.

ME: ...

GOV: Welcome to the American Dream.

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Zach Lozar @zlozo

7 months ago

@remarks How much would this lower rates @grok?

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Zach Lozar @zlozo

7 months ago

@0xPolygon @telcoin Oh my @BergnerEric

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zlozo retweeted

Green Checkmarks

@AllGreenChecks

8 months ago

💰4 weeks straight of profit💰 🔥Let's make it 5!🔥 ⤵️Everything for Week 12 NFL Sunday⤵️ 9 Props + a Bonus play💰 #NFLPicks #Props #streak

AllGreenChecks's tweet photo. 💰4 weeks straight of profit💰

🔥Let's make it 5!🔥

⤵️Everything for Week 12 NFL Sunday⤵️

9 Props + a Bonus play💰

#NFLPicks #Props #streak https://t.co/AgmjwSUo1e

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Zach Lozar @zlozo

8 months ago

@ch1cken_t3nder Desirable!

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zlozo retweeted

Green Checkmarks

@AllGreenChecks

8 months ago

🔥Today we dropped the TNF props. 🔥 💥Tomorrow we want to drop a TNF parlay. 💥 Want to see the parlay? 5 Retweets/reposts and we drop it tomorrow afternoon🤑 Reply with a "TNF" and we will tag you when it drops. #TNFonPrime #parlay #htownmade #BillsMafia

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zlozo retweeted

Green Checkmarks

@AllGreenChecks

8 months ago

👇🏼New post on Substack👇🏼 Weekly recap before moving on to Week 12. 🏈 We got some things wrong, but we got more things right. It's been a fun 4 weeks. 4 weeks of profit(not-so-humble brag). 🤑💰🏧 Subscribe. Follow. Promote. Thank you for the support and please gamble responsibly. 👊🏼 https://t.co/xLWDvslub2