Zoltan D

I.decisions based not on rigid theories but on available info,usually imperfect calculations of what can be done rather than what theoretically ought to be done

[Zoltan D @Zoltan__D]

The Young Fed Rebel: When Warsh Opposed QE2, Yet Voted Yes

But Warsh wasn’t just executing decisions, he had his own convictions.

Picture this: It’s the fall of 2008, and the global financial system is in flames. Banks are collapsing one after another, markets are in panic, and the Fed is slashing interest rates to save whatever can be saved. In the middle of this chaos sits a 35-year-old governor, Kevin Warsh, one of Ben Bernanke’s closest confidants.

While most were focused on immediately extinguishing the fire, Warsh was already worried about something else: inflation. He didn’t want loose monetary policy to come back and bite them later.

Then came 2011. The Fed rolled out the massive $600 billion QE2 program, a huge round of Treasury purchases designed to push down long-term rates even further. Warsh openly opposed it. He thought it was ineffective and risky.

Yet he voted yes anyway.

At Ben Bernanke’s personal request. Because in the heat of the crisis, team unity mattered more than individual doubts. But the disagreement lingered. In March 2011, Warsh resigned from the Fed.

Warsh’s story isn’t just that of a loyal executor. It’s the story of a young governor trying to balance saving the moment with protecting the future in one of history’s greatest economic storms. A Wall Street insider who still thought with his own sense of responsibility.

And who ultimately chose to walk away rather than keep executing against his better judgment.

That’s the kind of character who still shapes how we think about the Fed today.

[Wall Street Apes @WallStreetApes]

This is what’s become of the streets of Los Angeles, California under Democrats control

The next clip shows LA in the 1960s. Before mass immigration, before mass diversity, before the cultural enrichment hit LA

It’s clear every part of our society went backwards

[Zoltan D @Zoltan__D]

@anatoliisharii https://t.co/hmxvKJMODP
It's interesting that ever since a shipment of Ukrainian gold of artistic origin was discovered, they've been avoiding us in Hungary 🤔

[Zoltan D @Zoltan__D]

I am attaching a video of the Hungarian Counter-Terrorism Center (TEK) action, where members of the Ukrainian Secret Service (SBU) were detained, who, at the request of the corrupt EU leadership, participated in the transportation of money and gold through the territory of Hungary to support the corrupt Ukrainian political elite.

[PiQ @PiQMarkets]

🇩🇪 Germany German Import Price Index (May) $EUR

Actual: 6.8%
Previous: 5.3%

[ifo Institut @ifo_Institut]

Die ifo Preiserwartungen sanken im Juni auf 26,4 Punkte, von 30,0 im Mai. Sie liegen seit März noch erheblich über dem Durchschnitt von 18,3 für den Zeitraum 2023 bis 2025. https://t.co/8iNFKCrB4I @KlausWohlrabe #ifoUmfrage

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

🔴 UK GDP YOY ACTUAL 0.9% (FORECAST 1.1%, PREVIOUS 1.1%) $MACRO

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

GERMAN REAL RETAIL SALES YOY ACTUAL 1.8% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS -0.3%) $MACRO

[Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud]

🌏 Asia's AI rally winners face a rising leverage problem - Nikkei Asia
https://t.co/LJAfVspKJg

[Zoltan D @Zoltan__D]

Most Asian stocks rose on Tuesday, with Chinese markets buoyed by stronger-than-expected business activity data, while strong gains in technology shares put regional bourses on track for a stellar second quarter. 

South Korea and Japan were the best performers for the quarter, as optimism over artificial intelligence drove outsized gains in local tech shares. 

Regional markets took a positive lead-in from Wall Street, where technology stocks drove strong gains in the overnight session. S&P 500 Futures were flat in Asian trade, with caution kicking in ahead of more potential U.S.-Iran peace talks and key labor data due later this week. 

China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 advanced over 1%, while the Shanghai Composite traded slightly higher. 

The bluechip index was trading up over 10% in the second quarter. 

China’s official manufacturing PMI unexpectedly returned to expansion territory in June at 50.3, while the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 and the composite gauge climbed to 50.6, indicating the economy continued to benefit from resilient high-tech exports.
The print indicated that exports continued to be the biggest drivers of China’s economy, helping offset sustained weakness in local demand. 
ING analysts said while Tuesday’s data showed some strength, it still heralded a potential slowdown in second-quarter economic growth.
This trend was likely to elicit more stimulus measures from Beijing in the coming months, ING analysts said.  

Chip rally caps one of Asia’s strongest quarters:

Tuesday marks the final trading day of the second quarter, with regional equities poised to cap one of their strongest quarters in years as an artificial intelligence-driven rally in semiconductor stocks powered gains across major markets.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced over 1% and remained on track for a quarterly gain of more than 36%, while South Korea’s KOSPI rose 1% and was still set for an almost 65% jump during the quarter after hitting a series of record highs. 

The MSCI Asia ex Japan Net USD climbed about 21% over the past three months, led by South Korea, now the world’s best-performing major equity market this year. 

But some Asian markets lagged in the quarter. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell over 1% on Tuesday and was set to lose 7.5% in the quarter.  

Australia’s ASX 200 was little changed after minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June meeting reaffirmed that policymakers remained cautious on inflation and were prepared to hike interest rates further after an aggressive hiking cycle this year. 

Japan’s TOPIX index rose 0.7% after data showed industrial production rose less than expected in May while unemployment remained steady, 

Indonesia’s Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index fell about 2.7%, extending its underperformance as foreign investors continued to pull money from the market amid lingering concerns over policy credibility, market transparency and a potential MSCI downgrade, leaving the benchmark the world’s worst-performing major equity index this year.

Philippine trade and inflation data, with oil price volatility remaining a key consideration for the import-dependent economy, while Thailand’s industrial production figures pointed to continued softness in manufacturing activity.

Thailand’s SET Index was little changed and the Philippines’ PSEi Composite lost 0.9%. 

Attention later in the day will turn to European inflation data, U.S. consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings, before Thursday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Markets will also monitor remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday, developments in U.S.-Iran talks, and India’s trade balance and RBI credit review for fresh cues heading into the third quarter.

[Zoltan D @Zoltan__D]

Good Morning to everyone in the UTC+1 time zone (Central European Summer Time) from Spitsbergen to Cape Town! On this day, the following important events took place in recent centuries.

2/1
296 – Pope Marcellinus begins his papacy.
763 – The Byzantine army of emperor Constantine V defeats the Bulgarian forces in the Battle of Anchialus.
1398 – Zhu Yunwen ascended the throne to the Ming dynasty to become the Jianwen Emperor.
1422 – Battle of Arbedo between the duke of Milan and the Swiss cantons.
1521 – Spanish forces defeat a combined French and Navarrese army at the Battle of Noáin during the Spanish conquest of Iberian Navarre.
1559 – King Henry II of France is mortally wounded in a jousting match against Gabriel, comte de Montgomery.
1598 – The Spanish-held Castillo San Felipe del Morro in San Juan, Puerto Rico having been besieged for fifteen days, surrenders to an English force under Sir George Clifford, Earl of Cumberland.
1632 – The University of Tartu is founded.
1643 – Royalists loyal to King Charles I led by the Earl of Newcastle defeat Parliamentarian troops commanded by Lord Fairfax in the battle of Adwalton Moor, allowing them to capture Bradford and Leeds.
1651 – The Deluge: Khmelnytsky Uprising: The Battle of Berestechko ends with a Polish victory.
1688 – The Immortal Seven issue the Invitation to William, which would culminate in the Glorious Revolution.
1691 – A Williamite army under Godert de Ginkell takes the city of Athlone from the Jacobites after a short siege.
1703 – The Battle of Ekeren between a Dutch force and a French force.
1758 – Seven Years' War: Habsburg Austrian forces destroy a Prussian reinforcement and supply convoy in the Battle of Domstadtl, helping to expel Prussian King Frederick the Great from Moravia.
1794 – Northwest Indian War: Native American forces under Blue Jacket attack Fort Recovery.
1805 – Under An act to divide the Indiana Territory into two separate governments, adopted by the U.S. Congress on January 11, 1805, the Michigan Territory is organized.
1859 – French acrobat Charles Blondin crosses Niagara Falls on a tightrope.
1860 – The 1860 Oxford evolution debate at the Oxford University Museum of Natural History takes place.
1864 – U.S. President Abraham Lincoln grants Yosemite Valley to California for "public use, resort and recreation".
1876 – Serbia declares war on the Ottoman Empire, leading to the Serbian Wars for Independence.
1882 – Charles J. Guiteau is hanged in Washington, D.C. for the assassination of U.S. President James Garfield.
1886 – The first transcontinental train trip across Canada departs from Montreal, Quebec. It arrives in Port Moody, British Columbia on July 4.
1892 – The Homestead Strike begins near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
1900 – A savage fire wrecked three steamships docked at a pier in Hoboken, New Jersey. Over 200 crew members and passengers are killed, and hundreds injured.
1905 – Albert Einstein sends the article On the Electrodynamics of Moving Bodies, in which he introduces special relativity, for publication in Annalen der Physik.
1906 – The United States Congress passes the Meat Inspection Act and Pure Food and Drug Act.
1908 – The Tunguska Event, the largest impact event on Earth in human recorded history, resulting in a massive explosion over Eastern Siberia.
1912 – The Regina Cyclone, Canada's deadliest tornado event, kills 28 people in Regina, Saskatchewan.
1916 – World War I: In "the day Sussex died", elements of the Royal Sussex Regiment take heavy casualties in the Battle of the Boar's Head at Richebourg-l'Avoué in France.
1921 – U.S. President Warren G. Harding appoints former President William Howard Taft as Chief Justice of the United States.
➡️https://t.co/tZgzQrbTkS

[Zoltan D @Zoltan__D]

2/2
1922 – In Washington D.C., U.S. Secretary of State Charles Evans Hughes and Dominican Ambassador Francisco J. Peynado sign the Hughes–Peynado agreement, which ends the United States occupation of the Dominican Republic.
1934 – The Night of the Long Knives, Adolf Hitler's violent purge of his political rivals in Germany, takes place.
1936 – Emperor Haile Selassie of Abyssinia appeals for aid to the League of Nations against Italy's invasion of his country.
1937 – The world's first emergency telephone number, 999, is introduced in London.
1944 – World War II: The Battle of Cherbourg ends with the fall of the strategically valuable port to American forces.
1953 – The first Chevrolet Corvette rolls off the assembly line in Flint, Michigan.
1959 – A United States Air Force F-100 Super Sabre from Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, crashes into a nearby elementary school, killing 11 students plus six residents from the local neighborhood.
1960 – Belgian Congo gains independence as Republic of the Congo (Léopoldville).
1963 – Ciaculli bombing: a car bomb, intended for Mafia boss Salvatore Greco, kills seven police officers and military personnel near Palermo.
1966 – The National Organization for Women, the United States' largest feminist organization, is founded.
1968 – Pope Paul VI issues the Credo of the People of God.
1971 – The crew of the Soviet Soyuz 11 spacecraft are killed when their air supply escapes through a faulty valve.
1972 – The first leap second is added to the UTC time system.
1973 – Concorde 001 intercepts the path of a total solar eclipse and follows the moon's shadow, experiencing the longest total eclipse observation.
1974 – The Baltimore municipal strike of 1974 begins.
1977 – The Southeast Asia Treaty Organization disbands.
1985 – Thirty-nine American hostages from the hijacked TWA Flight 847 are freed in Beirut after being held for 17 days.
1986 – The U.S. Supreme Court rules in Bowers v. Hardwick that states can outlaw homosexual acts between consenting adults.
1989 – A coup d'état in Sudan deposes the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Sadiq al-Mahdi and President Ahmed al-Mirghani.
1990 – East and West Germany merge their economies.
1993 – Malta is officially subdivided into 68 local councils by the Local Councils Act.
2007 – A Jeep Cherokee filled with propane canisters drives into the entrance of Glasgow Airport, Scotland in a failed terrorist attack. This was linked to the 2007 London car bombs that had taken place the day before.
2009 – Yemenia Flight 626, an Airbus A310-300, crashes into the Indian Ocean near Comoros, killing 152 of the 153 people on board. A 14-year-old girl named Bahia Bakari survives the crash.[28]
2013 – Nineteen firefighters die controlling a wildfire near Yarnell, Arizona.
2013 – Protests begin around Egypt against President Mohamed Morsi and the ruling Freedom and Justice Party, leading to their overthrow during the 2013 Egyptian coup d'état.
2015 – A Hercules C-130 military aircraft with 113 people on board crashes in a residential area in Medan, Indonesia, resulting in at least 116 deaths.
2019 – Donald Trump becomes the first sitting US President to visit the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea).
2020 – The Hong Kong National Security Law is passed by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress and immediately comes into effect after gazettal.
2021 – The Tiger Fire ignites near Black Canyon City, Arizona, and goes on to burn 16,278 acres (6,587 ha) of land before being fully contained on July 30.
2023 – A Tajik citizen with ISIS connections, wanted in Tajikistan for murder and kidnapping, kills two people at Chișinău International Airport in Moldova, after being denied entry to the country.

[Zoltan D @Zoltan__D]

2/2
1922 – In Washington D.C., U.S. Secretary of State Charles Evans Hughes and Dominican Ambassador Francisco J. Peynado sign the Hughes–Peynado agreement, which ends the United States occupation of the Dominican Republic.
1934 – The Night of the Long Knives, Adolf Hitler's violent purge of his political rivals in Germany, takes place.
1936 – Emperor Haile Selassie of Abyssinia appeals for aid to the League of Nations against Italy's invasion of his country.
1937 – The world's first emergency telephone number, 999, is introduced in London.
1944 – World War II: The Battle of Cherbourg ends with the fall of the strategically valuable port to American forces.
1953 – The first Chevrolet Corvette rolls off the assembly line in Flint, Michigan.
1959 – A United States Air Force F-100 Super Sabre from Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, crashes into a nearby elementary school, killing 11 students plus six residents from the local neighborhood.
1960 – Belgian Congo gains independence as Republic of the Congo (Léopoldville).
1963 – Ciaculli bombing: a car bomb, intended for Mafia boss Salvatore Greco, kills seven police officers and military personnel near Palermo.
1966 – The National Organization for Women, the United States' largest feminist organization, is founded.
1968 – Pope Paul VI issues the Credo of the People of God.
1971 – The crew of the Soviet Soyuz 11 spacecraft are killed when their air supply escapes through a faulty valve.
1972 – The first leap second is added to the UTC time system.
1973 – Concorde 001 intercepts the path of a total solar eclipse and follows the moon's shadow, experiencing the longest total eclipse observation.
1974 – The Baltimore municipal strike of 1974 begins.
1977 – The Southeast Asia Treaty Organization disbands.
1985 – Thirty-nine American hostages from the hijacked TWA Flight 847 are freed in Beirut after being held for 17 days.
1986 – The U.S. Supreme Court rules in Bowers v. Hardwick that states can outlaw homosexual acts between consenting adults.
1989 – A coup d'état in Sudan deposes the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Sadiq al-Mahdi and President Ahmed al-Mirghani.
1990 – East and West Germany merge their economies.
1993 – Malta is officially subdivided into 68 local councils by the Local Councils Act.
2007 – A Jeep Cherokee filled with propane canisters drives into the entrance of Glasgow Airport, Scotland in a failed terrorist attack. This was linked to the 2007 London car bombs that had taken place the day before.
2009 – Yemenia Flight 626, an Airbus A310-300, crashes into the Indian Ocean near Comoros, killing 152 of the 153 people on board. A 14-year-old girl named Bahia Bakari survives the crash.[28]
2013 – Nineteen firefighters die controlling a wildfire near Yarnell, Arizona.
2013 – Protests begin around Egypt against President Mohamed Morsi and the ruling Freedom and Justice Party, leading to their overthrow during the 2013 Egyptian coup d'état.
2015 – A Hercules C-130 military aircraft with 113 people on board crashes in a residential area in Medan, Indonesia, resulting in at least 116 deaths.
2019 – Donald Trump becomes the first sitting US President to visit the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea).
2020 – The Hong Kong National Security Law is passed by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress and immediately comes into effect after gazettal.
2021 – The Tiger Fire ignites near Black Canyon City, Arizona, and goes on to burn 16,278 acres (6,587 ha) of land before being fully contained on July 30.
2023 – A Tajik citizen with ISIS connections, wanted in Tajikistan for murder and kidnapping, kills two people at Chișinău International Airport in Moldova, after being denied entry to the country.

[Eva Vlaardingerbroek @EvaVlaar]

Over 400,000 signatures on the @SaveEuropeAct!

And the most inspiring part? More than 95,000 of those signers have also pledged to become a volunteer.

That’s nearly a 1-in-4 ratio. The start of an incredible grassroots movement.

Let’s get to 1 million!

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Percentage of balances 90+ days delinquent, by loan type, per WSJ:

[Bloomberg @business]

The swift reopening of the crucial Strait of Hormuz hit a bumpy patch after Iran attacked two ships, writes @helloimserene https://t.co/EBt5bqxU1Y

[Mossad Commentary @MOSSADil]

🚨 IRAN CLAIMS $6 BILLION WIN — U.S. SAYS "NOT SO FAST."

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian announced that $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets held in Qatar will be released, calling it "a great victory for the Iranian people." He said the funds would be returned to Iran as part of the ongoing understandings between Tehran and Washington.

However, U.S. officials dispute that claim, saying no frozen assets have actually been transferred. Qatar has also not publicly confirmed that any release has taken place.

The conflicting statements underscore the uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran negotiations, with Tehran presenting the asset release as a diplomatic success while Washington insists no money has yet changed hands.
@selenaryan_

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

President Donald J. Trump has posted to Truth Social stating that representatives from the U.S. and Iran will meet tomorrow in Doha, Qatar after Iran requested a meeting.

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Performance: Neural9 chart (notice Micron is on its own scale)/table updated thru Friday’s close

[Zoltan D @Zoltan__D]

@axios https://t.co/9xuJbC8GTW

[Zoltan D @Zoltan__D]

The Young Fed Rebel: When Warsh Opposed QE2, Yet Voted Yes

But Warsh wasn’t just executing decisions, he had his own convictions.

Picture this: It’s the fall of 2008, and the global financial system is in flames. Banks are collapsing one after another, markets are in panic, and the Fed is slashing interest rates to save whatever can be saved. In the middle of this chaos sits a 35-year-old governor, Kevin Warsh, one of Ben Bernanke’s closest confidants.

While most were focused on immediately extinguishing the fire, Warsh was already worried about something else: inflation. He didn’t want loose monetary policy to come back and bite them later.

Then came 2011. The Fed rolled out the massive $600 billion QE2 program, a huge round of Treasury purchases designed to push down long-term rates even further. Warsh openly opposed it. He thought it was ineffective and risky.

Yet he voted yes anyway.

At Ben Bernanke’s personal request. Because in the heat of the crisis, team unity mattered more than individual doubts. But the disagreement lingered. In March 2011, Warsh resigned from the Fed.

Warsh’s story isn’t just that of a loyal executor. It’s the story of a young governor trying to balance saving the moment with protecting the future in one of history’s greatest economic storms. A Wall Street insider who still thought with his own sense of responsibility.

And who ultimately chose to walk away rather than keep executing against his better judgment.

That’s the kind of character who still shapes how we think about the Fed today.

[MFA Russia 🇷🇺 @mfa_russia]

⚡️ Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service:

Ukraine is deliberately enabling the growing transit of drugs from Latin America to Europe.

Zelensky’s corrupt regime needs new revenue streams as its Western sponsors struggle to satisfy its insatiable demands.

https://t.co/dxMVaUi1bi

[Zoltan D @Zoltan__D]

🇭🇺 What do you need for Hungarian citizenship?

Acquiring Hungarian citizenship (naturalization) comes with strict conditions, it's not an automatic right, but an individual state decision. The goal is to measure real integration, attachment, and security.

Main requirements (according to Act LV of 1993):

Standard naturalization (after 8 years of continuous LEGAL residence in Hungary):
- Clean criminal record + no ongoing criminal proceedings
- Secure livelihood and housing in Hungary
- Does not endanger public or national security (background checks)
- Pass a constitutional knowledge exam in Hungarian + prove Hungarian language skills (or legal exemption: e.g., over 65, Hungarian-language education, serious health reasons)

Simplified / preferential naturalization (e.g., Hungarian spouse, ancestry/descent, refugee, born in Hungary, etc.):
- Shorter residence period (often 3–5 years)
- Proof of Hungarian language knowledge still required in most cases (conversation check by consul/official — conversational level)
- Fulfillment of family/attachment conditions

Exemptions exist (e.g., certain minors, incapacitated persons), and rarely presidential waiver for important Hungarian interests.

Why is the system so strict?
- It measures how strong the bond is between the applicant and the Hungarian state/society, and how well the person has integrated.
- It preserves the moral weight of citizenship and strengthens attachment to Hungary.
- Security reasons (protection of public and national security).
- It promotes linguistic, cultural, and legal integration — so someone is Hungarian not just "on paper."

Dual citizenship is generally allowed. The simplified procedure (e.g., via ancestry) is faster, but language knowledge is still a basic expectation for communication.

Source: Official government sites and the current law. For precise info, always consult official authorities (consulate, government office) — individual cases may vary!

#HungarianCitizenship #Naturalization #Integration

[Wall Street Apes @WallStreetApes]

🚨 George Soros is behind the Memphis DA who stopped prosecuting crime making Memphis ‘The nations most violent and dangerous city in 2023’

“George Soros spent $600,000 to back a DA candidate from Yale Law School who's come in and basically stopped prosecuting crime”

And he’s doing this all over the country.

In 2023, I think Memphis had the highest homicide rate per capita of any city in the United States of America, so deeply troubling”

Here’s where the Democrat lies and propaganda comes in

DA Steve Mulroy strongly denies being funded by George Soros, he publicly says he rejects the “Soros DA” label

But don’t be fooled, all Democrats do is lie

George Soros just sent the money through separate entities to fund him to hide the support. Soros-linked entities and PACs like ‘People for Fairness and Justice’ provided substantial support

Not only this, A pro-police group called ‘Law Enforcement Legal Defense Fund’ tracked him as one of dozens of ‘George Soros prosecutors.’