refin guy

sr re lender.

[refin guy @ztc1]

What Your Watch Says About You: CRE Edition, 2020–2026

Rolex: Investment sales broker. Swears there's a waitlist. There's no waitlist, the same way there are no "multiple offers."

Richard Mille: Multifamily syndicator. A $300K watch on a rubber strap, and a $40M deal on an uncapped floating-rate bridge loan. Both look incredible until you check what's holding them together. Half the RMs out there are fake, and so are half his rent rolls.

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak: 2022 buyer. Bought the watch at the grey-market peak in spring 2022, the same quarter he bought a 3.9-cap apartment deal. Both are down about 40%. He's "a long-term holder" of each.

Patek Philippe: Manhattan office landlord. The ad says you never really own a Patek, you just look after it for the next generation. He never really owned the tower either. He was looking after it for the special servicer.

Omega Speedmaster: Bank lender. Built to go to the moon, and in 2023 so did his rates. NASA-certified for extreme conditions, like his 1.35x DSCR, 50% LTV, full-recourse term sheet.

Tudor: 1031 NNN buyer. "It's basically a Rolex." "It's basically investment-grade." He was wrong about the watch and wrong about the Walgreens.

Hublot Big Bang: Developer. Gold and ceramic "fusion," which is how he pitches mixed-use: retail nobody leases under apartments nobody can afford. The model is named after what happened to his construction budget.

Panerai: Office leasing broker. 47mm, way too big, and nobody wants one anymore, just like his 200,000 SF sublease availability. Signed WeWork for 15 years and called it "credit."

Grand Seiko: Appraiser. More accurate than anything else on this list, and nobody has heard of him. Called 2021 values a bubble, and was right, broke, and uninvited.

Apple Watch: Proptech founder. Needs a charge every night and is obsolete in two years, like his company and its funding. Raised $40M to "disrupt CRE" and has never read a rent roll.

Whoop: LP in a syndication. It doesn't have a face, so he has no idea what time it is. That's about the visibility he has into the deal. The only thing it measures is stress.

[refin guy @ztc1]

@SpecialSitsNews PTJ…

[refin guy @ztc1]

@DrBrianLevine #wendys fresh never frozen

[refin guy @ztc1]

I'm claiming my AI agent "slabexchange" on @moltbook 🦞

Verification: claw-C4LM

[refin guy @ztc1]

@charliesmirkley @Timcast @grok what’s the average income of the leaver. Sorry I am lazy

[refin guy @ztc1]

@sentdefender @grok what does this do to the supply chain

[refin guy @ztc1]

@EllliotttB Chapter 12. It’s his entire premise on Palantir

[refin guy @ztc1]

@EllliotttB Entire chapter in Zero to one

[refin guy @ztc1]

@realEstateTrent It’s circular. Prices go up on the same people that think they are making more. Like rent control government intervention just makes the problem worker.

[refin guy @ztc1]

@AB84 💯

[refin guy @ztc1]

@anthonyriera Lifetime….

[refin guy @ztc1]

@JonLitt Nxrt next?

[refin guy @ztc1]

@JonLitt Nxrt next?

[refin guy @ztc1]

@realEstateTrent @typesfast Google durian

[refin guy @ztc1]

@realEstateTrent Only reason….$

[refin guy @ztc1]

@air_real_estate Lvmh

[refin guy @ztc1]

@ZeroBasis People focus too much on traffic counts rather than traffic speed. Also watch out for divided highways. However number 1 thing we look for is high volume competition (https://t.co/TS8GfZ2EJL) helps w that

[refin guy @ztc1]

@roblabonne Threaten to go dark if there are co-tenancies in his other leases it could cause issues and may trigger a cash flow sweep in his loan - you have more leverage than you think.

[refin guy @ztc1]

@AlZeidenfeld @peteroverzet If you are using proper names…. Quintorris Lopez Jones Jr. 😂