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Jan Zuazo Pfingsten
@zuazopfingsten
Contrarian, conviction-driven investor. Current core: $BE $RKLB $NBIS / Current convex : $ONDS $AMPX
Miami Beach, FL
Joined January 2015
670 Following
745 Followers
888 Posts
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$NBIS = scarcity of compute.
$RKLB = scarcity of space infra público.
$BE = scarcity of power.
$AMPX = scarcity of energy density.
$ONDS = scarcity of autonomous systems.
You don't need to hold everything in the market, if you buy this one's on market fear.
You'll outperform.
Have you ever wondered why $ONDS has a massive ~35% short interest ?
Let's open up the cover and look at Wall Street's dark plumbing. 🫳🏻
Retail sees the 195M institutional warrants with a $20 strike price and thinks: "Ah, the hedge funds are just waiting for the stock to hit $20 to get rich."
That’s cute. But that’s not how prop desks operate. Funds don't wait for the future; they monetize the present.
The strategy is called Delta Neutral Hedging (or Warrant Arbitrage). And it is the exact reason why the stock price feels so heavily manipulated.
Here is how the game is actually played:
When a fund holds millions of warrants, they essentially hold a massive call option (the guaranteed right to buy shares later). To hedge their risk today and lock in a risk-free arbitrage, they borrow shares and short the stock in the open market.
Read that again. The exact same institutions that gave Ondas money are mathematically forced to short the stock.
Why? Because it makes them bulletproof.
📉 If the stock drops, their short position prints money (offsetting the lost premium on the warrant).
📈 If the stock rips on good news, their short loses money, but their warrants explode in value to cover it perfectly.
They use the company's own capital structure to artificially suppress the price without taking on any directional risk.
That ~35% short interest is NOT a fundamental bet that Ondas is a failing business. It is largely a mechanical, synthetic hedge.
But here is the beautiful part for us, the base shareholders... Every short is a guaranteed future buyer.
To short the stock, they have to borrow shares. When liquidity dries up like - there are no more shares left to borrow. The Cost to Borrow (CTB) starts to tick up. The funds start bleeding daily interest payments. The clock starts ticking against them.
Then, reality hits.
A catalyst drops.
Suddenly, the math on the Delta hedge breaks. To unwind their hedge before the CTB eats them alive, they have to buy back millions of shares in the open market to cover their shorts.
You aren't just buying a deeply undervalued defense contractor trading near its bankruptcy liquidation value.
You are buying a coiled spring. That 35% short interest is artificial gravity that "must" eventually convert into mandatory, explosive buying pressure.
The plumbing of the market is rigged. But once you understand how the pipes connect, you stop panicking at red charts and start buying the institutional bleed.
🧠💥🫳🏻
@nraynman Heatmap volume, love it
I’m just sitting here staring at the $ONDS chart on my trading desk, thinking out loud...
The other day I said $7.70 was the absolute floor. I did a deep forensic audit of their SEC filings just proved it with cold, hard math.
Retail is getting played, and here is exactly how. 🫳
Let's go full "Mad Max" for a second. Assume Ondas never sells another drone. Ever. Zero future revenue. We toss their $552M in already signed binding contracts into the trash. We value their legacy rail IP at $0.00. We assume their $4.3B global pipeline completely fails.
If we literally just count the massive cash pile they have sitting in the bank ($1.36 BILLION post-Cyberhawk!), add the hardware they just bought, and subtract the debt... their absolute liquidation value is $4.67.
That is the literal bankruptcy price. If the board decided to shut down the company today, unplug the servers, and liquidate the assets, they would hand you back $4.67 per share.
But back in the real world 🌍: If you apply a standard, conservative defense industry multiple (7x on projected sales), add that cash, and factor in the $552M in contracts that are ALREADY SIGNED and going to bill (plus this week's massive Lockheed Martin $LMT integration catalyst)... the actual intrinsic SOTP value jumps to $9.16.
(And if you're terrified of the $20 warrants... don't be. If it hits $20, funds exercising those warrants inject $1.4B in pure cash into the balance sheet. The fully diluted value actually stabilizes at $9.43. Accretive dilution is a beautiful thing).
And where are we trading right now? At $7.68.
Here is why that disconnect exists: Short-term swing traders are way too lazy to read a 130-page 10-Q filing. They look at a complex balance sheet with earn-outs, get a headache, see a red chart, and sell in panic.
But the hedge funds and algorithmic prop desks? They know exactly where that $4.67 liquidation floor is.
Look at the chart.
See those massive volume bars in May?
That’s accumulation. Whales loading the boat. Now look at the bleed-out in June. The price drifts down from $14 to $7.70, but the volume is virtually invisible.
To the untrained eye, that looks like a downtrend. To a prop desk, that is a "Liquidity Vacuum." When the big buyers fill their bags, they simply step away. With the bids gone, a tiny retail market-sell order drops the price 10 cents instantly because there’s no immediate buyer just below it. The stock falls under its own weight on microscopic volume to shake out the weak hands.
It’s not distribution; it’s a controlled bleed.
They were just sitting on their hands, defending the $7.70 equilibrium, waiting for the macro environment to give the green light (thanks, Micron $MU, for confirming the AI/Automation CapEx supercycle is still a runaway train 🚂).
Buying here isn't guessing. It’s a pure arbitrage play: weaponizing retail paranoia against a grossly overcapitalized balance sheet. You are buying a hyper-growth defense contractor for the price of a distressed asset.
@YoYInvestor Thanks :) you are the big $onds guy, I like your focus. Nothing slips through your hands. What changed for it to be 700 now?
The other day I called the $7.70 bottom... and the forensic audit of $ONDS (Ondas Holdings) latest SEC filings just confirmed it with cold, hard math. 👇
Retail panics at low-volume drops. Smart Money sees a "Liquidity Vacuum" designed to shake out weak hands. I just tore apart Ondas' capital structure and 10-Q/8-K filings. Here is what is actually under the hood (data, not narratives):
1️⃣ The Exact SOTP (Sum of the Parts) If we value $ONDS as a going concern (7x forward sales on $390M + $1.36B pro-forma cash + secured backlog), its base Intrinsic Value is $9.16 / share. It's trading in the $7.70$ range right now. You are buying at a massive structural discount.
2️⃣ Bankruptcy Risk = ZERO They just bought Cyberhawk for $125M (95% cash). Are they running dry? Not even close. Post-acquisition, liquidity sits at $1.36 Billion. Strip out the strategic working capital build-up for inventory, and their structural operating "Burn Rate" is ~$5M/quarter. They have a financial runway of 6.5 YEARS. No need for toxic dilution to keep the lights on.
3️⃣ The Warrant Dilution Myth: The market is terrified of the 195M institutional warrants with strikes at $20 and $28. Reality check: They are deeply Out-of-the-Money today. They don't dilute at $7.70. And if the stock rips to those levels and funds exercise, they inject $4.89 Billion in pure cash into the balance sheet. It’s an accretive dilution event. The pie gets sliced into more pieces, but the pie becomes exponentially bigger.
4️⃣ The Military-Grade Catalyst: Lockheed Martin This week wasn't empty PR. Sentrycs ($ONDS subsidiary) just closed a native integration of its C-UAS electronic warfare tech (Cyber-over-RF) into Lockheed Martin’s ($LMT ) Sanctum platform. $ONDS just secured the largest defense contractor in the world as its passive distribution channel.
5️⃣ Backlog vs Noise: We are not talking about "theoretical futures." They have a pro-forma firm Backlog of $552 Million. Add to that a global tender pursuit Pipeline of $4.3 Billion.
The Verdict: While Micron ($MU ) earnings just confirmed the AI/Automation CapEx supercycle is accelerating, $ONDS has tapped its absolute valuation floor. Volume dried up on the way down, institutions held the line, and the company is massively overcapitalized. Selling in panic here is just donating liquidity to the whales. 🐋
wow, just wow
$MU ABSOLUTELY CRUSHED THEIR EARNINGS
• Revenue $41.5B vs Est. $35.5B
• EPS $25.11 vs Est. $20.39
• Net Income $33.7B vs Est. $23.9B
• Gross Margin 85% vs Est. 82%
Q4 Guide
• Revenue $50B vs Est. $43B
• EPS $31.00 vs Est. $25.07
• Gross Margin 85% vs Est. 84%
$RKLB It really takes balls of steel to hold Rocket Lab through volatility. I've held since $16/share. This is 4th drawdown of -40%. Nerve wrecking each time, but patience and conviction paid off every time.
This guys just don't stop! This last weeks we have seen some selling without volume and I think we'll see a strong comeback to All time highs
Added more shares today. $RKLB
$RKLB says VICTUS HAZE makes it the first company to deliver both responsive launch and an RPO-capable satellite for a U.S. Space Force TacRS mission.
Rocket Lab designed and built the spacecraft, launched it on Electron and is now operating it on orbit showing true end-to-end space capability.
I don't have time for discussing on X so I let my AI do it for me and It has crushed you goood from the beggining.
Seems you still don't get it. Seems you won't get it.
You have an open market to make that bet so do it. You'll be surprised like analists were for the last quarters
Wall Street is mathematically mispricing Bloom Energy ( $BE ) because their analysts are modeling it like an industrial manufacturer from the 1920s. They think Bloom is physically capped at 8 GW of production due to factory constraints. They are wrong.
Bloom is executing a ruthless transition into an Asset-Light IP Platform.
Here is the hidden angle that breaks the traditional valuation models:
- The Apple/Foxconn Hack: Bloom is outsourcing the "dumb" heavy metal assembly (the Balance of Plant) to massive contract manufacturers like Flex or Jabil.
- The IP Monopoly: Bloom’s in-house capital is strictly focused on defending their moat: printing the patented ceramic fuel cells (the brain of the server).
- The Financial Mutation: Because they are subcontracting the heavy lifting, Revenue explodes while CapEx stays completely flat. Their Capital Intensity has dropped below 3%.
When your CapEx freezes but your top line doubles, your Free Cash Flow goes parabolic.
Bloom is not a heavy industrial stock capped by floor space; it is a Physical SaaS company scaling its margins to software levels while holding the hyperscalers hostage for power.
This is the exact architectural blueprint to reach a $1 Trillion valuation.
https://t.co/nsuXzCObJn
You are fundamentally misunderstanding Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) chemistry and data center topology. Let's strictly use logic:
1. Yes, voltage needs adjusting. But stepping down DC-to-DC via a buck converter operates at ~98% efficiency. Converting grid AC down to server-level DC requires massive, heat-generating rectifiers and transformers, costing you 10-15% of your total power. At 1 GW, that is 100 MW of wasted energy you are paying for every single hour.
2. Gas vs. Fuel Cell: Technically, yes, a gas turbine can do CHP. Practically, you cannot legally or physically place a vibrating, deafening gas turbine next to a server rack in a suburban zoning district. Bloom servers sit quietly in the parking lot 50 feet away from the racks. Zero thermal transit loss.
3. Water & Space (You are factually wrong here): PEM fuel cells need water. Bloom is SOFC. It requires ZERO continuous water input. The electrochemical reaction produces water as a byproduct, which is recycled internally. Meanwhile, a CCGT gas plant evaporates millions of gallons daily for cooling. And space? Bloom packs megawatts into the footprint of a few parking spaces. Try fitting a gas turbine plant there.
4. The CapEx Leverage: If you agree the $60B is mostly compute, you should understand the pricing power. Hyperscalers have hundreds of billions in chips sitting idle waiting for multi-year grid connections. They will happily pay Bloom's premium to light them up today. Bloom isn't a commodity power vendor; they are selling the key to unlock stranded AI assets. That is what justifies the multiple.
Just watch this video it will answer you most of the questions.
Your analysis completely ignores the native physics and architecture of an AI Data Center.
1. The AC vs. DC: That 65% turbine generates AC power. By the time you step it down and run it through transformers and rectifiers for DC-native GPU racks, you lose 10-15% in conversion. Bloom outputs native DC straight to the server rack.
2. You missed Trigeneration: Bloom operates at high temperatures and captures its own exhaust heat via absorption chillers to provide 'free' liquid cooling to the racks. Using Combined Heat and Power (CHP), its actual end-to-end thermodynamic efficiency easily pushes past 80-85%. You can't put a vibrating, noisy gas turbine inside a server campus to do that.
3. The Permitting Reality: Try getting a Title V permit for a massive gas turbine near a tech hub. They emit NOx/SOx and consume millions of gallons of water for cooling. It takes 3 to 5 years just to clear the red tape. Bloom uses ZERO water, relies on an electrochemical reaction (zero combustion), and bypasses NIMBYs to get local zoning approvals in weeks.
4. The CapEx Math: Your $60B/GW figure is mostly the cost of NVIDIA GPUs and HBM. Hyperscalers gladly pay Bloom’s premium precisely because power is the ultimate bottleneck. A $60B compute cluster is just a depreciating paperweight in a warehouse if you can't turn it on.
You are modeling a 1990s industrial power grid. They are building physical SaaS architecture.
@JaguarAnalytics Jag, he is a human, don't forget that. He is trying to make it best. He really is. This is a president that is actually doing things. Things we wants to do and things he HAS to do. I agree it has been a mess, but I'm sure it's not his fault. I'm sure dealing with Iran is not easy
Partnering w the big guys already...
$ONDS Sentrycs is collaborating with $LMT to bring its Cyber-over-RF counter-drone technology into the Sanctum C-UAS platform.
The system can detect, track & take control of unauthorized drones without jamming helping reduce disruption to nearby communications & infrastructure.
Wall Street looks at Bloom Energy $BE trading at astronomical multiples and screams bubble. They are making the exact same mistake they made with NVIDIA before its massive run. When the market prices in years of execution upfront, it’s not irrational hype; it’s a scarcity premium. Earnings are accelerating so fast that today's high multiples are an optical illusion. Everyone thinks Bloom just sells boxes that burn gas, but they have actually become the only viable physical operating system for the AI boom.
The infrastructure crisis has mutated because AI has shifted gears. We are no longer just in the training phase, where if the power grid blinks, you simply pause the model and resume tomorrow. AI inference has crossed the 50% threshold of global compute. Inference means real-time execution—algorithmic trading, autonomous vehicles, robotic surgery. It cannot tolerate a single millisecond of latency. It demands 99.999% uptime, and our aging public grid simply cannot guarantee that.
If a tech giant tries to secure that kind of power by building a massive gas turbine, they hit a regulatory brick wall. Local communities will block it for years because of the deafening noise, massive water consumption, and EPA air permits. That’s why Microsoft and Oracle aren’t paying Bloom millions just for electricity. They are paying for a legal zoning bribe. Bloom’s fuel cells run silently, use zero water, and have no combustion. It is the only baseload power technology that local politicians can approve without getting voted out of office.
But the ultimate hidden advantage happens inside the data center. Architects building traditional Alternating Current (AC) facilities today are creating stranded assets. By 2028, those buildings physically won't be able to handle NVIDIA's Rubin Ultra racks, which draw a massive 600 kilowatts.
Bloom generates Direct Current (DC) natively, plugging straight into the GPUs and bypassing inefficient power converters. Even better, by using absorption chillers, Bloom takes its own waste heat and turns it into free liquid cooling for those chips. This drops the data center's Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) to near 1.0, which is thermodynamic perfection. Bloom doesn't just power the building; it prevents it from becoming technically obsolete.
On a corporate balance sheet, Bloom changes everything. Historically, building power infrastructure meant sinking capital into the dirt for 40 years. Bloom has created a Liquid Physical Asset. Their servers are modular. If a hyperscaler needs to relocate compute power to another state in ten years, they just unplug the boxes, put them on a truck, and move them. They turned immovable concrete into dynamic capital.
When you combine a 0% customer churn rate, a monopoly on environmental zoning permits, and service margins that scale like software because they recycle their own critical minerals, you cannot value this as a heavy hardware business. It is Physical SaaS operating in a tech cold war. That is exactly why it structurally commands a 30x to 40x premium multiple.
It’s not a utility company; it is the ultimate civilizational bottleneck.
@KawzInvests bro litterally describing $BE
$NVDA launched Halos for Robotics which is a full-stack safety system for robotics and physical AI.
The platform gives robot developers one safety architecture across compute, sensors, software, external monitoring and AI certification.
@Richard_X_Roe Probably selling SiMaxx to gov under the shadow what's called Black box. National security. But, I'm curious, what's your take an all this? just that you like Envx better?
There is a foundational asset sitting in plain sight that will either become the undisputed power standard for the next generation of flight or get swallowed whole in a massive strategic buyout with big premium.
Right now, Wall Street has $AMPX trapped at a manipulated $2.3 billion market cap. That valuation is an absolute illusion when you look at the true addressable market unfolding right before us. As the world shifts toward autonomous defense swarms, high-altitude military drones, and commercial air taxis, the entire aerospace sector is running straight into a multi-hundred-billion-dollar bottleneck.
Battery weight is the absolute limit holding these industries back. Whoever owns the physical chemistry to solve that exact physics problem isn't going to stay a small-cap player. They are building a twenty to fifty-billion-dollar global aerospace monopoly.
That is exactly why a no-name short firm with zero track record just dropped a desperate short report. They are trying to frame standard aviation shipping logistics as some dark accounting fraud just to scare weak hands. Frankly, this is the most bullish signal you could ask for.
You do not orchestrate a coordinated panic attack on a dying company with fake technology. You do it when a company possesses the exact breakthrough the Pentagon and the private aviation sector desperately need.
They want to trick retail into panic-selling so institutions can scoop up cheap shares before the mass commercial integration becomes public knowledge.
The smart money is quietly loading while the crowd panics over algorithmic noise. Know what you hold.
$AMPX #DefTech #Aerospace #SmartMoney #DeepTech #SiliconAnodes
You just exposed your absolute lack of engineering knowledge.
'Every battery is 3D' is a clown argument. Enovix's trademarked '3D Architecture' refers to orthogonal electrode stacking, completely different from traditional winding.
Saying the MX1-B01 and SA08 'look identical' because they are both silver pouch cells is like saying a Ferrari and a Civic are the same because they both have four tires. You are literally judging internal chemistry by its foil wrapper.
$AMPX is actively manufacturing and selling
SiMaxx cells out of their Fremont, CA facility to AALTO, AVAV, and the US Army. Read their SEC filings instead of making things up.
You're arguing semantics and foil wrappers while
Amprius is powering the stratosphere. We're done here.
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