@JoshR104@saylor You literally did sign up for that haha. If BTC doesn't beat the hurdle rate where do you think that risk goes? You pay for STRC for the BTC upside above 13%. Very basic shit
The way Iโm resolving it: the floor looks like the slow adoption variable โ the revealed base of people who will not sell. The departures look like a temporary excited state that compounds and then dies. The regression then looks less like the โtrueโ value and more like the time-average of those multi-year excursions.
That would explain why the ceiling compresses faster than the floor rises, why the median is drifting toward ~P40, and why moves off the floor feel like bounces rather than mean-reversion to the current trend line. But as mentioned these are just feelings.
I like the P10 framing.