zyzzy

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

@KimLawrenc2520 @ConorCoutts You just don’t know what you are talking about

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

@1776NowPlease @ConorCoutts They did count but the result was statistically settled after one hour given vote breakdown.

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

@TomPolhaus @ConorCoutts Which uses statistical models

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

@Jokertkou @ConorCoutts They would probably be similar to the fake votes of the previous election. Perhaps you can model some increase based on fake votes trends.

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

@TooBadSoooSad I was implying that, as almost always happens, early votes lean right. Regardless, when they call the election early, it’s exactly because they know which areas and demographics have had votes counted and can mathematically predict the winner with near 100% certainty.

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

It’s simple only after votes have been partially counted and you have a representative sample. This is exactly why races are called in a counterintuitive way sometimes, and probably why Polymarket was projecting Raman overtaking Spencer Pratt well before the common people would expect it.

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

Historical and demographic data can tell you a lot. With a good statistical model, you can project the results almost infallibly even with a relatively small sample size if it is representative of the overall population. They don’t do it as openly in the US, but in many countries, with 10% of votes counted, they can already project the final results with a 2-3% margin of error.

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

The one that knows which candidates are stronger in the areas and demographics with more ballots left to count. If Becerra polled 0% with people who vote mostly in person or early mail (boomers), or in areas where all votes have already been counted, and 100% with people who vote late or in areas not yet finished counting, the race could be called even if Becerra was not currently on top.

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

@Obey_the_Beagle @Optyu974254 @SteveKrak In person+early mail= boomers/retired = Bass. Late mail=young or busy working=Raman

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

@lalovestrump @yashar @nithyavraman @spencerpratt @MayorOfLA Think about the voters of Raman vs Bass and vs Pratt. Exactly zero percent of Raman voters are retired.

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

@Josh79053091 @ConorCoutts Sure if ballot harvesting is baked in the model.

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

@megynkelly This seems hard to believe, but Polymarket seemed to know. Perhaps in-person votes or early ballots were much lower from areas where Raman was stronger.

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

@crimmins_j83893 @ConorCoutts Have you ever heard of statistical modeling? Historical trends?

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

@allie__voss But you are the only one suggesting to kill disabled children. It's illegal everywhere perhaps except in Sparta thousands of years ago.

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

@BillyLongfart @POTFES @grok is the claim about wanted to be the 51st state true?

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

@allie__voss Correct, because almost no one believes that children with Down syndrome should be painlessly killed after birth.

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

@MattWalshBlog I think it’s more evil to say that this is evil.

[zyzzy @zyzzy1985]

@AlanJ_Robinson @HettrickMichael Correct. Not only in Canada but all over the world.