Michael Chen

专注美股｜公司基本面｜宏观经济

跟踪财报、行业变化与市场趋势，用数据理解市场。

记录研究过程，分享独立观点。

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

Here's a simple trick: don't buy everything at once. If you have $1,000 to invest, start with just $200 or $300. If the stock drops further, you still have money to buy at a lower price. If it goes up, you're already in. It's not about buying at the perfect price, it's about not putting all your money at risk at once. And if anything I said is confusing, just ask!

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

$NVDA 跌到168美元附近，说实话，我又有点想加仓了。
英伟达我一直拿着。之前200多美元的时候总嫌贵，现在真跌下来了，反而有点犹豫。
昨天看到165.89美元，几次想下单，最后还是忍住了。主要是成交量突然放大到3.28亿股左右，我不太想在这种时候急着接。
我把接下来想买的位置标在图上了。165–168美元如果能稳住，我准备先买计划仓位的三分之一。后面如果能重新站上175美元，再考虑加一点。要是165美元守不住，那就先等等160美元附近的表现。
其实我对NVDA的长期看法没什么变化，只是现在不想一次把钱全投进去。
以前总怕错过，后来发现，留点现金在手里，心态真的会好很多。
你们这两天有加仓NVDA吗？还是跟我一样，想买又有点犹豫？
我会继续分享自己的美股交易思路，感兴趣可以关注我。平时想交流行情和持仓，也可以在 WhatsApp 找我：https://t.co/w2VP4xD2pu

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

@qingmiemiemie 哈哈，真的，跌的时候怕它继续跌，涨回来又怕错过,以前我也总想买在最低点，现在觉得没必要那么折腾。机会以后还会有，手里留点钱，反而更有底气。

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

@ThinkFreeform 确实，牛市最容易让人误以为风险已经消失了。尤其现在AI产业链联系这么紧密，一旦某个环节的订单或资金出了问题，影响可能会从芯片、数据中心一路传导到整个科技板块。我现在反而更关注现金流和杠杆水平，股价涨得越顺，越不能忽略这些细节。

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

If NVDA can hold above $180, I'll be watching $186.64 as the next key level. But a move from $165.89 to $186.64 would already represent a gain of roughly 12.5%, which is a pretty significant short-term rally.
I'm still holding my NVDA shares, but I'm not in a hurry to chase at these levels. With earnings and the upcoming hearing still ahead, any major headline could trigger a sharp gap move. Rather than guessing how high this rebound can go, I'd rather see whether NVDA can break above $180 and then successfully hold that level on a pullback.

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

Yesterday, NVDA dropped as low as $165.89, and today it's up another 6% in premarket trading. That's a pretty impressive rebound. I spent quite a while debating whether to buy around $165 yesterday, so I'm kicking myself a little for not pulling the trigger.
But a 6% premarket gain is very different from a 6% gain at the close. I'm still holding my position and will be watching whether $175 can hold today and whether selling pressure shows up around $180.
Missing the dip is frustrating, but there's no reason to throw my original plan out the window just because of one strong premarket move.

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

That's a pretty aggressive position. Based on the disclosed notional amounts, the combined exposure to NVDA and SNDK is $36.9 million, with 5x leverage on one and 2x on the other. It clearly looks like a bet on a rebound in AI chips and memory stocks.
But what I'd really like to know is whether these positions are part of a larger hedged strategy. The size of the long positions alone doesn't tell us the actual risk exposure.
I'm still holding NVDA, but I'm not going to add just because a big player is using leverage. Especially with 5x leverage, even a relatively small move in the wrong direction can create significant pressure.

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

165.9美元附近确实值得关注，RSI跌到23.95也说明短线卖压很重，但超卖不代表马上反转。我手里的NVDA还在，更倾向于先看175美元能不能站稳，再决定是否加仓。
另外这笔期权的账得算清楚：180美元行权价加3.04美元权利金，盈亏平衡点是183.04美元。如果到期涨到194.9美元，净赚11.86美元，收益率约390%。数字挺诱人，但11月16日就到期，留给行情兑现的时间太短了。方向看对却涨得不够快，权利金照样可能归零。

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

NVDA closed at $168.89 yesterday and is back up to $176.62 in premarket trading today, a 4.58% rebound that has nearly recovered yesterday's 5.47% drop.
I'm paying close attention to the $175 level. It was a support area that NVDA lost during the decline, so getting back above it and holding is important. That said, premarket volume and liquidity are very different from regular trading hours, so price moves can be exaggerated.
I'll be watching the first 30 minutes after the open, especially trading volume and whether buyers step in if the stock pulls back toward $175. If it holds, the next level I'll be watching is around $180, where some selling pressure could emerge.
I missed the chance to add around $165 yesterday, but there's no reason to change my plan just to chase today's rebound.

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

Cutting the price target from $500 to $200 is a brutal 60% reduction. But what concerns me more is Baird's view that cloud providers' AI spending growth could slow to below 40% in 2027, with 10%–30% of channel orders potentially at risk of being cut. If those numbers actually play out, they could have a meaningful impact on NVDA's valuation.
That said, NVIDIA previously projected roughly 70% revenue growth for the next fiscal year, so I think it's too early to conclude that AI demand has peaked. I'm holding my NVDA position for now. Going forward, I'll be watching closely to see whether actual orders continue to translate into revenue.

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

Yesterday I was still debating whether to add more shares around $165, and today NVDA has already bounced back. This rebound was definitely stronger than I expected. I'm still holding my position, so it's great to see the recovery, though I do wish I'd added more yesterday. That said, I don't want to chase it at these levels. I'll wait and see if NVDA can hold onto these gains through the close.

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

A $500 to $200 price-target cut is a massive change in sentiment, but I wouldn't take one analyst downgrade as proof that NVIDIA's growth story is broken. The bigger issue is whether AI infrastructure spending can continue at its current pace and translate into sustainable earnings. NVDA is also facing uncertainty around leadership, export restrictions, and investor confidence. With earnings approaching on November 17, I think revenue guidance, data center growth, and gross margins will matter far more than one analyst's price target

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

@StockSavvyShay 盘前涨5%确实让人松了口气，毕竟昨天跌得太狠了。我手里的NVDA还没动，不过现在还不急着判断反弹开始了。今天更想看开盘后能不能守住175美元，尤其是前一小时的走势。要是涨幅能留住，这次反弹才更有说服力。

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

@BullTheoryio 这波盘前反弹确实挺猛的，也说明AI芯片的需求并没有因为股价下跌就突然消失。我手里的NVDA还在，看到涨回来当然高兴。不过昨天跌得那么狠，今天又拉这么快，我反而想看看开盘后能不能稳住。长期看好是一回事，加仓时机又是另一回事。

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

@yifaninvest 我还在持有NVDA，但这件事让我更关注它的管理层结构。CUDA和客户订单不会因为换个CEO就消失，可下一代芯片路线、产能分配、跟大客户的谈判，谁能接得住？当然，调查传闻和已经证实的事实得分开看。我暂时不会因为消息就卖，但接班机制如果始终不透明，估值确实应该考虑这部分风险。

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

我更倾向于有发射能力、又能产生稳定现金流的公司。不过RKLB这笔80亿美元收购如果属实，我第一反应不是兴奋，而是想看钱从哪来。融资会不会稀释股东？整合后债务压力有多大？Neutron还没真正证明规模化发射能力，现在就讲完整闭环，我觉得有点早。商业航天最后拼的不只是技术，还有谁能活到现金流转正那天。

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

@laowangbj110 我觉得现在最值得观察的是美债收益率。如果后面油价继续回落，10年期美债收益率也跟着下行，那科技股的估值压力确实会小很多。但如果QQQ反弹、收益率却继续往上走，我就不会太乐观。夜盘涨不难，难的是开盘后资金愿不愿意持续买。

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

@Gaoxinggang 我觉得更像是后者。以前AI公司拿融资买算力，芯片厂负责卖货，现在连供应链都开始反过来投资客户了。短期能锁定需求，但也得小心一个问题：如果大家互相投资、互相采购，账面上的增长到底有多少来自真实终端需求？这可能比谁投了谁更值得关注。

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

@pyy_invest 我也更关注COHR，但有个问题值得盯紧：CPO订单真正放量之前，研发和扩产的钱得先花出去。2027–2028年的市场空间再大，最终也要看毛利率能不能跟着提升、自由现金流能不能兑现。下一轮光通信行情，我觉得真正拉开差距的不是谁的故事最大，而是谁先把订单变成利润。

[Michael Chen @0026HARU]

@YaoXiao46714 最容易被忽略的就是，买对了纳指也不一定赚钱。20%溢价买进去，就相当于提前透支了一大段涨幅。我宁愿暂时错过，也不愿意多花20%买同样的资产。不过溢价什么时候回归确实不好猜，真要参与，我会先看申购有没有恢复，而不是只盯纳指涨跌。