8/ Bottom line: Amazon is the clear long-term winner here — expect them to grab 15-25% of the contestable U.S. parcel/freight market over the next decade.
Between the two incumbents, FedEx is simply better positioned to fight back. UPS isn’t “failing” — it’s deliberately shrinking. The harder question is whether that shrink turns into sustainable strength… or just slower decline.
1/ 🚨 Amazon just flipped the logistics script.
On May 4 they launched Amazon Supply Chain Services (ASCS) — their full freight, fulfillment, and delivery network is now open to any business, not just Marketplace sellers.
P&G, 3M, Lands’ End, and American Eagle jumped in immediately.
Think “AWS for shipping.” They built it for themselves… now they’re selling the excess capacity. Game on. 🧵
7/ Next 10 years — my base-case read:
FedEx: Cautiously bullish. High-single-digit EPS compounding if Network 2.0 keeps delivering. Amazon will pressure margins in the back half of the decade, but FedEx’s execution edge should widen the gap.
UPS: Higher variance. They’re betting the entire company on becoming a specialist, not a generalist. Nail the healthcare/SMB pivot = smaller, higher-margin winner. Miss it = managed decline or acquisition target by ~2032-34.
Breaking: After weeks on life support, LIV Golf has lost the funding of its Saudi backers, sounding the death knell for the upstart league that split pro golf https://t.co/7bXzthz667
Meanwhile, transgender streamers are allowed to promote gender ideology, puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and medical transition directly to impressionable minors — content that critics argue causes irreversible harm, lifelong medical dependency, and skyrocketing detransition/regret rates.
This isn’t “community standards.” This is selective enforcement.
One side gets punished for telling boys to hit the gym and level up. The other gets a free pass to tell confused kids their bodies are wrong and need surgery.
If YouTube actually cared about protecting youth, the rules would apply equally. smh....
Meanwhile, transgender streamers are allowed to promote gender ideology, puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and medical transition directly to impressionable minors — content that critics argue causes irreversible harm, lifelong medical dependency, and skyrocketing detransition/regret rates.
This isn’t “community standards.” This is selective enforcement.
One side gets punished for telling boys to hit the gym and level up. The other gets a free pass to tell confused kids their bodies are wrong and need surgery.
If YouTube actually cared about protecting youth, the rules would apply equally.
🪄 Virginia redistricting referendum = peak witchcraft tonight.
Dem-controlled legislature wants to bypass the independent commission they created in 2020 to redraw maps for a potential 10-1 blue House delegation 'to restore fairness.'
Polymarket had Yes at ~99%... voters deciding if the spell works.
Live: https://t.co/LaZxQT9Bjs #VAPolitics #RedistrictingWitchcraft