Can Avici really scale into a DeFi Bank?
Just finished a protocol deepdive on @AviciMoney for @blocmates (link to the full analysis at the end).
Most crypto cards are marketing tools on TradFi rails. Is $avici any different?
Avici differentiates itself with a recurring revenue engine that cements its survival in this bear market, a roadmap that does not lack ambition, exemplary governance, and a valuation that makes it worth taking a look at.
Using a 7x fintech peer group derived revenue multiple and 350% expected spend growth over the next 12 months, Avici trades at a revenue yield of ~20%. That’s an attractive premium vs benchmark yields derived from staking ETH or SOL. Is it an adequate compensation for the risk?
The sensitivity is high, and depends on sustained spend volume growth and roadmap execution.
Let’s dive into the details 🧵
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Market Outlook
Stop what you are doing and press like you criminal
Macro: Strong up trend; Fuck you higher end of year
Medium Term: Clear momentum loss, Summer chop/pain increasingly likely
Short Term: Focused on shorting until range low is properly tested, selling into short squeezes
Macro News: Same vibe as 2024/2023 Summer; max fud before fresh fights couple months later
Positioning: Consolidated heavy around BTC(nothing new for my boomer ass)
Seasonality: Remember when CT clowned this shit? brace yourself for the Summer Chop threads & start locking in again mid Q3
Macro:
The macro trend remains strong but we are in later stages now. One more wave to ride then who knows, prob a bear phase
Medium Term:
Building value between 102.6 & 107.8k
Shorting any large short squeezes until we test range low where I will look for deadcat bounce long
Liquidity:
Books are pretty thin above so short squeezes are def in the cards with this low vol. Good chance to fade
Bids below looking juicy for a test and bounce
TPO:
Building value between 104 & 105k
Expecting more low vol. chop until we squeeze up or test bids below
Closing Thoughts:
Very little has changed for me on the higher timeframe although I'm leaning more and more defense focused ever since ath in May
BTC is trading higher later this year and once BTC stalls out from this move we'll get the alt season CT has waited for
You just need to be around for it my friends
I wish someone made threads like this in my early days, that's why I make these for you
If you enjoyed throw a like & rt
Thanks friends
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