ca

Artist and Gallerist

[Mark “Danger” Bar 马克 📕 @MarkBarTweets]

You actually need to do this though.

[Justin Welsh @thejustinwelsh]

The easiest way to fall in love with your life is to do a lot of difficult, painful, meaningful stuff for a very long time.

[Josh Rainer @JoshRainerGold]

Probably because of this

[voided @voided]

Crypto ruined my sense of money

I call $1000 a loss and forgot I used to work 8 hours for $80

[Nic Cruz Patane @niccruzpatane]

Mastering extreme context switching is Elon Musk’s Superpower.

[lynk @lynk0x]

When traders show other people what they went through to become profitable.

[Róisín Michaux @RoisinMichaux]

If true this would be a huge win for feminism. Women are grossly underrepresented in the dictatorship and authoritarianism fields.

[Science girl @sciencegirl]

In Romania, a lamb befriended a wolf and follows it everywhere

[Edward A. Perin - Psychologist @DoctorPerin]

My party trick in grad school was interpreting tattoos like a Rorschach test until I got too good at it and people started getting unnerved by how much their permanent choices revealed their personality and mentalization functioning

[Just a Dude Who Invests @DudeWhoInvests]

Realizing Apple $AAPL is about to win the AI race without ever even investing in it…

[taoki @justalexoki]

i still think about this

[Naruto @NarutoNolimits]

He saw the opportunity and changed his life.

[Mustafa @oprydai]

evolution in education, means evolution in the collective thought of a nation.

[gianmarco @GianmarcoSoresi]

Imagine being in jail for possession of cocaine and seeing this shit

[The Medieval Scholar @MedievalScholar]

Men have always yearned

[Math Files @Math_files]

Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn.

So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works.

Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it?

Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them.

For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information.

Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible.

Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.