Crypto Trader Since 2021.
Using this account to journal my trades and my views on the crypto market to improve myself. Studying MT and gems in his community.
JM Hurst part 2 📖📚
CYCLES LENGTH
Market makes a low → rallies → drops → makes another low.
The time between those lows is a cycle.
Example:
If the market makes a major low every 20 weeks,
that’s called a 20-week cycle.
🔵 Very Long-Term Cycles
•18 years
•9 years
•4.5 years (54 months)
•18 months
These are used for macro / big trend analysis.
🟢 Medium-Term Cycles
•9 months
•20 weeks
•80 days
•40 days
Very popular for swing traders.
🧠The 20-week cycle is one of the most tracked ones.
🔴 Short-Term Cycles
•20 days
•10 days
•5 days
💡Used for short-term trading and timing entries.
⏳ “Tolerance” or “Window”:
Markets are not perfect clocks.
If a 20-week cycle averages 140 days,
it won’t always turn exactly on day 140.
It might turn:
•A little early
•A little late
So we use a window.
20-week cycle
140 days
±14 days
That means:
The market could turn anywhere between:
👉 126 days and 154 days
That is the “valid time window.”
Let’s say:
•Last 20-week cycle low was January 1.
•Add 140 days → projected next low around May 20.
•With ±14 days window → valid turn zone is May 6 – June 3.
So during that period:
✅ You look for reversal patterns
✅ You look for momentum exhaustion
✅ You watch volume
✅ You wait for confirmation
⏳ Cycle Clusters⏳
If:
•20-week cycle is due
•40-day cycle is due
•10-day cycle is also due
All in the same week…
That increases probability of a bigger move.
This is called:
👉 Cycle clustering
More cycles lining up = higher chance of a meaningful turn.
💡MOST COMMON CYCLES DURATIONS:
18 years : 6570 D
18 Months 540D ( usual in stocks)
20 weeks 140D, tolerance 14days, mostly used.
20 days , swing highs/lows
Big upside always leads to big downside.
Big downside always leads to big upside.
Your entire outcome depends on how accurately you time the most aggressive reversals on Bitcoin.
You’ll either:
1️⃣ Make life-changing money.
2️⃣ Secure good profits.
3️⃣ Break even -- no profit, no loss.
4️⃣ Take a painful -30% to -50% hit.
5️⃣ Get completely wrecked, watching your portfolio evaporate while praying for a miracle recovery.
Timing the market isn’t optional -- it’s a must.
Cut the retarded belief that timing the market is impossible. That’s exactly what whales want you to think, so you keep your money sitting in the market, ready for them to take it.
Next year's misinformation will be overwhelming if you let it in.
Disconnect from every "For you" feed on your social platforms. You don't need personalized content. You need clarity to recognize manipulation, resist emotional traps, and stay rational when narratives are engineered to provoke fear, outrage, or blind compliance.
If you won't do it for yourself, do it for the people who depend on you.
The "matrix" will intensify. Only those who deliberately step back will see straight.
Catching the Local Bottom in 2026 👁️📉
As some of you may already know, I plan to re-enter the market with spot positions between January to the end of February, but I want to talk about the major confluences that I'm watching.
$USDT.D - 1W BB [7.4%]
#ETHBTC - 1W BB [0.029]
#ETHD - 1W BB [10.5%]
#ETH - 4D BB [$2,000]
#BTC - 3D/2D pBB inside 4D OB [$72,000] or Demand zone at 2M OB [$62,000]
#TOTAL - Double bottom retesting 2W OB [2.3T] or Demand zone at 3W pOB [2T]
#TOTAL2 - 2W OB [975B] while respecting the PSL on the weekly TF [1.01T] or Double bottom at PSL [830B]
#VIX - A sharp spike in price action
There are also other major confluences that you can watch, such as EUR pairs, HTF KLs or hitting simultaneously across high-cap coins, USDC.D, COIN, etc. The more confluences you have at the time, the higher the chance of a successful reversal 📈.
If you have a KL that lies just above a PSH or below a PSL, then keep a close eye on the swings on the HTF to see if PA respects the swing high/low with a candle closure below/above the swing 🔖
Your window to buy is when the HTF KLs hit simultaneously across the whole market 🔖
Set your alerts from now 🚨
Fear will build up over time as we approach my timeframe with a strong, powerful move to the downside 📉. Whales will amplify your fearful emotions to their needs. When you feel maximum fear within yourself, from others and see a bearish narrative looming across multiple sources with a high following, then it's probably a good time to buy 💰.
Some crypto accounts are already sharing this timeline with negative thoughts. For example, "selling pressure" in January and eye-catching words in BOLD. These bearish ideas will only intensify as we get closer and closer👉 https://t.co/LfWGfDvF3s
Nobody will believe Alice Liu when the emotions intensify, creating an "I told you so" moment soon after, building back the trust which is already set in stone 👉 https://t.co/95f6vy9yqP
Trump was kind enough to give us a timeline range to keep an eye on back in August '25. This happens to lie between January to February 👁️. Many will think he's the worst person to take advice from as we approach his timeline because they've lost so much money from stocks & crypto since October '25👉 https://t.co/bBPEexT1fk
Another thing to keep in mind is what price action did during the Chinese New Year this year. CNY is widely known to "give" bullish price action since 2021 [An event known for positivity]. However, this year's price action had a very dramatic drop, which kept falling until the local bottom in April '25. People will naturally remember what happened to them previously, thinking the same thing will occur, only for the complete opposite to happen 🔄.
Maintain a contrarian mindset as the herd consensus is generally incorrect 🐑.
We've been in a kangaroo market 🦘. We get a couple of months of 📈, then a couple of months of 📉. Rinse and repeat. Retail players remain stuck in a dream as they want explosive price action from every coin like the previous market cycle.
Go with what the current data shows you 👉 https://t.co/rbsu0pgX5d
Lastly, let's talk about MT. He's obviously been speaking about bullish price action around CNY in 2026 for a while now, and the last thing you want to do is go against this man's word on the HTF 👉 https://t.co/I4jJmN0gtv
Decode his message using obvious tactics and read the comments underneath his post to familiarise yourself. He counts as a +1 confluence on the HTF for me personally.
As you can probably already tell, whales are building a narrative validation for Q1 '26 before the destruction 💥. Whether you're on the right side of the drustuction depends entirely on you 🫵
Use my Confluence educational post to help yourself understand what I see. There's a reason why it's my most viewed post on my X profile 👉 https://t.co/3eAQ3l87kb
Everything I said above could become invalid, and the plan could change at any time. I will update if I sense any sudden changes.
The day will come when the very few who can really read the markets will say: "I don't think there are more optimal levels left to pull from these charts"
That's when the biggest "GTFO ⚠️" signal will ring.
Most traders think they lose because of their strategy.
They always think they need more.
But almost nobody asks the real question:
“Why do I act differently in the market than outside of it?”
Because trading isn’t a battle against the chart, it’s a battle against yourself.
1. Your brain is built for survival, not performance.
The same instincts that kept your ancestors alive, fear, impulse, the need for certainty, are the exact instincts that destroy traders.
2. You don’t lose because you’re wrong.
You lose because you can’t accept being wrong.
Holding losers.
Moving stops.
Adding to hope.
Trying to “be right” instead of doing your job.
3. FOMO isn’t about the market.
It’s about self-trust.
If you trusted yourself, you wouldn’t chase.
If you trusted your plan, you wouldn’t react.
If you trusted your analysis, you wouldn’t panic.
4. Your edge isn’t your strategy.
Your edge is your behavior.
Everyone can learn a system.
Almost no one can execute one without their emotions taking over.
The market will always test the part of you that’s weakest.
Your job is to strengthen that part, not blame the chart.
So before you place your next trade, ask yourself:
Are you here to prove something… or to perform?
Are you reacting to the market… or responding to it?
Are you trying to win… or trying to trade the plan and accept every outcome?
Master your mind, and the market becomes quiet.
Fail to, and it will expose every crack in you.
This game is personal.
The charts are just the mirror.
I think it’s time as well for everyone to start paying attention and filter out more- why do you think you’re quite literally being bombarded with endless amount of news everyday?
Think about the amount of news, information , their extent and how some news seem extremely shocking only to fade and disappear within days to be replaced with another batch…
This is no coincidence. The news rarely shock anyone anymore.
People are basically being programmed to become numb and not to care. Eventually nothing is going to be shocking enough. But when the biggest bombshells fall who’s going to react?
2026 is going to be quite literally a reset. Year ONE caries a lot of change. You either become an avalanche or you get buried under one.
There are three traps of Satan that steal joy and peace:
1⃣ Regretting about the past
2⃣ Fear for the future,
3⃣ Ingratitude for the present.
– St Anthony the Great
The⚽️FIFA⚽️Effect
Most FIFA events have been preceded
(at times also followed) by major downside moves in the market ( $BTC, $SPX)
Take a look at the charts:
Happened in 2022, 2018, 2014, 2010, 2002,...
This is in line with my theory of a bloody🩸Q2
🎯11 June–19 July 2026