trader _Alpaca_

Optimistic realist

Know thyself

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

@WSJ prayers go out to the safety of Elon, the old media machine has turned against Elon, since Twitter as an open town hall for genuine discussion would threaten the propaganda machine

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

BTC may '22, 3day 200 ma (red) rejection

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

BTC nov '18, 3day 200 (red) downside rejection

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

is this STF bullish capitulation?

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

Would be beautiful if we relief bounced from here
- too many was confident/hoping for relief rally,
- now very violent shakeout, which havn't broken STF upwards structure

Invalidation close under 4140 S&P

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

VIX, 2008-present era
+ US10Y, Nas100, DXY

Major Vol. Spikes marked change shifts or continuations of major trends.

Obs:
1. Nas100 relation -> shortening duration between confirm. spike (white) and Nas top; '11 3y7m, '16 2y7m, '20 1y8m

2. US10Y breakout = end of era?

[BTC Status Alert 📊 @btc_status]

🌐 BITCOIN - CME

Daily：2022-04-29
　Price：$38,997.34 (-2.3%)
　Vol：6,258 (-65.7%)
　OI：10,119 (-2.6%)

📄 COT Report：2022-04-26
Asset Mgr
　Net：5,624 (-0.4%)
　LS：92.2% (+0.6)
Lev Funds
　Net：-5,098 (+1.3%)
　LS：20.1% (+4)

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

BTC looks primed for a small relief rally.

Let the goblins work for it

however, the flush seem imminent; all about patience

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

Reckon, we might very well

first, liquidate longs 37.1 - 36k pocket
second, liquidate shorts 40 - 44k (above weekly and monthly BB support)
third, major flush peak capitulation

Pretty painful, very bitcoinish and very very difficult to play

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

Macro targets for swings; Risk-on, risk-off

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

DXY Historic breakout happening right now

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

DXY 1 month

no end in sight; beast mode on

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

2018 notes; study of the flush

takeaways: don't aggressively short before *major major* short liquidation

Flush imminent, but quite obvious

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

@Pentosh1 kinda like scenario 1?

Could be brutal;
totally unexpected for most participants

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

clean rejection

no end in sight, this move just started; i.e. don't try to hero long

capitulation imminent
patience

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

3 day BTC
- deviation or rejection?

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

Big week ahead

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

@blknoiz06 @CryptoKaleo most beautiful squiggley lines I've seen in a while

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

definite weakness and uncertainty,

Sentiment extremely bearish

Maybe may sell-off in early progress?

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

sell in may
- and go away

[trader _Alpaca_ @0xAlekMacro]

we still not in may