PickACard

@waifusanonymous
constant midwit

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

Crypto guys seeing Trump cave 48 hours after their entire portfolio was liquidated

[Natalie Brunell ⚡️ @natbrunell]

Incredible new conversation with Luke Gromen.

We cover:
🔸 Fed rate cuts and market outlook
🔸 Stock ATHs vs economic realities
🔸 U.S. stocks back the dollar?
🔸 BRICS net settlement in gold: “rules-based order is dead”
🔸 China’s rare earth advantage
🔸 Why isn’t Bitcoin $200k+?

Timecodes:

00:00 Will the Fed Cut Rates?
1:11 Economic Divergences 6:27 Fiscal Dominance Math 13:56 Fourth Turning & Turchin 16:52 Charlie Kirk Assassination Aftermath 17:58 What is the Rules-Based Global Order 23:45 BRICS vs U.S. Monetary Resets, GENIUS Act 32:55 Trump Choosing Peace, Not War 42:26 China, Rare-Earths Chokepoint 50:54 Why Isn't Bitcoin Price Higher? 53:11 Bitcoin Treasury Companies vs Spot ETFs 55:27 “No Yield” FUD Answered 1:02:06 What Could Luke Gromen Be Wrong About?

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

No. This is the elephant in the room around the US reshoring narrative. Wall St assumes the US has sufficient labor and skilled trades to build all this stuff without touching off a wage spiral that blows up the UST market.

To reshore, the US is going to have to pay skilled trades properly for the first time in 40-50 yrs; the real value of bonds will not survive the experience. The Fed (or Treasury) will have to YCC them all with printed USD.

The fact that China can build a 1GW nuke power plant for 1/6 the cost of the US suggests the USD must fall 83% v. CNY for the US to compete (5/6 cheaper = 83%).

[Radigan Carter @radigancarter]

Thanks for flagging this. Russell Napier, Luke Gromen, Grant Williams, and others were way ahead of the curve on financial repression so credit to them.

If others are reading this and don't understand financial repression where the risk free rate is/will be held under the rate of inflation it is/continuing to be where our purchasing power and investment return will not keep up with the price increases of assets we want to buy.

This will is being done so governments can reduce their debt to gdp, I think of it as the government and central banks doing what is necessary for social stability, which comes at the cost of our individual happiness.

If you want to read a historical account of bankers and politicians doing it before read the book Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World then if you want a deep dive into how the bond market was originally designed as a check on sovereign powers doing this and it's only through regulatory capture it has become the risk free rate of return, read The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest.

As Morgan Stanley CEO describes, people may feel like they are getting wealthy on a relative basis, but they likely won't on a real basis after inflation and paying taxes which is by design. Someone has to pay for all the lost wars, the promised unfunded entitlements, and so forth and it's easier to do it this way than forcing an electorate that hates consequences to decide who has to pay since they will simply vote for whoever tells them they don't and none of this is true.

We all get to choose how we make money off this. Some will buy bonds thinking the government will find a way to lower rates across the curve, others will not and prefer real assets. Either way they are positioning themselves knowing politicians and bankers will do what is best for social stability since that preserves their power.

There is ikely an entire generation that doesn't understand what is happening since they haven't lived through it. As a classically trained economist apologized in the FT earlier this week, he missed the entire move of gold and miners because he's been taught to avoid the inert, yieldless asset his entire career. I felt a bit sorry for the man, he is used to a world of laws, not one where might makes right and if you want to be rich you simply pull the skimask down and take what you want.

I tend to think we live in the latter world, and always have, it has just been since 1945 the U.S. could use the world of laws to do that, and after seizing Russian assets in 2022 we've showed the world we're now back to pulling the ski mask down.

Why thought we could get away it it. Now that NATO has lost in Europe and global institutions like the ICC are not doing what western politicians want, the silk sheet is being removed and we all get to see the hammer that was always under it.

My way of thinking is people who want to argue about political influence on the sanctity of Fed independence or CBDC are evil and stablecoins are better are wasting my time. There is no difference between any of those things for me as an individual since no matter which way it goes, as a responsible individual I still get the hammer when it suits politicians and bankers.

Politicians and bankers serve themselves by thinking they are serving everyone by doing what they must to preserve social stability which also preserves their power.

Does it matter if the Fed or JPMorgan is freezing my account? Not really, the results for me are the same, I'm frozen out of my account to force me to comply.

So they do not serve me or my family, or yours. If you disagree, I envy you still believing and hope you never find out you're wrong. It is a disconcerting feeling.

Personally I see those arguments as a distraction aimed at wasting our time and energy so we can't see and think clearly, then act decisively for our families.

For me, if politicians and bankers had our own best interest at heart they would not be wasting millions of lives so they didn't have to admit they were wrong in a war that was lost two years ago. They would not be protecting predators on the Epstein list. They would not have forced us who served faithfully to get a vaccine or lose our professions. They would not steal years of our lives that we risk earning money which they then take through inflation.

Their intentions do not matter. By our fruits we will be known.

So we accept this is the system we live in and build strong and beautiful lives designed to not waste time or energy on people who do not care about us.

Good luck to everyone, our families depend on us. RC

[PickACard @0xPickACard]

@chortly Went for the Miata instead 😁

[fejau @fejau_inc]

"as you can see, BTC will be hitting $250k very soon according to this M2 chart"

[PickACard @0xPickACard]

@layofftheweed Welcome to California

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Moody’s Ratings downgraded the U.S. government’s credit rating on Friday, citing large fiscal deficits and rising interest costs https://t.co/vhSaMmxIXj

[Glenn Hodl @glennhodl]

Not often you get such hot takes over on the Reddit cesspool, but this from 420osrs is pure 🔥🔥🔥

[PickACard @0xPickACard]

@layofftheweed Nah just etfs :(

[PickACard @0xPickACard]

@LukeGromen @grok how would this be accomplished?

[Daniel Batten @DSBatten]

We're currently in talks with the owner of this landfill, and others

The landfill’s emissions (~6.0 Mt CO₂e/year) are on a par with the emissions of Estonia, Cyprus, or Nepal

Their energy is stranded, and they know Bitcoin mining offers a unique solution

Watch this space

[PickACard @0xPickACard]

@layofftheweed Yeah for real, but now the geopolitical shitshow doesn't feel too stressful after going through what we did with those portfolio swings. A number of times I thought crypto might be dead for good because of that adderall goon sam bankrupting everyone, along with 3 arrows

[PickACard @0xPickACard]

@benjamincowen Thankfully I learned not to do that from Trading Places

[PickACard @0xPickACard]

@karbonbased We all got what we wished for with the crime cycle

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

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