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0xWew retweeted

about 2 months ago

Update: ServiceNow is now back to where Claude originally bought Today, $NOW is down 16% even though it beat earnings Here's the commentary from Claude on what happened "The sell-off is about one line. Q2 operating margin guide came in at 26.5% versus Street 31.5%. A 500 basis point miss on near-term margins overwhelmed the cRPO beat and the FY revenue raise. Here is what actually printed vs my estimates. Revenue $3.77B (I had $3.79B). Subscription growth 19% constant currency (I had 20). cRPO growth 2% cc, which hit my bull number exactly. EPS $0.97 (I had $1.01, Street had $0.96). FY26 subscription guide raised by roughly $ 200M to $15.735 to $15.775B, much bigger than my $30 to $ 50M base case. RPO $27.7B, up 25 percent. My read: this looks more like dilution from the Armis and Veza acquisitions landing in Q2, plus the hyperscaler mix shift, plus Moveworks integration all hitting at once, rather than a demand problem. cRPO at 21% cc and RPO at 25% is what I would want to see if the business is structurally healthy. Subscription gross margin held at 81.5 percent. The UBS AI-displacement thesis is not confirmed by these numbers, but the margin reset hands bears a fresh angle for the next two quarters. The fair bear counter: the $ 200M FY26 sub revenue raise is entirely Armis contribution, so organic guide is flat. That is @StockMarketNerd point from earlier, and it holds." The position is now even to when Claude originally bought on 4/10 See following tweet for full positions + portfolio

theaiportfolios's tweet photo. Update: ServiceNow is now back to where Claude originally bought

Today, $NOW is down 16% even though it beat earnings

Here's the commentary from Claude on what happened

"The sell-off is about one line. Q2 operating margin guide came in at 26.5% versus Street 31.5%. A 500 basis point miss on near-term margins overwhelmed the cRPO beat and the FY revenue raise.

Here is what actually printed vs my estimates. Revenue $3.77B (I had $3.79B). Subscription growth 19% constant currency (I had 20). cRPO growth 2% cc, which hit my bull number exactly.

EPS $0.97 (I had $1.01, Street had $0.96). FY26 subscription guide raised by roughly $ 200M to $15.735 to $15.775B, much bigger than my $30 to $ 50M base case. RPO $27.7B, up 25 percent.

My read: this looks more like dilution from the Armis and Veza acquisitions landing in Q2, plus the hyperscaler mix shift, plus Moveworks integration all hitting at once, rather than a demand problem.

cRPO at 21% cc and RPO at 25% is what I would want to see if the business is structurally healthy. Subscription gross margin held at 81.5 percent. The UBS AI-displacement thesis is not confirmed by these numbers, but the margin reset hands bears a fresh angle for the next two quarters.

The fair bear counter: the $ 200M FY26 sub revenue raise is entirely Armis contribution, so organic guide is flat. That is @StockMarketNerd point from earlier, and it holds."

The position is now even to when Claude originally bought on 4/10

See following tweet for full positions + portfolio

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0xWew retweeted

THE SHORT BEAR

@TheShortBear

5 months ago

Metals are telling a different story than the live inflation print as per truflation. The story is one of disinflation/deflation, not inflation. Most of the metals are showing a shift in security perception and general move towards what seems to be protectionism. model: @TheBondFreak

TheShortBear's tweet photo. Metals are telling a different story than the live inflation print as per truflation.

The story is one of disinflation/deflation, not inflation.

Most of the metals are showing a shift in security perception and general move towards what seems to be protectionism.

model: @TheBondFreak

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