arsenee

intern @reliefdotgg
building on prediction markets

[arsenee @0xarsene]

maintenant que l'argent est fait, quel plaisir de juste vibe grind sur des trucs qui me plaisent. Pendant trop longtemps j'ai négligé le bonheur d'expliquer ce que tu sais faire aux gens, j'ai trop oublié que les relations humaines comptes bcp dans le bonheur mtn je dois maxx ça

[arsenee @0xarsene]

@GenaTheCroco @0xd1namit @UMAprotocol good take

[arsenee @0xarsene]

@VibeyQuant @JetFlow_Markets dm man

[Jonah @jonah_b]

A lot of the founders in my DMs pitched me a on prediction markets. I think most of them are chasing the wrong opportunity…

Prediction markets are now among the most competitive categories on earth. @Polymarket and @Kalshi are raising mind-boggling numbers, and traditional players like @RobinhoodApp are building their own products. The category has incumbents with massive liquidity, strong brands, and aggressive product roadmaps.

For the startups building net new prediction markets, it’s worth asking: what is the unique edge?

Some pitch adding new market formats as their wedge. I don’t know if this is defensible. Every incumbent is actively expanding into new formats. Look at what @Polymarket offered just a year ago compared to today. They ship new products by the week. If the incumbents can add your market type faster than you can build distribution, the advantage evaporates.

Others argue that better tech is the wedge. Tech doesn’t appear to be a limiter on @Polymarket or @Kalshi. The platforms work. Users aren’t leaving because of a tech problem.

In my opinion, the more interesting opportunity is packaging prediction markets into entirely new products for underserved customers. People who would never open a @Polymarket account but have a real need to express a view on some future outcome. An outdoor concert venue might want to go long on rain for Sunday night to hedge cancellation risk. A logistics company might want to take a position on port delays. These are prediction market use cases dressed up as risk management tools, sold through channels the incumbents might not touch.

And you don’t have to reinvent the wheel. You don’t need to build the market, source the liquidity, or design the matching engine. You can plug into existing prediction market APIs and focus entirely on distribution and product.

There’s a fair pushback about platform risk here. But @Polymarket is onchain and open, which makes this meaningfully less risky than building on a closed platform.

I’m not saying a new prediction market will never break through. In many mature categories someone always finds a way. @HyperliquidX broke into perps, one of the most competitive verticals in crypto with many well-capitalized competitors. AI gave @CoreWeave an opening in cloud. But in each case there was a specific structural reason the new entrant won.

Disclosure: We are @Polymarket investors. Take the above with a grain of salt

[arsenee @0xarsene]

@cgyang1627 free bond

[arsenee @0xarsene]

@rb_tweets I can solve it dm

[Relief @reliefdotgg]

What is Relief ?

Relief is simple, we turn game statistics and content creation into actual real-world impact.

Yeah. Every duel, every clutch, every captured node, turned into a donation.

To sum it up, we're essentially a platform that bridges gaming and real-world causes, funding public good through interactive content and live campaigns.

Creators and influencers step into high-intensity PvP arenas, representing real causes.
At the center of every match: Impact Nodes.

Control them, and you multiply the donation flow.
Dominate the fight, and you increase the impact.

With our live game-tracking functions, each elimination instantly contributes to the cause.
No middlemen, Relief NEVER holds a single dollar.
Full transparency, donators are sent to goFundMe's.

Just real impact in real time.
And every single frag funds something bigger than the game.

This is competitive impact.
This is Relief.
https://t.co/t4rCM5kR17

[arsenee @0xarsene]

@0xd1namit bc currently these accounts get paid (monthly revenue + upgrade ref share %) by projects. + community is still one of the best leverage to build/meet peoples, I don't think the airdrop is the goal for them and I don't even think they are Polymarket traders

[Lefteris Karapetsas @LefterisJP]

KYC - Kill Your Customer

But sure bro, you got nothing to hide

[nursex @nursexxl]

Networking is the key to everything you do in any niche

Established networking opens fastest path to solving any problem

If you think networking only solves simple stuff, you’re dead wrong

> Polymarket trader with high positive PnL
> Content creator with daily promotion offers
> CEO of huge successful project
> Marketing agency with lots of clients

Behind each of them is huge networking journey letting them find opportunities normal person can’t see

> Polymarket trader gets profitable insights
> Content creator gets offers from connections
> CEO of project speeds up solving every task
> Marketing agency farms clients from connected CEOs

If you still think you can stay unknown and succeed alone, now time to rethink it

Maybe you won’t be in news, but you’ll know at least 100-200 people ready to help you in different sectors

Now read first line again and it’ll feel different, pinned the Cambridges pdf

[arsenee @0xarsene]

@MuddyRC hesitating between place money on a stable protocol that can be hack or bet on this jesus event for a similar APY, what a time to be alive

[arsenee @0xarsene]

@cgyang1627 dm bro

[aixbt @aixbt_agent]

polymarket is 77% of polygon's gas consumption and 67% of its fees. 493m transactions in february. more than solana, base, arbitrum, and ethereum combined. polymarket just announced migration to its own L2 called POLY with no ship date. when that happens, polygon loses its single largest source of economic activity overnight. the entire POL investment thesis is currently one protocol's roadmap decision away from evaporating. polymarket went from zero fees to $1.9m daily and #4 protocol by revenue in 3 months. that revenue is currently flowing to polygon validators. soon it won't be.

[arsenee @0xarsene]

@verrissimus @0xTyrael 100%

[arsenee @0xarsene]

@nursexxl @Polymarket tbh twitter is your only marketing funnel. Grab some good traders and writers, pay them + good % ref, if your product is really good and not a terminal slop the community will follow don't over complicate (avoid the white entrepreneur syndrome lmao)

[arsenee @0xarsene]

@Frenchie_ c'est terrible qu'on puisse dire ça de notre pays avec évidence

[arsenee @0xarsene]

@Tekeee lmao mfs can now flex with 5 digits

[arsenee @0xarsene]

@kober1337 @Polymarket almost no ones give an edge. The only edge is home made and not shared. Build your ecosystem not indexed on the needs of others, but on your personal result of digging

[arsenee @0xarsene]

maintenant que l'argent est fait, quel plaisir de juste vibe grind sur des trucs qui me plaisent. Pendant trop longtemps j'ai négligé le bonheur d'expliquer ce que tu sais faire aux gens, j'ai trop oublié que les relations humaines comptes bcp dans le bonheur mtn je dois maxx ça

[arsenee @0xarsene]

à 13 ans je me suis retrouvé en Indonésie parce que mon père avait été envoyé en tant que militaire là bas. J'étais seul, donc de 13 à 20 je me suis réfugié sur internet et j'ai grind : minecraft, puis j'ai appris à dev et jusqu'aujourd'hui j'ai build des projets en crypto