0xbobaa

prediction markets researcher. trading polymarket and posting what i find along the way

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

https://t.co/QBCbo2DPIB

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

@MaxCrypto facts

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

someone lost $527k on polymarket today trying to arb a resolved market

strategy announced they sold BTC
the YES market was still open at 80c
looked like free money

polymarket rule: bets placed after public announcement = void or loss. he didn't know. put in half a million

someone else made $35k on the same market just knowing saylor never sells

two trades. one market. different homework

winner: https://t.co/OVSgOXehao
loser: https://t.co/OR82PjW1Qy

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

man found free 20% on a market that already resolved

aped in $527,000

then learned polymarket voids every bet placed after the news goes public

it's all gone. void. zero

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

just a japanese salaryman who loves gambling in his spare time

no at 55.5c avg. 114,072 shares. $50,441 payout. 137% return

check full profile: https://t.co/OUzOyyL5ew

the contract said MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31

nobody checked what by May 31 actually meant

it meant the 8-K had to clear by May 31
the filing came June 1. one day late. No resolves at $1

$50,441 on a one day filing delay
not a macro call. not a Saylor read. a bureaucratic lag

the fine print paid better than the headline

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

you ever enter a position and it immediately goes against you

feels like the market is watching you specifically

it kind of is

london business school went through every polymarket trade from 2023 to 2025
1.72 million accounts. $13.76 billion. every bet

3.14% of accounts drive all price discovery
they move before the news drops
they're already positioned when you open the app

67% of accounts absorb 100% of losses on the platform
not some. all

the study flagged 1,950 accounts as likely insiders.
two got arrested last month.
1,948 are still trading

you're not losing to the market.
you're losing to a specific person
who knew the answer before the question was public

that trade that went against you immediately?
someone on the other side wasn't guessing

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

@AshCrypto Not all altcoins are valid, only a small group, I think it's important to clarify this

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

@mmoyshaa main thing is that the information is good

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

you ever enter a position and it immediately goes against you

feels like the market is watching you specifically

it kind of is

london business school went through every polymarket trade from 2023 to 2025
1.72 million accounts. $13.76 billion. every bet

3.14% of accounts drive all price discovery
they move before the news drops
they're already positioned when you open the app

67% of accounts absorb 100% of losses on the platform
not some. all

the study flagged 1,950 accounts as likely insiders.
two got arrested last month.
1,948 are still trading

you're not losing to the market.
you're losing to a specific person
who knew the answer before the question was public

that trade that went against you immediately?
someone on the other side wasn't guessing

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

https://t.co/QBCbo2DPIB

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

@Nekt_0 okay im on my way

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

@Nekt_0 is it difficult to write a bot like this?

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

@Nekt_0 this guy is a genius

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

@0x_fokki i look pretty much the same at school, except im not in tokyo

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

@0x_fokki how could she have forgotten something like that...

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

@Lutchyn13 @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketSport cool bot. i should give it a try

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

@nofadsec I'm not quite sure where to appeal it

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

just a japanese salaryman who loves gambling in his spare time

no at 55.5c avg. 114,072 shares. $50,441 payout. 137% return

check full profile: https://t.co/OUzOyyL5ew

the contract said MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31

nobody checked what by May 31 actually meant

it meant the 8-K had to clear by May 31
the filing came June 1. one day late. No resolves at $1

$50,441 on a one day filing delay
not a macro call. not a Saylor read. a bureaucratic lag

the fine print paid better than the headline

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

BREAKING: $MSTR is down -6% today and has crashed -70% in the last year.

Strategy built its entire identity around one trade, buy Bitcoin, never sell.

Yesterday, for the first time in 41 months, Saylor sold 32 BTC worth $2.5M, just 0.0038% of his total holdings.

The company holds 843,706 BTC at an average cost of $75,701 per coin. That position is now sitting at a $6 billion unrealized loss.

The market cap has fallen from over $160 billion to $48.2 billion in 11 months, wiping out $111.8 billion in value.

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

@nofadsec okay, ill take a look

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

@slash1sol @minmax_one I'll definitely save this and use it

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

@0xTrackmind did he take back what he said?

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

@WatcherGuru will he sell everything at a loss?

[0xbobaa @0xbobaaa]

@shmidtqq how can i achieve the same thing?