Ex-Citadel Quant Researcher on Trading Power & Gas — One of the Most Asymmetric Markets in the World
Neel Somani (@neelsomani) — ex-Citadel commodities QR. Built the models the discretionary traders used to price power.
"It's table stakes to put down seven figures of collateral in order to seriously trade power."
We cover:
- What a commodities QR actually does — building models traders use, sitting in PM meetings & how "slope" (your real cut of P&L) works
- Where power edge comes from: congestion — the physics of a wire that heats up, droops, and can't carry more
- How a hub trade gets built from the ground up: weather → demand → which units switch on → your price vs. the market's
- Why blindly going long power is a structurally losing trade — skew assets always price above expected value
- The anatomy of a blow-up: doubling down into the Feb 2021 Texas freeze as the price ran to $9,000/MWh
- Why hedge funds trade power & gas but mostly steer clear of oil — geopolitics & risk you can't model
- "Binding constraints" — the pricing model he carried off the grid and into startups, AI & supply chains
- Why the guys who take risk for a living buy index funds with their own money
Highlights:
(00:00) Intro
(01:12) Quant researcher execution models within multi-manager hedge funds
(07:35) How transmission line congestion drives alpha in power markets
(13:24) Capital intensity and managing risk profiles of high-skew assets
(19:19) Why commodity desks prefer domestic power over geopolitical oil risk
(22:55) Portfolio construction and risk mitigation during tail-risk freeze events
(31:36) Capitalizing on the physical infrastructure constraints of AI data centers
(36:25) How agentic architecture redefines software engineering and technical moats
(43:04) Quant career opportunity cost relative to the AI paradigm shift
(56:15) Variant views on venture multiples and agentic customer acquisition economics
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Since then, he’s up over $1 Million. How bullish is he on ASTEROID?
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