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0xHalbstein
@0xHalbstein
Web3 Insight & MEME. | Learning Tokenomics.
Anonymous Twitter minion. | Don't like bananas.
127.0.0.1
Joined December 2022
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349 Posts
➥ The Ethereum EVM Era Ends Here
@ethereum is preparing for its most radical change since launch, replacing the EVM with RISC-V.
Not a tweak, but a complete re-architecture of the execution layer.
How will this change the future of $ETH?
Let's dive in 🧵
...
➠ The Problem with the EVM
The EVM unlocked DeFi and NFTs, but today it’s a bottleneck.
➢ zkEVMs run 50–800x slower because every instruction goes through an interpreter instead of executing directly.
➢ The 256-bit stack wastes resources in most operations.
➢ Precompiles add complexity, risk, and consensus fragility.
➢ Outdated design makes compiler optimization harder.
Result → expensive proofs, scaling limits, protocol bloat.
...
➠ What RISC-V?
RISC-V is a minimalist, open instruction set (~47 base instructions) that has already become the standard for zkVMs (9 out of 10 use it).
➢ Backed by a formal spec (SAIL) → enables proofs of correctness.
➢ Hardware proving path (ASICs/FPGAs) already tested.
➢ Supported by mainstream dev tools ( @rustlang, @golang , Python ).
➢ Lean, simple, and easier to verify than the EVM.
It fits perfectly into Ethereum’s broader “Lean Execution” vision.
...
➠ Migration Strategy
@VitalikButerin outlines a 3-phase path to move from EVM to RISC-V.
➢ Phase 1: Use RISC-V for precompiles. Low-risk, limited scope, but gives real-world testing.
➢ Phase 2: Run a dual-VM setup where EVM and RISC-V co-exist. Contracts can interact across both, so nothing breaks.
➢ Phase 3: The EVM itself becomes an emulated contract inside RISC-V. Legacy apps keep running, but Ethereum consolidates to one clean execution layer.
This gradual path avoids disruption, preserves compatibility, and lets RISC-V prove itself step by step.
...
➠ Why RISC V
➢ ~100x cheaper proofs, path to 10,000 TPS.
➢ Lower fees, faster settlement for users.
➢ Developers gain access to mainstream languages.
➢ ZK rollups benefit massively; optimistic rollups see minimal disruption.
...
➠ Real-World Example
Teams are already building with RISC-V at the core.
➢ @SuccinctLabs SP1 zkVM → uses a precompile-centric design to remove cryptographic bottlenecks and achieve faster finality.
➢ @cartesiproject → runs its rollup VM on RISC-V, bringing Linux and mainstream dev tools into Web3.
➢ @RunningCKB → adopted RISC-V early for its flexibility and security in smart contract execution.
➢ @boundlesshq (RISK Zero) → zkVM implementing the full RISC-V ISA as a zero-knowledge circuit, enabling scalable verifiable computation for any chain.
...
➠ Risks
The shift to RISC-V comes with real challenges. Gas metering on a general ISA is complex, compilers like LLVM add new trust assumptions, and reproducible builds remain unresolved.
Some developers also warn about execution slowdowns and backward compatibility issues. This is why the roadmap is phased: test first, then scale.
...
➠ Wrap-Up
This shift has the potential to change Ethereum at its core. From an execution engine weighed down by complexity, to a lean and verifiable base layer designed for scale.
If RISC-V proves itself, Ethereum moves closer to becoming the trust layer for global finance and applications.
Is Ethereum ready to change from the EVM to RISC-V?
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Cycle Network has unveiled our next-phase focus: A Seamless 'VisaNet' for Crypto.
Congrats on the next stage!
Partnership Announcement
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Cycle Network is pleased to announce the partnership with @unicornxdex, the fastest on chain trading ecosystem.
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Partnership Announcement
@cyclenetwork_GO X @unicornxdex
Cycle Network is pleased to announce the partnership with @unicornxdex, the fastest on chain trading ecosystem.
How to Participate on @unicornxdex: https://t.co/whhMGXhwHY
Together, we’ll deliver an enhanced trading experience for all users.
Key Focus=Nov 15, 2025 (Mainnet Upgrade)
ACDC 161 full call summary : https://t.co/drsalHgWUw
The Incremental Buyer (doomer family offices) [long read]
AI and Innovation
the reality is that despite every AI executive saying that AI will result in a health revolution, the Genomics and Biotech ETF is down 34% since 2020. And this is after we got global traction for the largest ever genetic experiment (COVID vaccines).
Jensen goes to Biotech conferences trying to force the matter. Sam Altman and Eric Schmidt frequently talk about synthetic biology development as key "AI use cases"
Bryan Johnson, the largest longevity influencer put $100 million of his money in a longevity focused fund that - if we're to go off his YouTube interview about money - had no returns since 2017. One of its large bets was Gingko Bioworks which is down over 90% since its IPO)
There is not strong evidence, so far, that AI accelerates scientific development in aggregate outside of the development of AI itself. Or at least, generates meaningful financial impact doing so
Consider AI, GDP and immigration. If AI were supercharging productivity - we would have less inflation. Instead, inflation is still above target. GDP is decelerating rather than accelerating despite huge AI Capex. If there were a panacea of wealth from AI - or chatbots could somehow bridge cultural divides - then nations globally wouldn't be increasingly closing their borders. Budgets wouldn't need to be cut - as demand for fixed income in a structurally deflationary environment of abundance would be high.
if AI were an effective teacher at any meaningful scale, then test scores wouldn't be in free fall.
The End of "Blue Sky" Thinking
We're 2+ years in with powerful models available at large scale, globally for free. It's not early days anymore. As of Q4 2024 Nonfarm Business sector productivity is growing 1.2% per year... not nearly enough to justify the "productivity revolution claims" (1950s saw frequent 5-10% jumps).
The structural basis here - that won't change - is the Law of Intelligence Margins. An intelligence margin is that which generates the highest amount of profit per unit of compute. The things with the highest intelligence margins are the legacy distraction economy (Instagram, WeChat, Tik Tok). Robotics and genomics have low intelligence margins.
This would be fine if Tik Tok and Instagram reels didn't cook everyones' brains. But they do. AI makes all the old distraction economy products more addictive. There is a reason that e-commerce and social media companies (BABA and META) are the biggest AI model developers and GPU buyers.
As many managers will also note - AI is also cooking employee brains. Many junior engineers raised in the AI era cannot do things from first principles, and end up building un maintainable code bases. They just click "accept" on every cursor prompt. Some hear "Vibe coding", whereas the wise hear "explosion of technical debt".
This explains - in part - why the big tech companies are implementing hiring freezes despite roaring stock prices. Within 6 months you might as well build an agent instead of a completely AI reliant zoomer/genAI dev.
The Base Case
So - you have this bizarre base case:
1] AI is very much real and probably will eventually accelerate scientific development, including radical longevity ... in the long run
2] On its way there it will probably cook most peoples' brains with AI avatars, customized ads and gaming, pornography, and all supercharged variations of the distraction economy. Or simply by doing their work for them so they're not able to do so themselves
3] Because of #2 AI agents becoming employees (or potentially Robots as well / Waymos etc) -- means that over time, there will be less and less use for people. We already have a mental model for what happens when you have structural unemployment and a good distraction economy. COVID lockdowns. Just accelerates brain cooking.
In short - AI will make some people exponentially smarter and better equipped, while making the vast majority of people dumber more distracted and less capable of generating income.
Education standards are going off a cliff at the same time as AI models are beating better and better evals.
It follows that:
1] The systems that are the result of large scale, compounded stupidity will be worse than those designed and integrated with AI systems
2] It's impossible to integrate AI systems into existing democratic structures because "votes per intelligence level" contradicts fundamentally with democracies' premises. 1 person 1 vote means that even if you make a tiny % of the population super smart, that won't really matter
3] This means the base case is either far right or far left policies - but it's very hard to predict which one. But neither are good and have terrible historical track records. When you adjust for war / genocide, Statism in the 20th century has a higher per capita death count than the most dangerous places on earth in modernity.
And there's no real reason why Statism can't emerge via democratic processes. It just disbands them after it takes effect.
Capital Flight from the Base Case is the Driver of Crypto Demand
This explains in large part why people are buying Gold, not genomics stocks. And why they're buying Bitcoin / XRP instead of new coins with vastly faster and more complex tech. Despite us being in an AI era, that should ostensibly benefit genome research more than medieval metal demand. Or should benefit "A Global Computing Platform" more than "digital gold".
People see the above, and think "hm I better be ready to get out"
This is in large part why I'm so endlessly bullish crypto. Given the above configuration it's somewhat easy to see how things are going to play out.
Assuming the base case is that:
A. AI Ramps power demand (some estimates are 8% of national electricity). It will be inflationary
B. AI distractions debilitate many people to the same extent that it makes others productive. Thus will not meaningfully accelerate GDP growth. The IMF for example sees 2025 and 2026 being below trend growth years compared to the past 2 decades as do most forecasts.
C. AI investment Is an existential risk -- i.e. China and the US must, at a state level continue subsidizing AI's development or risk losing a great power conflict
D. you're already at high debt to GDP levels given this initial configuration, with the largest generation rapidly retiring (but often not dying) with natural birth rates cliffing -
Then the predictable next actions are:
1. Trying to cut fiscal spending in order to prevent the bond market from caving - assuming you're politically popular. But this will make stocks drop and bond market liquidity evaporate unless you
2. Cut banking regulations. Because it's the only way that you can manufacture liquidity while you're trying to cut spend
3. And just in case this all blows up in your face you legalize crypto/ crypto custody at banks with a view to escape in case it all goes south
This dovetails with the current state of crypto.
Bitcoin search volume is between 1/3 and 1/5th of where it was in 2017 - while meanwhile, Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF is the most successful ETF launch in history. with $57B in assets. This is more than Blackrock's 20+ year treasury ETF, TLT with $53 billion in assets despite being around for a little over a year. The incremental buyers have been Saylor and people who couldn't get their head around crypto custody and wanted the ETF. I.e. Not retail.
Think about that. In 1 year Blackrock clients have hoovered up more Bitcoin ETF than the entire NAV of the long term US treasury ETF. This has been a massively successful "onboarding", but crypto twitter has only played a limited part in it.
And if I'm right about the above, the incremental buyer is also not retail. This is - for example - why XRP has a higher valuation than Solana. De-regulation of banking and institutional adoption is a bigger driver than Pump Fun given the macro context. People care about liquid stores of value -- because crypto is a hedge to the world deteriorating, in its current configuration
Where the Puck is Headed (Derisked Institutional Inflow)
You see the above configuration and what ends up happening looks like
1. AI is real
2. It probably won't bail out the economy in the near term so there could be a full scale collapse. And structurally is ambiguous in the long term. Especially if there are big fiscal cuts. Maybe this is wrong but why risk it
3. If AI disruption results in adverse political outcomes (socialism, fascism, etc) I probably need to get my money out of the country.
4. Crypto is the best way to do so. It didn't used to be because of Operation Chokepoint. in 2023 if I tried to buy $500m of crypto I'd end up on multiple government lists. Now big banks like Citi are getting configured to custody it
5. Now that the POTUS has launched a meme coin and has billions in SOL, + operation chokepoint is removed -- and I won't lose my family office primer brokerage for trading crypto. I can do other things than buying the BTC ETF for the next 4 years
6. Every ultra high net worth individual is in the exact same situation as I am
Previously, the market was front running Trump's announcements about crypto de-regulation. But from a liquidity perspective we were very much still PVP. So there was a big positioning unwind because everyone was long and are now getting chopped to death. The reason why the market *was* PVP was because crypto custody wasn't really configured until this past week.
Meaning that the type of buyer that jammed $57B into Bitcoin ETFs wasn't comfortable or capable putting money into alts. But now that these buyers are here and are increasingly going to be able to buy alt ETFs I anticipate momentum picking back up. A rising tide lifts all boats.
Where does this end up long term?
If human governance structures are structurally impaired by an AI enhanced distraction economy, then the question isn't just how to move assets out of the system. The question is how to use AI to build an effective new system that can permanently license IP and tech back to the impaired, legacy systems
Maybe I'm wrong, and in a year or two we all have robotic maids, nannies and bio research labs are churning out scientific developments with O3 that make us thin and productive. And keep the legacy governments well funded and prosperous. But at some level, if you've read this far you probably know there's a decent chance I'm not wrong. And if there's even a decent chance I'm not wrong, there are going to be $10s of billions of inflows into an asset class that has never seen that type of thing before.
What's the trade.
So yes, I'm still bullish - especially on US based banking focused projects in crypto. The banks see the same thing you and I do and are going to act, aggressively to capitalize on this to serve their top clients. So yes, XRP - but there are a large number of other projects featured at institutional finance events and I'm bullish on all of them because they're at the epicenter of where the inflows are going to hit.
Pricing oracles, Defi, yield products, and yes -- reasonable AI projects. But I think -- on a go forward basis you're going to want to ask, "Could I see a family office buying this coin?" as the primary single question worth asking. Many family offices got rich off gambling so if they want meme coin exposure they're just going to buy BNB, pump fun and Hyperliquid not the underlying 'assets'.
This is not an environment most people are going to thrive in because we haven't seen it before. So I wrote this because I want people to have a better mental model and don't miss out on huge gains.
The doomer family office bid is going to be something to behold.
![goodalexander's tweet photo. The Incremental Buyer (doomer family offices) [long read]
AI and Innovation
the reality is that despite every AI executive saying that AI will result in a health revolution, the Genomics and Biotech ETF is down 34% since 2020. And this is after we got global traction for the largest ever genetic experiment (COVID vaccines).
Jensen goes to Biotech conferences trying to force the matter. Sam Altman and Eric Schmidt frequently talk about synthetic biology development as key "AI use cases"
Bryan Johnson, the largest longevity influencer put $100 million of his money in a longevity focused fund that - if we're to go off his YouTube interview about money - had no returns since 2017. One of its large bets was Gingko Bioworks which is down over 90% since its IPO)
There is not strong evidence, so far, that AI accelerates scientific development in aggregate outside of the development of AI itself. Or at least, generates meaningful financial impact doing so
Consider AI, GDP and immigration. If AI were supercharging productivity - we would have less inflation. Instead, inflation is still above target. GDP is decelerating rather than accelerating despite huge AI Capex. If there were a panacea of wealth from AI - or chatbots could somehow bridge cultural divides - then nations globally wouldn't be increasingly closing their borders. Budgets wouldn't need to be cut - as demand for fixed income in a structurally deflationary environment of abundance would be high.
if AI were an effective teacher at any meaningful scale, then test scores wouldn't be in free fall.
The End of "Blue Sky" Thinking
We're 2+ years in with powerful models available at large scale, globally for free. It's not early days anymore. As of Q4 2024 Nonfarm Business sector productivity is growing 1.2% per year... not nearly enough to justify the "productivity revolution claims" (1950s saw frequent 5-10% jumps).
The structural basis here - that won't change - is the Law of Intelligence Margins. An intelligence margin is that which generates the highest amount of profit per unit of compute. The things with the highest intelligence margins are the legacy distraction economy (Instagram, WeChat, Tik Tok). Robotics and genomics have low intelligence margins.
This would be fine if Tik Tok and Instagram reels didn't cook everyones' brains. But they do. AI makes all the old distraction economy products more addictive. There is a reason that e-commerce and social media companies (BABA and META) are the biggest AI model developers and GPU buyers.
As many managers will also note - AI is also cooking employee brains. Many junior engineers raised in the AI era cannot do things from first principles, and end up building un maintainable code bases. They just click "accept" on every cursor prompt. Some hear "Vibe coding", whereas the wise hear "explosion of technical debt".
This explains - in part - why the big tech companies are implementing hiring freezes despite roaring stock prices. Within 6 months you might as well build an agent instead of a completely AI reliant zoomer/genAI dev.
The Base Case
So - you have this bizarre base case:
1] AI is very much real and probably will eventually accelerate scientific development, including radical longevity ... in the long run
2] On its way there it will probably cook most peoples' brains with AI avatars, customized ads and gaming, pornography, and all supercharged variations of the distraction economy. Or simply by doing their work for them so they're not able to do so themselves
3] Because of #2 AI agents becoming employees (or potentially Robots as well / Waymos etc) -- means that over time, there will be less and less use for people. We already have a mental model for what happens when you have structural unemployment and a good distraction economy. COVID lockdowns. Just accelerates brain cooking.
In short - AI will make some people exponentially smarter and better equipped, while making the vast majority of people dumber more distracted and less capable of generating income.
Education standards are going off a cliff at the same time as AI models are beating better and better evals.
It follows that:
1] The systems that are the result of large scale, compounded stupidity will be worse than those designed and integrated with AI systems
2] It's impossible to integrate AI systems into existing democratic structures because "votes per intelligence level" contradicts fundamentally with democracies' premises. 1 person 1 vote means that even if you make a tiny % of the population super smart, that won't really matter
3] This means the base case is either far right or far left policies - but it's very hard to predict which one. But neither are good and have terrible historical track records. When you adjust for war / genocide, Statism in the 20th century has a higher per capita death count than the most dangerous places on earth in modernity.
And there's no real reason why Statism can't emerge via democratic processes. It just disbands them after it takes effect.
Capital Flight from the Base Case is the Driver of Crypto Demand
This explains in large part why people are buying Gold, not genomics stocks. And why they're buying Bitcoin / XRP instead of new coins with vastly faster and more complex tech. Despite us being in an AI era, that should ostensibly benefit genome research more than medieval metal demand. Or should benefit "A Global Computing Platform" more than "digital gold".
People see the above, and think "hm I better be ready to get out"
This is in large part why I'm so endlessly bullish crypto. Given the above configuration it's somewhat easy to see how things are going to play out.
Assuming the base case is that:
A. AI Ramps power demand (some estimates are 8% of national electricity). It will be inflationary
B. AI distractions debilitate many people to the same extent that it makes others productive. Thus will not meaningfully accelerate GDP growth. The IMF for example sees 2025 and 2026 being below trend growth years compared to the past 2 decades as do most forecasts.
C. AI investment Is an existential risk -- i.e. China and the US must, at a state level continue subsidizing AI's development or risk losing a great power conflict
D. you're already at high debt to GDP levels given this initial configuration, with the largest generation rapidly retiring (but often not dying) with natural birth rates cliffing -
Then the predictable next actions are:
1. Trying to cut fiscal spending in order to prevent the bond market from caving - assuming you're politically popular. But this will make stocks drop and bond market liquidity evaporate unless you
2. Cut banking regulations. Because it's the only way that you can manufacture liquidity while you're trying to cut spend
3. And just in case this all blows up in your face you legalize crypto/ crypto custody at banks with a view to escape in case it all goes south
This dovetails with the current state of crypto.
Bitcoin search volume is between 1/3 and 1/5th of where it was in 2017 - while meanwhile, Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF is the most successful ETF launch in history. with $57B in assets. This is more than Blackrock's 20+ year treasury ETF, TLT with $53 billion in assets despite being around for a little over a year. The incremental buyers have been Saylor and people who couldn't get their head around crypto custody and wanted the ETF. I.e. Not retail.
Think about that. In 1 year Blackrock clients have hoovered up more Bitcoin ETF than the entire NAV of the long term US treasury ETF. This has been a massively successful "onboarding", but crypto twitter has only played a limited part in it.
And if I'm right about the above, the incremental buyer is also not retail. This is - for example - why XRP has a higher valuation than Solana. De-regulation of banking and institutional adoption is a bigger driver than Pump Fun given the macro context. People care about liquid stores of value -- because crypto is a hedge to the world deteriorating, in its current configuration
Where the Puck is Headed (Derisked Institutional Inflow)
You see the above configuration and what ends up happening looks like
1. AI is real
2. It probably won't bail out the economy in the near term so there could be a full scale collapse. And structurally is ambiguous in the long term. Especially if there are big fiscal cuts. Maybe this is wrong but why risk it
3. If AI disruption results in adverse political outcomes (socialism, fascism, etc) I probably need to get my money out of the country.
4. Crypto is the best way to do so. It didn't used to be because of Operation Chokepoint. in 2023 if I tried to buy $500m of crypto I'd end up on multiple government lists. Now big banks like Citi are getting configured to custody it
5. Now that the POTUS has launched a meme coin and has billions in SOL, + operation chokepoint is removed -- and I won't lose my family office primer brokerage for trading crypto. I can do other things than buying the BTC ETF for the next 4 years
6. Every ultra high net worth individual is in the exact same situation as I am
Previously, the market was front running Trump's announcements about crypto de-regulation. But from a liquidity perspective we were very much still PVP. So there was a big positioning unwind because everyone was long and are now getting chopped to death. The reason why the market *was* PVP was because crypto custody wasn't really configured until this past week.
Meaning that the type of buyer that jammed $57B into Bitcoin ETFs wasn't comfortable or capable putting money into alts. But now that these buyers are here and are increasingly going to be able to buy alt ETFs I anticipate momentum picking back up. A rising tide lifts all boats.
Where does this end up long term?
If human governance structures are structurally impaired by an AI enhanced distraction economy, then the question isn't just how to move assets out of the system. The question is how to use AI to build an effective new system that can permanently license IP and tech back to the impaired, legacy systems
Maybe I'm wrong, and in a year or two we all have robotic maids, nannies and bio research labs are churning out scientific developments with O3 that make us thin and productive. And keep the legacy governments well funded and prosperous. But at some level, if you've read this far you probably know there's a decent chance I'm not wrong. And if there's even a decent chance I'm not wrong, there are going to be $10s of billions of inflows into an asset class that has never seen that type of thing before.
What's the trade.
So yes, I'm still bullish - especially on US based banking focused projects in crypto. The banks see the same thing you and I do and are going to act, aggressively to capitalize on this to serve their top clients. So yes, XRP - but there are a large number of other projects featured at institutional finance events and I'm bullish on all of them because they're at the epicenter of where the inflows are going to hit.
Pricing oracles, Defi, yield products, and yes -- reasonable AI projects. But I think -- on a go forward basis you're going to want to ask, "Could I see a family office buying this coin?" as the primary single question worth asking. Many family offices got rich off gambling so if they want meme coin exposure they're just going to buy BNB, pump fun and Hyperliquid not the underlying 'assets'.
This is not an environment most people are going to thrive in because we haven't seen it before. So I wrote this because I want people to have a better mental model and don't miss out on huge gains.
The doomer family office bid is going to be something to behold.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gj0w21pXYAApRp8.jpg)
@trustwalletzh Meet Trust Wallet Team
🆕Wish List Item—a CORLEO-like Robot Horse🐎🤖
MCP=HTTPs of AI
people love MCP and we are excited to add support across our products.
available today in the agents SDK and support for chatgpt desktop app + responses api coming soon!
LFG robotic+Web3 integration
after thorchain and luna, can we please please please
never use endogenous tokens as collateral ever again
if your defi protocol depends on your native token having value, you are actively putting your users at risk
@Lonely_Traderr smart🐳follower
@xwavelabs congrats!
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