jeff

HODLing btc eth etc.

[jeff @0xjeffs]

@0xPickleCati 这篇文章恰是builder们的及时雨：
信仰构建完成，正在学习如何参与到“共识升级”
谢谢猫老师，我们下一个周期再见！

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

https://t.co/2ghAA5aLZB

[jeff @0xjeffs]

@0xPickleCati 耐心等待！

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

Everyone knows crypto is “macro-driven” now.

But most are still confused about how it actually works, which macro variables matter, or why price reacts the way it does.

These are my brief insights towards crypto pricing in this cycle, and what macro factors would be a red flag for crypto in 2026 👇

To understand what’s driving crypto prices today, it helps to start with some history.

The early crypto cycles were driven by a very different kind of demand.

A lot of it came from black market and shadow economy actors, their surrounding ecosystems, and a group of OGs with a strong cypherpunk mindset.

That kind of capital didn’t care much about macro data or interest rates. The key questions back then were very practical:

> Can it be used?
> Can it be transferred?
> Can it move across borders?

Because of that, crypto had very weak correlation with the broader macro environment during those early years.

What’s changed in this cycle is pricing power (who is setting the marginal price) 👇

As regulated access expanded and institutional capital gradually entered the market, crypto started to be treated less like a fringe asset and more like something that fits into standard asset allocation frameworks.

That’s the point where crypto became highly sensitive to macro liquidity conditions, meaning changes in rates, money supply, and global liquidity started to directly affect pricing.

When you see Bitcoin described as liquidity-driven, sensitive to macro conditions, or tied to real interest rates, this is generally what people are pointing to.

So what does that actually mean in practice?

I think it comes down to two main forces.

The first is dollar liquidity conditions 👇

The market is no longer debating whether rate cuts will happen. The real focus is on the pace, slope, and depth of those cuts.

Over longer horizons, crypto has been highly sensitive to changes in money supply and real interest rates.

When liquidity increases but money itself loses purchasing power, capital naturally looks for scarce assets that can’t be printed at will.

This isn’t a hard rule, but it shows up repeatedly across cycles and helps explain why capital flows into crypto in certain phases.

In plain language: when money gets printed faster and holding cash feels worse, people start searching for things with fixed or hard to dilute supply.

Bitcoin is one of those things.

More bluntly, it’s not that people suddenly fall in love with Bitcoin. It’s that confidence in money itself starts to weaken.

The second force runs a bit deeper and has to do with how markets define and allocate to safe haven assets 👇

We’ve seen traditional precious metals like gold and silver get repriced multiple times across different phases.

That reflects persistent demand for protection against sovereign credit risk.

Even now, many investors still think of Bitcoin mainly as a risk on asset.

But as institutional participation increases, more long term capital is starting to treat it as a complementary store of value.

That shift is closely tied to Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and its supply structure, which is difficult to arbitrarily dilute.

Because of this, I don’t see Bitcoin as replacing traditional safe haven assets. I see it increasingly being used as an allocation option outside the sovereign credit system.

When uncertainty rises and stress in the financial system builds, this positioning tends to become more visible.

Looking ahead, there are a few potential macro factors that I’m monitoring closely ⚠️

> Political uncertainty around the US midterm election cycle.

> Valuation and sentiment risks in AI and broader tech.

> Policy uncertainty in Japan that could disrupt yen carry dynamics and tighten global liquidity.

> Ongoing geopolitical tensions.

> Repricing pressure in sovereign debt markets, especially at the long end of the yield curve.

> And slowing global growth with rising downside risks to earnings.

Any one of these on its own is manageable. But if a bunch of them start to overlap, they could quickly become a black swan and present great risk for global markets.

When you layer this macro backdrop on top of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, the setup from late Q3 into year end looks structurally more challenging for crypto.

There’s an argument that the four-year cycle is “dead” because of ETFs, institutional participation, and changing market structure. I don’t fully buy that.

I do think the cycle has weakened. I do think it’s less clean and less dramatic than it used to be.

But I don’t think it has disappeared.

Market structure evolves, but human behavior, liquidity cycles, and positioning habits don’t vanish overnight.

The rhythm may be flatter, but the pattern is still there.

Historically, these late-cycle, high-uncertainty phases haven’t been comfortable.

But they’ve often been the periods where long-term opportunities are created.

In simple terms, if Bitcoin were to see a sharp drawdown around late Q3 2026, it wouldn’t surprise me.

That’s typically the phase where I’d be leaning into (furiously) buying, not stepping away or panic.

I’d view it less as a failure of the thesis and more as part of the cycle.

Historically, those moments tend to offer the most asymmetric long-term opportunities.

[jeff @0xjeffs]

@0xPickleCati @ShiGuangYuYanJi 猫老师 你是不是经常加了自以为的漂亮妹妹 结果发现性别不对😂
我已经不是第一次看见了

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

低谷期该怎么办（纯个人经验干货）

都说“命”是你从出生到现在所有经历与认知累积后的蝴蝶效应，最终在此刻推动你做出某个行为与选择。

既然如此，当你带着这些“认知偏差”去学任何新东西时，都会带着个滤镜。

而有滤镜就必有盲区。
有些盲区别人一眼就能看出来，但对你来说却像不存在一样。

可把盲区交给别人评判有时反而会害了你。

所以你只能靠自己孵化出一个“第三视角”、一个能跳出来、一个能站在更高维度审视现在的你，这个“新”的你。

这个你能给出你从未想到的答案。

而这，就是为什么有些人所谓“悟性强”，而另一些人明明很努力，却一辈子在原地打转。

但这种“第三视角”，不是靠努力学习或强逼自己成长就能出现的。

它被孵化出来的环境条件往往只有一个：你真在低谷期的时候。

> 真正的低谷期会让你的ego（自我）完全碎掉。

> 经历过的都懂，那时候别人说什么你都能真听进去。

> 而且你几乎可以随时进入深度冥想状态。

注意，是深度。

不是平常那些浅浅的、偶尔的、自我感动式冥想。

过得好的时候，你根本进不了那么深（除非你已经专门训练了很久）。

“没有 ego 的你”，加上“随时深度冥想”，加上“彻底被逼到墙角的环境”，完全是孕育出“另一个你”的最佳土壤。

你已经痛到这个份上了，光脚的不怕穿鞋的，还有什么好怕的？

都这样了，还怕面对羞耻？还怕面对曾经的恐惧？

> 这时候先把你一生中最羞耻、最害怕的三十件事写下来，然后一条条去接受它。

> 去搜“12 steps of AA”，把这12步直接开始做了，把“alcohol”替换成“my emotions/my life/my well-being”。你去搜了就知道我在讲啥了，真想变好就别天天抱怨，直接行动起来。

> 我专门写过个推关于为什么AA的12步不仅仅适合戒酒，更适合apply到你人生低谷期+交易相关挫折/上瘾/冲动。我亲身试过，真有用！一般人做到前三步就差不多了，甚至不用完成12步。

平常你做不到，因为你会拼命躲避，但低谷期的你反而能轻易做到。

这就是所谓的环境优势，得利用这个环境。

很多人说：“我低谷期连起床力气都没有，我还能学什么、进步什么？”

这句话本身就跑偏了，说明你在逆着环境去发力。

> 低谷期不是没有能量，你只是没有正能量。

> 你现在拥有的是极深、极厚、极锋利的负能量。

> 你也许恨自己、责怪自己、怀疑人生。

> 那也是力量，甚至是超级强的那种。

你要顺着它，把你的 ego 全面摧毁，把你的人生一段段回放，从头到尾审视你自己！

你不需要“学习”任何新东西，你的记忆就是你最低成本、最高价值的教材。

你会突然拥有一种“上帝视角”去看你的过去，而这就是你突破的开始了。

> 别再逼自己低谷期也要爆发、要产出、要表现、要赢别人。

> 你唯一需要做的，就是好好看看你自己。

反正你都已经这么难受了，还怕面对自己吗？还怕羞耻吗？还怕痛？

痛都痛成这样了，也不过是顺势拆掉旧的你，好让新的你能出生。

当然，并不是所有低谷都能用这种方式。

还有一种低谷是“麻木”。这种比痛苦更难，因为痛苦至少还有能量，哪怕是负的。这种情况需要的是重新刺激身体与痛觉的感受。

但那又是另一个完全不同的课题了。

[jeff @0xjeffs]

@0xPickleCati YES if satan knows how to be a good barista hahaha

[jeff @0xjeffs]

@0xPickleCati 跟紧猫老师脚步

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

现在往74k看了，再跌破咱就等明年3-4w BTC干啦。

昨天虽已按头喊止盈，但我知道有人没跟上。

如果你现在怀疑人生，我想认真告诉你：
哪怕你暂时没在币圈赚到钱，你也已经为未来的财富交足了学费做好了准备。

因为你同时还成为了👇

美联储头号侦探、宏观经济研究员、Trump分析师、国际政治半吊子教授、一级情报捕捉员、玄学长老、人类行为观察学PHD、心理学专家、反诈反PUA大使。

哪怕有天换行业，你也已比其他新进这行业的99%人强。

条条大路通罗马，别人靠双脚前进，反而你已有了你的马，而它就会带你去到好的路💚

[jeff @0xjeffs]

THE TEA

[紀春生 @ji_chunsheng]

有人把爱泼斯坦的邮件做成了Gmail的形式，可以以爱泼斯坦的账号身份登录直接阅读。😬

网址：https://t.co/tWRX11MoKy

[jeff @0xjeffs]

@wujinxiaBTC nbnb 你这是半年减脂的效果图吗？

[jeff @0xjeffs]

@0xPickleCati 感谢猫老师及时通知策略调整

[jeff @0xjeffs]

@0xPickleCati @StewartEdward07 diamond hand现货doge @0.4
再给我一次机会 我是不会再hodl meme

[jeff @0xjeffs]

The narrative hasn’t turned into reality yet. Now most people only care about the cycle peak and how TradFi and regulators are getting involved. But none of that reflects any real progress toward ETH’s mission.

[Santiago R Santos @santiagoroel]

Crypto got everything it wanted - ETFs, adoption, legitimacy - and prices are still down.
We valued casino flow like recurring software revenue.
“Dear LPs, we outperformed ETH… and still lost 80% of the fund.”

Full post:
https://t.co/7sLvK4uHmQ

[jeff @0xjeffs]

@BillAckman I feel like it’s way more than two cents here.

[jeff @0xjeffs]

六旬老登也玩起了“对年轻一代的有些话想说”

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

I hear from many young men that they find it difficult to meet young women in a public setting. In other words, the online culture has destroyed the ability to spontaneously meet strangers. As such, I thought I would share a few words that I used in my youth to meet someone that I found compelling.

I would ask: “May I meet you?” before engaging further in a conversation. I almost never got a No.

It inevitably enabled the opportunity for a further conversation. I met a lot of really interesting people this way.

I think the combination of proper grammar and politeness was the key to its effectiveness. You might give it a try.

And yes, I think it should also work for women seeking men as well as same sex interactions.

Just two cents from an older happily married guy concerned about our next generation’s happiness and population replacement rates.

[jeff @0xjeffs]

@0xPickleCati 隔离噪音

[jeff @0xjeffs]

@0xPickleCati 哲学猫
爱你所爱