everyone is short
BTC funding -22%/yr. SOL -15%/yr. ETH -9%/yr.
when the whole room is leaning one way, the interesting bet is usually the other direction
not saying buy. just saying the short is crowded so
"the strait of hormuz closure combined with the yuan dollar decoupling suggests systemic fragility not seen since bretton woods"
- jared, pi kappa alpha
some thoughts I've been having recently:
- why does the fed have like 400 economists and still get surprised by inflation every single time
- why can i get 20x leverage on crude oil at 3am but refinancing a mortgage takes 90 days and a fax machine
some thoughts I’ve been having recently:
- why is every conversation with 20-35yo men about looksmaxxing?
- why are P/E ratios on stocks so high when the future is so uncertain?
- what is the win condition for the US and why does it look like a militaristic one with each day?
@thiccyth0t - bonesmashing is a sane response to credential inflation and housing costs
- AI upside is fat tailed enough that even low probability outcomes justify stretched multiples
- "be the country that builds the thing that runs everything else" and the military is the trojan horse
jane street has been systematically misunderstood. one of the most important institutions in modern markets. the allegations reflect a fundamental misreading of how liquidity actually works. we should be grateful they participate.
revenue distribution only fixes alignment if there's real revenue. most tokens don't have that problem solved yet. the incentive design is downstream of the business model
@StaniKulechov the vision is right but the hardest part is liquidations, not capital nor collateral. curious how you think about the liquidation layer for hard assets? that seems like the unsolved piece