Levko

offline at low gwei / nfa

[Levko @0xlevko]

how is @CantonNetwork revenue calculated?

defillama counts Fees = Revenue

as a result, Canton shows $2–3M in daily revenue despite having only around $300k in TVL

but, incentives exceed $3M per day to produce such revenue.

so while reported revenue looks massive, the network may actually distribute more value than it collects in fees

[Levko @0xlevko]

rarely do people remember that the first prediction market and the first place for trading tokenized stocks was FTX.

in 2020 users could bet on election outcomes by going long or short prediction contracts based on their views.

tokenized stocks such as Amazon, Tesla, and Netflix were listed on both spot and futures markets.

ftx AI portfolio would be extremely successful today, given its early investment in @AnthropicAI.

@SBF_FTX may have been ahead of the time on several ideas.

[Levko @0xlevko]

that is a good point, but only if we ignore market risk

index funds have to meet redemptions on red days

hope, the chart does not end up looking like strk

https://t.co/ZRrNF5TNa2

[Yu Hu 🌊 @Punk9277]

seen some takes on "i'd buy SPCX in 3 months at a lower price"

sure - but that's on a fundamentally different thesis

the thesis at open should be entirely based on flow - val doesn't matter

because you have a stock that has
- 4.2% float
- o/w only 20% to retail -> this means 0.8% possible sell pressure (rest to long-only)
- o/w >50% won't sell given flipping policy / natural hodler -> 0.4% possible sell pressure

while index funds are expected to buy 20bn / 1%

1% >> 0.4%

it's like elon launches at coin with 99.6% control while a DAT is coming in 2 weeks. insanity

[Levko @0xlevko]

the more they buy, the more uncertainty is created.

guys like Saylor or Tom Lee are becoming a pain in the neck for the market.

if the market goes down, we are afraid they will get liquidated.

if the market goes up, we are worried that they may start selling.

yes, they do not face instant margin calls, so short-term volatility is not the issue.

but a one-asset strategy pursued by massive players is one of the biggest concentration risks, especially in relatively illiquid markets.

https://t.co/Na5CBmAMx9

[Andrei Grachev 🦅🟠 $FF @ag_dwf]

BitMine and Strategy have all the chances to create the largest market crash in the history of crypto
Fingers crossed that it won’t happen, but if it did, what’s your strategy for BTC crash to 10-20k$?

[Levko @0xlevko]

the strong get stronger, the weak get weaker

exchange coins are the only segment that has outperformed ETH

most altcoins underperformed ETH by -x2/3 on an annual basis, exchange tokens experienced only modest declines

ETH: -34,8%
BNB: -8,6%
OKB: +38,1%
WBT: +41,5%
MNT: -17,5%

[Levko @0xlevko]

@bigironchris @DefiIgnas @dcfgod 11 red monthly candles in a row

crazy

[Levko @0xlevko]

ethereum ecosystem is the biggest source of FUD

1. 2021-2026 no growth
2. L2 narrative failed
3. BitMine Ethereum Treasury down $9B
4. ETH is no longer among the top 100 global assets
5. Recent security incidents and hacks
6. Core developers are leaving
7. Ethereum Foundation keeps doing "bullish"
8. David Hoffman sold ETH
9. ETF outflows
10. ETH/BTC at cycle lows
11. ICO wallets continue to sell
12. VC inflows into the ecosystem are at cycle lows
13. Sentiment at all-time lows
14. DeFi yields are low while risks high

[Levko @0xlevko]

I have serious doubts about the accuracy of the liquidation data

from one side, exchanges have an incentive to under report real picture, but why are the numbers so fat on a dead market

5% move consistently prints $1B in liquidations. seems like self or wash-liquidations for some purposes

[Levko @0xlevko]

pure dollar yield in defi is dead. t-bills have the same rate, so risk premium is negligible.

defi is not yield product, it's infrastructure for what tradfi can't do

measure it as a tradefi yield competitor and it fails

https://t.co/QciFjDByDV

[Manuel Aráoz @maraoz]

PSA: I now consider *all* of DeFi unsafe.

Coding agents are superhuman at finding vulnerabilities, and smart contract security is too asymmetric: defenders need to fix every bug while attackers need just one exploit to steal funds.

[Levko @0xlevko]

not your KEYS not your COINS does NOT work anymore

defi attracted users because it eliminated the middleman risk. no kyc, no aml, nobody freezing your account etc

but you actually didn't remove third-party risk. you just reassigned trust factor. now you opt for trusting a bridge code, a handful of oracles and cross-chain verifier

simply from practical experience even after major CEX hacks or whatever users got their money back. yes, it may not have been entirely fair with Mt.Gox or FTX but the fact is that users GOT smth back

a major exchange has a legal entity, a balance sheet, shareholders, and an address where the lawsuit lands while smart contract has nothing to return.

[Levko @0xlevko]

@ag_dwf but what kind of event could potentially "include" altcoins ?

[Levko @0xlevko]

UPDATE: over $2.8M has now been claimed through the fee refund program by @opensea

the refund window closes in 11 days.

https://t.co/Yp2dnzdZK1

[Levko @0xlevko]

20,728 participants claimed @opensea refunds
with total distributions exceeding $2.31M

overall market conditions weakened, so the opportunity cost of capital increased, particularly for stables

as a result, a growing number of users are opting to recover fees and reallocate capital into the market

with @Polymarket giving only 56% of $SEA above $300M mcap users assume potential gains from a market recovery may outweigh the expected value of the $SEA allocation

[Levko @0xlevko]

@HollanderAdam what did u build ?

[Levko @0xlevko]

20,728 participants claimed @opensea refunds
with total distributions exceeding $2.31M

overall market conditions weakened, so the opportunity cost of capital increased, particularly for stables

as a result, a growing number of users are opting to recover fees and reallocate capital into the market

with @Polymarket giving only 56% of $SEA above $300M mcap users assume potential gains from a market recovery may outweigh the expected value of the $SEA allocation

[Levko @0xlevko]

$SEA update. refund

@opensea has formalized an optional fee refund mechanism for participants in the rewards program.

• refunds apply only to waves 3-6 (waves 1-2 are not eligible)
• refund window: april 2 - april 22 (1:30pm)
• claiming a refund = removes Treasures from those waves

the tge is postponed, not canceled. all remaining treasures will be meaningfully considered by the @openseafdn at $SEA launch

[Levko @0xlevko]

wave 6. final wave before $SEA token launch

after the tge postponement, @dfinzer shared updates on reward waves.

users will have the option to refund fees from waves 3-6, but the associated Treasures will be removed.

sooner or later the market will recover. make hay while the sun shines.

[Levko @0xlevko]

pain by memeland +255% in a week

not the best time for the market especially for memes. liquidity is thin and most participants are focused on risk management and preservation rether then gambling

[Levko @0xlevko]

holding no selling. where to put comma?

pattern is consistent:

• nft prices tend to appreciate ahead of token announcements
• token allocations are smaller then loss from nft price drop
• both the nft and token experience sell pressure

doplicator allocation limited to 9,000 $DOOD ($80), while the nft traded around 0.2 ETH pre-announcement.

post-drop, the nft declined to 0.05 ETH

one mad lads gets 1,000 $BP ($300) allocation, while the nft declined from 50 SOL to 11 SOL

as a result, in many cases, exiting the nft position after the announcement has proven more effective than holding through the tge

[Levko @0xlevko]

@DWFLabs revenue is sanity

[Levko @0xlevko]

like with perps, one of the most efficient strategies is providing liquidity minimizing directional exposure.

on @Polymarket, you get rewarded for being useful liquidity. if your orders are filled, you earn rebates from taker fees.

imo, how to maximize capital efficiency:
1. focus on 2–3 undercrowded markets (lower competition)
2. place tight YES + NO orders around fair value
3. moderate sizing
4. rebalance as the mid price shifts
5. avoid highly trending markets