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Technically yes there's a lot of previous top signals showing up here lol
but imo the focus is quite refined this time
- trend
- market flows
so uptrends with spot driven flows
= ride the wave & demand
yes there will be volatility & pullbacks on occasion (during periods of brief supply & exhaustion)
but continuation of the current market till proven otherwise
A tip for my fellow traders spending these next 24h in front of their screen: Remember how these events play out from a liquidity rotation perspective-
Once the smart money get a strong read on the binary outcome, the most LIQUID things get hit first, even if they arent the most strongly correlated.
In this election it will be $BTC first. Because if you want to put on a huge SHARP position long-Trump or short-Kamala thats the best place to do it in.
However- $BTC is actually not even that vulnerable to the election, neither are US Equities. So there will be a HUGE Catchup trade available with a timely rotation to other coins...
The +/- % spread from the two outcomes from BTC will be ~12%. Smth like 74k trump, 65k Harris.
But for $ETH it will be ~20%. $2300 Harris, $2800 Trump. Once the BTC move happens ill be looking to trade the $ETH catchup move, especially hard if Trump wins. This is the best risk/reward on election day I see.
If Trump loses OTOH, the high beta free money once $BTC falls is shorting $DOGE. No Department of Government Efficiency means it could become a single-digit (cent) shitcoin. If Trump wins it will have a beta of course and I can see it flying through $0.20+, but it will have a sharp reversion once it runs too far. Time it at your own risk that way.
Exciting day ahead, good luck timing your rotations! And keep some dry powder in advance so you have some flexibility.
Good luck Dragons, keep hydrated.
Considering just putting everything I have into ETH.E at this point.
If this discount maintains and you get mid $2k's again this summer it's prob the greatest trade ever offered to mankind
Today, I stepped down as CEO of Binance. Admittedly, it was not easy to let go emotionally. But I know it is the right thing to do. I made mistakes, and I must take responsibility. This is best for our community, for Binance, and for myself.
Binance is no longer a baby. It is time for me to let it walk and run. I know Binance will continue to grow and excel with the deep bench it has.
I’m pleased to announce that @_RichardTeng, our now former Global Head of Regional Markets, has been named the new CEO of Binance today.
Richard is a highly qualified leader and, with over three decades of financial services and regulatory experience, he will navigate the company through its next period of growth. He will ensure Binance delivers on our next phase of security, transparency, compliance, and growth.
Prior to joining Binance, Richard was CEO of the Financial Services Regulatory Authority at Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM); Chief Regulatory Officer of the Singapore Exchange (SGX); and Director of Corporate Finance in the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
With Richard and the entire team, I’m confident that the best days for @Binance and the crypto industry lay ahead.
As a shareholder and former CEO with historical knowledge of our company, I will remain available to the team to consult as needed, consistent with the framework set out in our U.S. agency resolutions.
What’s next for me?
I will take a break first. I have not had a single day of real (phone off) break for the last 6 and half years.
After that, my current thinking is I will probably do some passive investing, being a minority token/shareholder in startups in areas of blockchain/Web3/DeFi, AI and biotech. I am happy that I will finally have more time to spend looking at DeFi.
I can’t see myself being a CEO driving a startup again. I am content being an one-shot (lucky) entrepreneur. Should there be listeners, I may be open to being a coach/mentor to a small number of upcoming entrepreneurs, privately. If for nothing else, I can at least tell them what not to do.
On that note, I am proud to point out that in our resolutions with the U.S. agencies they:
- do not allege that Binance misappropriated any user funds, and
- do not allege that Binance engaged in any market manipulation.
Funds are SAFU!
With that, I look forward to seeing the new leadership take the reins. Please join me in congratulating Richard on his well-deserved promotion.
Onwards!
CZ
Spotting local tops honestly isn't as difficult as most people think it is. Just look for big OI wipes on high volume.
Guessing the end of a trend is a different story.
ETH/BTC:
Looking for this in the coming months. Once we break daily structure to the upside, the reversal will be biblical. Expect a 30-40% move in no time.
Typically Jan is extremely bullish for ETH/BTC after languishing in the fall. This time wont be different.
I got access to gpt-4 vision this morning.
Ran a few specific trading examples and analyzed different charts.
and some of the results are just really good! 😃
1/ pattern recognition
Me thinks the moment BTC goes up significantly and alts start liquidating to the downside is the moment you'll get a proper big rally that'll set the major overarching trend for at least a year or two
Until that happens it's chop time
But what do I know, I'm just a duck
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Started trading lower time frames again recently after a long break.
Immediate observations:
--Uncomfortable being offside
--Poor ability to hold good entries even to conservative targets
--Managing trades unnecessarily (related to the previous point, usually in the form of taking profit early/without letting the original idea play out)
Solutions:
--Keep trading frequency on the higher end to regain trading 'muscle memory' and sync with the market
--Become even pickier with entries so that being offside has a higher probability of being signal as opposed to noise
--Only manage trades if a clear 'signal' emerges
General remarks:
--When trading lower time frame stuff, you're usually trading smaller rotations. That means less room for error if the payoff is going to be worth it i.e. more precise entries, tighter invalidations, and more conservative targets.
--Trade management is still important but should be used much more sparingly than with higher time frame swing trades or larger rotations generally. With lower time frame stuff, there simply isn't a lot of 'space' between your entry, stop, and target - so there is a higher chance that what happens in between is noise as opposed to signal. I generally lean towards letting the trade 'play out' vs intervening in a very narrow range.
--You can still use higher time frame levels for lower time frame trading. Most of my execution is on the M5 but often the levels are M15/H1/H4 and even D1. The main difference is given I'm executing on the M5, I like to buy below support/above resistance on the anticipation that I'm buying the lower wick of the higher time frame support/selling the upper wick of the high time frame resistance.
--R:R is a bit of a meme in this context. Especially when you consider the higher trade frequency and lower risk per trade. As long as there's at least 1R available, I'm punting. Higher probability + higher frequency compensate for the lower R:R.
Dunno if this is useful at all and it's not some glorious PnL card, just thought I'd share some of my ongoing experience as I get back into the nitty-gritty of things.
People always ask me how to learn to trade
My best attempt to answer that question is
1) Consume some free content so you understand the basics (@cryptocred has the best IMO)
2) Open an account
3) Deposit small
4) Trade
5) Autistically look at the orderbook/chart
6) Figure out what works for you and what doesn't
7) Try out as much as you can, don't get stuck on some strategy someone sold you as profitable, try everything
8) Listen to free advice from active traders (there are millions of podcasts with some of the best traders out there)
9) Apply whatever makes sense, discard the rest, not everyone trades the same way and you still have to find your strengths and weaknesses
10) Don't waste your money paying anyone - the market will teach you a million times more than any person could
11) Find out what you excel at and which areas you suck in (something that helps you do that is journaling)
12) Autistically focus on what you're good at, fuck the shit that you're not good at, you're on a quest to find one poker hand that you're comfortable playing, everything else doesn't matter (for now)
13) Whenever you see some new information that isn't full-blown retarded - be curious, learn, try to apply
14) Once you've found a niche/edge/setup that consistently works for you, deposit more
15) Maybe profit, maybe not, trading isn't for everyone and the vast majority of people just end up losing anyway
16) If it works don't get ahead of yourself, you're still a retard you just found temporary edge that may or may not last forever
17) Assume you're a retard that's gonna give back everything if you don't put checks and balances in place to prevent that
18) Actually put checks and balances in place because your assumption is correct
19) Constantly find new edges, evolve and learn otherwise you'll eventually bleed out your profits again
20) Maybe keep profits maybe not, even at this point most people give back everything and resort to being an influencer on Twitter shilling low caps, ref links, paid groups, or whatever else you can shill
Hope that helps