SILK DREAD | Broker Bison

Co-Founder @CatelaeOfficial and @BrokerBisonsNFT | Industrial Engineer | 🚀 @Ponchiqs | Synth Enthusiast | Crypto Class of 2016 | aka other names 🌍👽🛸

[SILK DREAD | Broker Bison @0xpointless_eth]

@azaztrader01

[SILK DREAD | Broker Bison @0xpointless_eth]

Did I just guessed it? 😅

[SILK DREAD | Broker Bison @0xpointless_eth]

Maybe quick 30k, then 17k, 22k, 14k, 17k, 12k, 14k, 9k, 22k, 20k, 30k, 50k, 40k, 70k, 60k, 90k, 80k, 120k, then everything bubble and final salvation for humanity

[Justin Drake @drakefjustin]

Today is a monumentous day for quantum computing and cryptography. Two breakthrough papers just landed (links in next tweet). Both papers improve Shor's algorithm, infamous for cracking RSA and elliptic curve cryptography. The two results compound, optimising separate layers of the quantum stack. The results are shocking. I expect a narrative shift and a further R&D boost toward post-quantum cryptography.

The first paper is by Google Quantum AI. They tackle the (logical) Shor algorithm, tailoring it to crack Bitcoin and Ethereum signatures. The algorithm runs on ~1K logical qubits for the 256-bit elliptic curve secp256k1. Due to the low circuit depth, a fast superconducting computer would recover private keys in minutes. I'm grateful to have joined as a late paper co-author, in large part for the chance to interact with experts and the alpha gleaned from internal discussions.

The second paper is by a stealthy startup called Oratomic, with ex-Google and prominent Caltech faculty. Their starting point is Google's improvements to the logical quantum circuit. They then apply improvements at the physical layer, with tricks specific to neutral atom quantum computers. The result estimates that 26,000 atomic qubits are sufficient to break 256-bit elliptic curve signatures. This would be roughly a 40x improvement in physical qubit count over previous state-of-the-art. On the flip side, a single Shor run would take ~10 days due to the relatively slow speed of neutral atoms.

Below are my key takeaways. As a disclaimer, I am not a quantum expert. Time is needed for the results to be properly vetted. Based on my interactions with the team, I have faith the Google Quantum AI results are conservative. The Oratomic paper is much harder for me to assess, especially because of the use of more exotic qLDPC codes. I will take it with a grain of salt until the dust settles.

→ q-day: My confidence in q-day by 2032 has shot up significantly. IMO there's at least a 10% chance that by 2032 a quantum computer recovers a secp256k1 ECDSA private key from an exposed public key. While a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) before 2030 still feels unlikely, now is undoubtedly the time to start preparing.
→ censorship: The Google paper uses a zero-knowledge (ZK) proof to demonstrate the algorithm's existence without leaking actual optimisations. From now on, assume state-of-the-art algorithms will be censored. There may be self-censorship for moral or commercial reasons, or because of government pressure. A blackout in academic publications would be a tell-tale sign.
→ cracking time: A superconducting quantum computer, the type Google is building, could crack keys in minutes. This is because the optimised quantum circuit is just 100M Toffoli gates, which is surprisingly shallow. (Toffoli gates are hard because they require production of so-called "magic states".) Toffoli gates would consume ~10 microseconds on a superconducting platform, totalling ~1,000 sec of Shor runtime.
→ latency optimisations: Two latency optimisations bring key cracking time to single-digit minutes. The first parallelises computation across quantum devices. The second involves feeding the pubkey to the quantum computer mid-flight, after a generic setup phase.
→ fast- and slow-clock: At first approximation there are two families of quantum computers. The fast-clock flavour, which includes superconducting and photonic architectures, runs at roughly 100 kHz. The slow-clock flavour, which includes trapped ion and neutral atom architectures, runs roughly 1,000x slower (~100 Hz, or ~1 week to crack a single key).
→ qubit count: The size-optimised variant of the algorithm runs on 1,200 logical qubits. On a superconducting computer with surface code error correction that's roughly 500K physical qubits, a 400:1 physical-to-logical ratio. The surface code is conservative, assuming only four-way nearest-neighbour grid connectivity. It was demonstrated last year by Google on a real quantum computer.
→ future gains: Low-hanging fruit is still being picked, with at least one of the Google optimisations resulting from a surprisingly simple observation. Interestingly, AI was not (yet!) tasked to find optimisations. This was also the first time authors such as Craig Gidney attacked elliptic curves (as opposed to RSA). Shor logical qubit count could plausibly go under 1K soonish.
→ error correction: The physical-to-logical ratio for superconducting computers could go under 100:1. For superconducting computers that would be mean ~100K physical qubits for a CRQC, two orders of magnitude away from state of the art. Neutral atoms quantum computers are amenable to error correcting codes other than the surface code. While much slower to run, they can bring down the physical to logical qubit ratio closer to 10:1.
→ Bitcoin PoW: Commercially-viable Bitcoin PoW via Grover's algorithm is not happening any time soon. We're talking decades, possibly centuries away. This observation should help focus the discussion on ECDSA and Schnorr. (Side note: as unofficial Bitcoin security researcher, I still believe Bitcoin PoW is cooked due to the dwindling security budget.)
→ team quality: The folks at Google Quantum AI are the real deal. Craig Gidney (@CraigGidney) is arguably the world's top quantum circuit optimisooor. Just last year he squeezed 10x out of Shor for RSA, bringing the physical qubit count down from 10M to 1M. Special thanks to the Google team for patiently answering all my newb questions with detailed, fact-based answers. I was expecting some hype, but found none.

[NVIDIA AI Developer @NVIDIAAIDev]

Go from "hello world" to "hello claw!" 🦞

We're hosting a Build-A-Claw extravaganza in the #NVIDIAGTC Park Mon-Thur where you can BYOD or buy a DGX Spark on-site and our NVIDIA experts will help you install @OpenClaw.

See you there! 🙌

Full details 👉 https://t.co/hbtboQ5RYp

[SILK DREAD | Broker Bison @0xpointless_eth]

Note to self: I should revisit this and try to explore and guess more on the everything bubble part because there might be a final exit before the bridge

[SILK DREAD | Broker Bison @0xpointless_eth]

Charts never lie but I hope I am wrong on everything bubble part 😄

[SILK DREAD | Broker Bison @0xpointless_eth]

“Everything looks like a nail when you only have a hammer.” is the quote of my day 😃

[ETHDenver 🏔🦬🦄 @EthereumDenver]

ETHDenver 2026 applications are officially open!

By applying to participate, you’ll join @SporkDAO, the community that powers the world’s largest BUIDL festival, and unlock your FREE Member Ticket to this year’s event.

This year’s theme, Captain Ethereum and the Rise of New BUIDL City, marks a major evolution for ETHDenver 🧵

[Haseeb ＞|＜ @hosseeb]

Every cycle, founders chase the fireball of hot money.

Last cycle, it meant launching a token. Crypto capital markets were white hot.

This cycle, it’s bringing your token to the stock market (a la treasury companies).

But hot money never stays put, which is why treasury companies will not be the final meta. But I'd guess 1-2 years of this until the heat dies down.

[toffee @toffee248]

You can earn Virgen Points by staking $ARBUS now!

[SILK DREAD | Broker Bison @0xpointless_eth]

What a launch! 🚀 @arbusai @virtuals_io $ARBUS 👏 📈

[SILK DREAD | Broker Bison @0xpointless_eth]

Looking forward to @arbusai launch on @virtuals_io tomorrow 🤙 $ARBUS 🚀 the product speaks for itself.

📈 Virtual chart looks promising as well..

[Arbus @arbusai]

Countdown starts for the $ARBUS relaunch on @virtuals_io Genesis!

🕒 Start: May 17, 11:00 AM UTC

Virgens, get your points ready. This will be one to remember! 🔥

🔗 https://t.co/KslS375H1d

[SILK DREAD | Broker Bison @0xpointless_eth]

@Immutable Les go :D

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Bank of America to launch USD-pegged crypto stablecoin if lawmakers pass legislation, CEO says.

"It's pretty clear there's going to be a stablecoin, which is going to be a fully dollar-backed... it's no different than a bank account."

[Ponchiqs @ponchiqs]

🔥 $PONCH is now live on @solana! 🔥

$PONCH is now multichain—you can trade it on Solana with ease. #SOL

Ponch live on Raydium

CA: PNCHtJUtaMhgwke4LXExrWXRJDpq51b2tRPdY6DWNLv

[SILK DREAD | Broker Bison @0xpointless_eth]

Maybe quick 30k, then 17k, 22k, 14k, 17k, 12k, 14k, 9k, 22k, 20k, 30k, 50k, 40k, 70k, 60k, 90k, 80k, 120k, then everything bubble and final salvation for humanity

[SILK DREAD | Broker Bison @0xpointless_eth]

@JetkinKrypto @KatzziNFT @ekayakiii @rousseau_iam @liberlitas41 @hypermaddd @sadizmed @hitasyurek

[SILK DREAD | Broker Bison @0xpointless_eth]

@arbusai @Chiliz Great partnership 💪

[KuCoin @kucoincom]

💥World Premiere💥

📢 New Listing

@ponchiqs $PONCH Gets Listed on #KuCoin!

💎Pair: PONCH/USDT
💎Deposit: now open (network: TON-Jetton)
💎Trading: 14:00 on December 6, 2024 (UTC)