10xCycleTrader-Etoro

Former Popular Investor on Etoro. Trading Indices, FX and Commodities. "Trendlines are for breaking".

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$BTC Month 35 high.... Month 47 low (again) ?

I foresee a shorter cycle into 2026 Q2

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

Who knows their $BTC history?

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$BTC is very close (in time) to printing another longer Daily Cycle. IMVHO

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$BTC Month 35 high.... Month 47 low (again) ?

I foresee a shorter cycle into 2026 Q2

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

All monthly "short term" price & time targets met. Monthly medium term targets point higher, I do however foresee a minor reset of sentiment first.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

Monthly $GOLD chart featuring the nominal "8 Year Cycle" in yellow and "16 Year Cycle" in purple.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

Subject to confirmation, $COIN is on day 7 on a new Daily Cycle (week 1 of a new weekly cycle). Step 1 being a close back above the daily 10MA having retraced heavily on (Calendar) day 5.

I'm still not discounting the possibility that this is day 75 of an extended daily cycle given $BTC has so far printed a low on day 65 (August 26th) at $108,670.00.

It's Important to note that $BTC is about to close month 33 within its 4 year cycle. The main warning bell the cycle has topped would be a monthly close below monthly 10MA at $ 99,250.00 (as of today). Currently not my base case.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

Having undercut the August 6th low at $293.31, will todays low on day 68 at $291.46 hold as a Daily Cycle low or will price require a little more time to gain a stronger footing?

On week 19, the timing appears to track for a weekly low to be printed sooner rather than later.

NFA, DYOR.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

Having undercut the August 6th low at $293.31, will todays low on day 68 at $291.46 hold as a Daily Cycle low or will price require a little more time to gain a stronger footing?

On week 19, the timing appears to track for a weekly low to be printed sooner rather than later.

NFA, DYOR.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$COIN, what a difference a week makes....

Clearly declining into its 2nd Daily Cycle Low.
Just came within a few points of the 50% retracement of the 14 week advance ($293.61) and 70% of the 2nd Daily Cycle.

Still early for a DCL but a number of bounces and undercuts would help to prevent price falling off a cliff while using up the remaining time.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

This is so true it's almost not funny 🙃

[Kuppy @hkuppy]

Typical Day as a Hedge Fund PM

6:00 - Wake up, check what Trump tariffed overnight. Cambodia up +200%, Paraguay -3% (they said thanks).

6:05 - Brew some coffee.

6:10 - Trump tweets that the laws are rigged, since he cannot tariff Arizona. Mentally scroll the portfolio for exposure…

6:15 - Check what happened in Asia and Europe.

6:22 - Trump announces that hot dogs will join the food pyramid. Bans hot dog exports. Fortunately our book dodged that one.

6:30 - Drink some coffee, talk to wife, pray Trump will spend the morning golfing so I can do some actual work….

6:31 - Trump announces that oil at $65 is too high. Threatens anyone who isn’t producing more oil.

6:32 - Top 5 position announces earnings, want to join the earnings call at 7am, but Trump just scheduled a press conference then, and he’s looking unpredictable.

7:02 - Trump announces that Japan can now export golf balls tariff-free, in honor of Abe letting him cheat at golf. Join the earnings call instead.

7:06 - Futures plunge 65 handles in a single tick, frantically leave the earnings call and go back to whatever Trump is still yapping about in his press conference.

7:10 - Scroll through premarket quotes. $NVDA and $PLTR are both up 5% b/c it’s a day ending in ‘Y’ but SPZ are now down 80 handles.

7:15 - Trump changed his mind and SPZ are now up 25 handles as everyone rushes to cover their short. (I re-join the earnings call)

7:30 - Some broker I’ve never heard of just downgraded a top 5 position and it’s down 15% on 300 shares traded. I’m pretty confident it will close around there too. (I crack open a beer as I skim his downgrade report, realizing that nothing productive will happen today…😩😩)

8:00 - An LP calls to remind me of some
ShitCoin he recommended that’s now up 1800% since he recommended it.

8:09 - 10-yr bonds gap down 17 bps, but all I can find is a tweet from Bessent about how great Main Street is doing.

8:15 - Some sell side asshole cold-calls me to see if I want a copy of his upgrade report on the AI sector. Tells me that “it’s going to be big and you don’t want to miss it.”

8:20 - Check my email, do 10 minutes of actual work.

8:30 - Trump threatens Brazil, I realize our BZ exposure is gonna get thumped on the open. (Crack open a 2nd beer)

8:33 - Reminisce about how productive I was, since Biden wouldn’t even wake up until noon.

8:40 - Chat with my CFO for 19 mins about some new compliance form we need to file.

8:59 - Trump Tweets about how stupid Powell is. Futures are back down 30 handles.

9:04 - Join a call 4 mins late with an endowment that wants an update, but 100% will never invest. “BTW - we need you to update the DDQ as we’ve changed our format” 😡😡

9:29 - Casino is opening. Let’s see what happens.

9:32 - I’m bored. Go back to reading emails. Turns out the govt created another new form we ALSO need to fill out…

10:00 - We’re actually up 50bps.

10:03 - Now down 175bps. Trump just threatened to bomb Europe.

10:06 - Tweets he was just joking about Europe. But those guys need to get their shit together bc he might still bomb them.

10:08 - Ready for bourbon. Beer won’t cut it…

10:30 - EIA oil inventory shows yet another massive draw. Oil drops 5% anyway.

10:40 - Don Jr’s latest SPAC rallies 300% on rumors it may launch a new ShitCoin

10:45 - Friend calls to cry about how cheap all his names are. We both agree we were idiots to invest in businesses with earnings.

11:22 - Trump reminds everyone about how much Putin likes him.

11:40 - Realize I’m now too tweaked to sit in the office. Turn off the machines and go get lunch with a friend who’s also gonna bitch about how stupid markets have become.

12:05 - Hostess at restaurant pitches me some ShitCoin. Claims she’s up a few million on it

12:07 - Friend starts bitching about how stupid it is to be an investor under Trump, and how we all made money under Biden. I agree with him, but we both agree it would be even stupider under Kamala…😩😩

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$COIN, what a difference a week makes....

Clearly declining into its 2nd Daily Cycle Low.
Just came within a few points of the 50% retracement of the 14 week advance ($293.61) and 70% of the 2nd Daily Cycle.

Still early for a DCL but a number of bounces and undercuts would help to prevent price falling off a cliff while using up the remaining time.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$COIN updated. Has so far printed an early Daily Cycle High (DCH) approx 50% between the lower/upper Orange targets. Watching carefully how the retest of the DCH plays out. Not ruling out an equally early Daily Cycle Low has been printed, need more P/A to confirm.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$NQ as of now

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$NQ As yesterdays minor pullback projections were invalidated, that leaves a daily time frame level projection in play. The bottom green target being the usual target followed by the lower orange level depending how much a hurry price is to get there.

$22,868.00 has just been achieved on $NQ, as has $6,265 on $ES (not pictured).

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$UnderTheHood, that's how lows form. Work is required to better understand the price structure as I thought yesterdays low was a minor cycle low TBH. Hopefully this is not a very early failure.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$UnderTheHood

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$UnderTheHood

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$NQ now or never.... but "under the hood" isn't looking great

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$NQ As it's printing todays intra low. That 11:16am (UTC-4) low needs to hold. If not, one more sweep and quick reversal from a minor lower low does.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$COIN updated. Has so far printed an early Daily Cycle High (DCH) approx 50% between the lower/upper Orange targets. Watching carefully how the retest of the DCH plays out. Not ruling out an equally early Daily Cycle Low has been printed, need more P/A to confirm.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$COIN Daily chart with both daily and weekly counts.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$NQ Current P/A. Note the body close/open on the 15 minute chart on the lower of the 2 orange targets.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$NQ before;

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$NQ As it's printing todays intra low. That 11:16am (UTC-4) low needs to hold. If not, one more sweep and quick reversal from a minor lower low does.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$COIN Daily chart with both daily and weekly counts.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

Assuming April 7th was an Intermediate (weekly) Cycle Low (& Yearly Cycle Low) for $COIN, then it stands to reason June 13th was the first Daily Cycle Low in a new Intermediate Cycle . Therefore $235.29 becomes the SL.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

$BTC has no business revisiting sub $98,225. Not my base case but if it does in the next few weeks.....

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

As the $BTC price range from September 6-12th has been fully rebalanced, price has no business revisiting sub $57,477. Protecting entries with at least a modest green SL might be prudent.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

Small but important differences between #US100 & $NQ (100) with regards to the Sunday opening price & range during those all important first few minutes of trading (again).

Short term bearish p/a played out but not quite as expected. Worth noting #US100 printed a higher high on Friday 20th Vs. Wednesday 18th, whereas #US500 did not. The #US500 path being my basecase.

Those pesky market moving headlines are proving difficult to navigate on lower time frames.

[10xCycleTrader-Etoro @10xCycleTrader]

Very deep retracement on #US100 during #FOMC. The odds of taking out $21,628 by Thursdays closing bell (if not much sooner) have gone way up imo.

NFA, DYOR.