10x Research

Called Bitcoin’s Oct ’22 Bottom, Jul ’23 $125k Top & Oct ’25 Bear - Before They Happened | Institutional Crypto & Cross-Asset Research | Millennium | JPMorgan |

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

🔥 INSIGHT: Markus Thielen of @10xresearch would split his portfolio 50/50 between Bitcoin and gold at current levels.

Speaking with @itsciaranlyons, @markus10x says AI stocks are much harder to value right now.

His conviction: keep it simple with Bitcoin and gold.

#TradeSecrets

[10x Research @10xResearch]

10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Bitcoin's Bull Market Is Officially Here. How to trade it?

This Sunday/Monday crypto kickoff walks through the data points driving market structure, flows, and positioning this week, blended with the macro backdrop and technicals that could shift the narrative in the days ahead.

It's a short-term-focused read, grounded in data, interpreted through our lens, and built to prepare you for the week ahead.

We have a special add-on offer for Market Updates subscribers who'd like to add Trading Signals, including our BTC and ETH volatility publication and including our Dashboard with our model portfolios. If interested, email [email protected].

10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Bitcoin's Bull Market Is Officially Here.

We have consistently pointed out that Bitcoin would most likely confirm its cycle low in either August or September, with August looking increasingly likely.

Still, $63,000 was a binary level, as the distribution price had moved there, meaning a rally of just 2-3% above that level would suddenly awaken the animal spirits.

Many Bitcoin buyers would have flipped back into profit above that level ($65,000) and likely increased their leverage, pushing Bitcoin higher still.

The resulting delta increase from options, with a large amount of calls sitting at the $70,000 strike level, could provide a further push, which would in turn lift funding rates (ENA token the key beneficiary) and attract more ETF inflows.

We explained this dynamic in a CoinDesk interview (here) last week, conducted when Bitcoin was still trading at $63,000.

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But much more is happening behind the scenes: important regulatory changes, key updates on flows and positioning, and how we'd trade the latest move, including what traders should be doing now and how they should be positioned. We explain it all below.

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How to trade this new bull market - see our latest weekly kick off report: https://t.co/hwlu7dK7aT

[10x Research @10xResearch]

ZEC is up +63% in the past 30 days and surged +12% today alone to a fresh all-time high near $819.

Few assets in the market have moved this fast, this consistently, over the last month.

Zcash has been one of our top altcoin picks, and it just made a new high after a monster move.

Moments like this are the scariest part of being long: the price screams higher, and traders start biting their nails, wondering whether to lock in profits or stay the course, knowing volatility cuts both ways.

This is exactly where our quant analysis (aka trading signals) earns its keep.

A few days ago, when Bitcoin ripped to $69,000, plenty of traders tried to fade the move, and our models gave clear guidance on that call too.

So what's the read on Zcash now? Are the odds still favoring longs, or is this the moment to take profits? And what does the latest trading signal, just triggered, say?

Full report: https://t.co/Gs45BFjmn9

@Zcash

[10x Research @10xResearch]

@Pumpfun 'crashes' up +173% in 1 month - Here is what's going on

*** Luckily we added Pump into our altcoin model portfolio and have mentioned the coin frequently during the last 3-4 weeks as there were clear bullish catalysts.

*** On August 18, 2026, the SEC proposed "Regulation Crypto Assets," a new tailored securities offering framework for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets. Some are seeing this as 'game on' for altcoins.

*** PUMP is up +319% off its June low and +173% in just the past 30 days, decisively clearing its 30-day moving average on sustained momentum.

*** Weekly fees surpassed $10 million, with half of net revenue funneled into buybacks and burns, tightening token supply.

*** The protocol reportedly overtook Hyperliquid in 30-day revenue, holding the lead for 13 straight days, reinforcing its dominant market position.

*** Curve Finance founder Michael Egorov publicly called the platform "a casino of scams,". Despite lingering supply pressure from a recent token unlock, strong fundamentals kept sentiment firmly bullish.

We also recently published a few more trading insights: https://t.co/fQbTNOB2WH

[10x Research @10xResearch]

The Four Charts That Matter Most for Bitcoin Right Now – And What They Mean https://t.co/S6MIYyS2dK

[10x Research @10xResearch]

BTC is up +32% off its July 1 low of $58,559, decisively reclaiming its 30-day moving average after a sharp multi-week climb.

*** This is the first time since the June breakdown that price has cleared the MA with real conviction.

*** Bitcoin (BTC-USD is above the 7-day moving average -> bullish, and is above the 30-day moving average -> bullish, with 1 week change of +22.4%)

*** Driven mainly by the US Treasury doubling its long-dated bond buyback operations to at least $4 billion per operation, which pushed yields and the dollar lower and boosted risk assets broadly.

*** Trump also urged Congress to pass crypto market-structure legislation at a White House meeting with major crypto executives, adding a policy tailwind.

*** The move triggered over $1 billion in short-position liquidations, amplifying the upward momentum.

*** Spot Bitcoin ETFs also posted net inflows, reinforcing the bullish shift.

We published 'The Signals That Will Confirm Bitcoin's Bear Market Is Over' on August 2, 2026, and it's time for an update, again drawing on our chart book of 30+ charts across multiple timeframes. This analysis framework and process have been instrumental in helping us anticipate the market's latest moves.

We also just published "The Four Charts That Matter Most for Bitcoin Right Now – And What They Mean" https://t.co/Hi3cPn29DN

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[10x Research @10xResearch]

@DaveSte82463893 yes that's what we pointed out last week in our weekly altcoin report: Rebalancing the Altcoin Model Portfolio — Plus 8 Altcoins Still Wide Awake This Summer https://t.co/SlgSj2WUR5

[10x Research @10xResearch]

Zcash Broke Out — Here's What the Odds Say Happens Next

Zcash has been one of our top altcoin picks, and it just made a new high after a monster move.

Moments like this are the scariest part of being long: the price screams higher, and traders start biting their nails, wondering whether to lock in profits or stay the course, knowing volatility cuts both ways.

This is exactly where our quant analysis (aka trading signals) earns its keep.

A few days ago, when Bitcoin ripped to $69,000, plenty of traders tried to fade the move, and our models gave clear guidance on that call too.

Fundamental drivers are:

*** Accelerating migration to Zcash's new Ironwood shielded pool, with over $1.6 billion moved into it, addressing a previously discovered vulnerability in the older Orchard pool.

*** Grayscale submitted an amended S-3 filing for a spot Zcash ETF, shifting to a cash creation/redemption model similar to approved Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

*** Nasdaq-listed Cypherpunk activated what it called the world's largest Zcash mining operation.

That's why a monster rally was inevitable.

So what's the read on Zcash now? Are the odds still favoring longs, or is this the moment to take profits? And what does the latest trading signal, just triggered, say?

Zcash (ZEC-USDT) new high - fade the move? Or load up? Here is our report: https://t.co/Gs45BFjmn9

[10x Research @10xResearch]

Macro Drivers: Catalysts of the last week

🟢 Top performers

Gold (+6%) / Silver (+6%) — Precious metals extended their rally on a mix of a weak jobs report, a surprise Treasury announcement to more than double buybacks of long-dated debt, and safe-haven demand from unresolved U.S.-Iran tensions, all while gold entered technically overbought territory.

WTI Crude Oil (+5%) — Oil pushed above $87 as Trump ruled out reviving a truce with Iran, keeping a geopolitical risk premium in the price amid worries over Middle East supply disruption.

Hong Kong (+4%) / Health Care (+4%) — Health care and cyclicals rallied even as tech sagged, a classic rotation pattern where money moved out of expensive AI/tech names and into defensive and value plays; Hong Kong benefited from the same broad rotation out of U.S. tech.

Energy (+3%) / Materials (+3%) / China Large Cap (+3%) — Energy and materials tracked the oil and gold strength directly, while China large caps rode the broader emerging-market/rotation bid.

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🔴 Bottom performers

Technology (-4%) — Chip and AI-related names got hit hard as surging bond yields (30-year hit its highest level in nearly two decades) made high-multiple growth stocks look expensive again, compounding fears the AI trade had run too far too fast.

Utilities (-3%) / Industrials (-3%) — Rate-sensitive sectors sold off in sympathy with the bond selloff, since higher yields raise the discount rate on their steady cash flows and debt-servicing costs.

Japan (-3%) / Taiwan (-3%) — Both markets are heavily exposed to the same semiconductor/AI supply chain that led the tech selloff, so they moved in lockstep with U.S. chip weakness.

In our cross asset macro publication '10x What Matters' we had predicted to gold move in our August 5, 2026 report: "The Macro Trade We'd Rather Be In" https://t.co/D8XE5kIszW

[10x Research @10xResearch]

We turned bearish @HyperliquidX (HYPE) when prices reached $72 and it was the right call.

Back then, volumes were not rising sufficiently anymore to justify the token upside. See our complete valuation model.

*** Hyperliquid (HYPE-USDT is above the 7-day moving average -> bullish, and is above the 30-day moving average -> bullish, with 1 week change of +3.4%)

*** Continued its deflationary mechanism, burning $1 million in HYPE tokens funded by daily fee revenue.

*** Ecosystem strength has also stood out, as Hyperliquid's tokenized real-world asset market has surpassed the combined trading volume of all other cryptocurrency categories.

*** Spot ETF flows turned negative in July, posting the first monthly outflow after two strong months.

Full list of 50+ altcoins (price set up + catalysts) send out every week, join the distribution list: https://t.co/Rq5pcwCQHf

[Markus Thielen @markus10x]

Circle now up +44% post earnings … trading at $88…. This was another one of our trades… ->>>. https://t.co/YxLjnCcL9M

[CoinDesk @CoinDesk]

After months of bearish sentiment, Bitcoin is climbing back toward $80K.

@markus10x joins @jennsanasie on Markets Outlook to break down why institutions—not retail—could drive the next leg higher, and why $1M Bitcoin by 2030 may be further out of reach than many think.

00:00 - Markus Thielen Joins Markets Outlook
00:37 - Where Does Bitcoin End the Year?
02:02 - When Do We See a New ATH?
05:32 - Brand New Rails: Symbiotic x Centrifuge
08:44 - Is Bitcoin Still a Retail Product?
12:03 - $1 Million Bitcoin by 2030?
15:20 - On-Chain Signals to Watch Right Now

[10x Research @10xResearch]

Four Crypto Stocks We'd Buy For the Next 6-12 Months.

Each of these four names began as a crypto business and is now monetizing a second, larger one.

That gives the basket two mostly independent return drivers instead of one, so it isn't a pure Bitcoin proxy.

The result is a convex payoff that doesn't hinge on a single macro variable cooperating. A

n equal-weighted 25% allocation across the four is a reasonable starting point, and hedge funds can go further: shorting Bitcoin (or BTC futures) against the basket strips out the residual crypto beta and leaves a close-to-delta-neutral position that's still long convexity without directional crypto risk. https://t.co/Me7KrRWN9d

[10x Research @10xResearch]

@0xmandaaa @BITofficial_EN @0xmandaaa this is the report you are looking for: https://t.co/52mzs1CRH4

[BIT Official @BITofficial_EN]

📃#BITOnTarget Report - July 24 , 2026 ⬇️

$40 Trillion Debt, 5% Yields: The Great Rotation Into Gold and Bitcoin?

#BIT #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #MarketOutlook

[BIT Official @BITofficial_EN]

🎉 200 issues of BIT on Target

Thank you to everyone who’s read, replied, and pushed back along the way.

What should Markus break down next? Drop it in the comments, we’ll pick three responses and send 10 USDT to each selected commenter.

[10x Research @10xResearch]

Bitcoin's Next Resistance: Our Favorite BTC Trade Is Up 1,334%

Bitcoin is now trading near $75,000, catching most of the market off guard. After settling into a comfortable summer lull, most traders had expected the bottom to arrive only in October.

We took a different view, positioning for a surprising upside move instead, a thesis we laid out in a recent CoinDesk interview (here), conducted when Bitcoin was still trading at $63,000.

When Bitcoin jumped to $69,201 yesterday, many traders looked to fade the rally, but our statistical analysis pointed the other way (here): the push higher was likely to continue.

Because we focused on Bitcoin options, instead of spot or futures, we stayed in the trade and let the P&L keep running.

In our August 5 report, "How We'd Be Using Bitcoin Options Right Now for the Next Move," we recommended buying the $70,000-strike Bitcoin calls expiring August 28, 2026. Since then, those calls have surged from $358 to $5,130 (or 1,334%) as implied volatility climbed from 30% to 40%, and Bitcoin rallied.

A critical question now is whether this move continues, and if so, how high.

But equally important: for traders who followed our suggestion to buy the $70,000 August calls, what should they be doing now, and what's our preferred trade going forward?

Full report: https://t.co/PwR1A33BE4

Our favorite trade for August - BTC $70,000 calls

[10x Research @10xResearch]

WHY IS HYPE RALLYING +30%?

Hyperliquid (HYPE-USDT is above the 7-day moving average -> bullish, and is above the 30-day moving average -> bullish, with 1 week change of +29.7%).

*** Trump said CFTC Chair Michael Selig is "working very hard" to bring Hyperliquid into the US "in a fully compliant and legal fashion," pushing the token near its all-time high around $70-76.

*** The remarks came at a White House meeting with crypto executives from @coinbase , @Ripple, and other major firms, alongside SEC and CFTC leadership.

*** Shares of @HyperliquidX Strategies, the publicly traded company holding HYPE as a treasury asset, jumped roughly 30% on the news.

One Liners: Crypto Market Drivers — 6 Charts That Matter Now

One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX. https://t.co/oxLNx2cqzI

[10x Research @10xResearch]

PUMP is up +211% off its June low, and today alone it ripped +24%, decisively clearing its 30-day moving average on rising momentum. This is exactly the kind of setup our models are built to catch early.

Last week's six One Liner charts (here) delivered standout performance and were squarely at the center of the market's biggest moves.

@circle gained +15% since our last publication, Gold rose +3.7%, Monero added +4%, @HyperliquidX's HYPE surged +30%, and Pump. fun climbed +27%, while Iren was the lone laggard, down 6%.

That's five winners against one loser, for an average return of +12% across the six names. Here's a look at this week's six charts.

Earlier in August, we replaced one of the 10 coins in our ‘Discretionary Altcoin Model’ portfolio (here, see dashboard for Trading Signals) with @Pumpfun, arguably a swap we should have made sooner, given its strong catalysts.

Even so, the position has already delivered exceptional performance: Pump. Fun's token was one of last week's top performers, returning +32% and outpacing even market favorite HYPE.

We've also flagged Pump. Fun repeatedly in this report over the past few weeks, notably just last week, right before its big move.

On August 12, we proposed a portfolio of "Four Crypto Stocks We'd Buy for the Next 6-12 Months," which is already up +10.6%. https://t.co/Me7KrRWN9d

We have strong conviction in this portfolio as a compelling way to gain exposure, with several of these names positioned for outsized returns. We've also added it to the dashboard so Trading Signals subscribers can track its performance directly.

Pump. fun was one of our top charts in last week’s report. Full report "One Liners: Crypto Market Drivers — 6 Charts That Matter Now" https://t.co/oxLNx2cqzI

[10x Research @10xResearch]

Why Gold Has Been Our Top Trade in August

Based on our Trading Signal from August 6, Gold had triggered a signal that had worked in 10 out of the last 10 times it was triggered.

Or in other words: 100% Hit Rate: Inside the Macro Signal Nobody's Talking About: https://t.co/uBoRxCEmgT

Gold (GC is above the 7-day moving average -> bullish, and is above the 30-day moving average -> bullish, with 1 week change of 3.8%) the US Treasury announced it would more than double its buyback of long-dated notes and bonds, easing pressure on soaring yields.

Lower borrowing costs reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, giving the metal a direct lift.

Central bank buying also remained a strong structural support, with the World Gold Council reporting the strongest second-quarter purchases on record, led by Poland and China.

Rising Treasury yields briefly pressured gold earlier in the week as Middle East peace talks stalled.

Full report: https://t.co/fQbTNOB2WH

[10x Research @10xResearch]

@mulleteer @markus10x no, our report from two days ago provided a clear overview with a directional bullish view

[10x Research @10xResearch]

Bitcoin's Breakout Is Here — How We're Positioning

This is not the time for complacency; as we wrote two days ago, Bitcoin was ready to move.

After months of Bitcoin trading within a tight range, we anticipated a decisive move in either direction. Our preferred strategy this month was buying the $70,000 strike calls, which traded for as little as $300 on August 5 (here), dipped to just $30 three days ago, and then rallied to a high of $1,600; they currently trade around $1,300.

Those returns have been phenomenal, and the collapse in implied volatility this month made this the best risk-adjusted way to position for an upside spike, especially at a moment when most traders weren't expecting one, as reflected in the low trading volume at the time.

An even better trade was (or still is) our $70,000/$80,000 call spread expiring in September, a slightly more bullish structure that also offered the flexibility to buy back the lower-strike call if Bitcoin broke through our $62,000 stop, which it fortunately did not.

Circle was another of our top recommendations this month (here): we suggested buying the dip after its earnings release as the stock fell toward $60–$61, and it now trades at $80, up more than 31%.

Ahead of the February earnings report, where we projected a wave of short covering, we made a similarly successful call; Circle shares quickly rallied 80% as that short covering played out (here).

Three of our four crypto equity trades for the next 6–12 months (here) have now also reached our "top chart" rating, a signal that requires trading above both the short-term (7-day) and medium-term (30-day) moving averages while also outperforming Bitcoin.

Our gold trade has played out similarly well. We first flagged it on July 7, 2026 (here), when weekly technicals turned oversold, a rare setup that had only occurred once before, in September 2023, ahead of that period's major breakout.

Our trading signals flagged a setup on August 5 (here) that had worked 10 out of the last 10 times, with an average upside of +12.9%. Stocks, however, often move ahead of the underlying commodity, and in this case, our signals had already picked up a similar pattern in Newmont Goldcorp on July 30 (here), which has since returned +31%.

Of course, not every trading signal will be successful, but we kept reiterating the gold call as it aligned with our macro view, and the breakout materialized, with gold rallying from $4,100 to $4,571 (+11%). The core driver behind our thesis was our expectation that U.S. debt would soon eclipse $40 trillion, generating headline risk that would push gold, and likely Bitcoin, higher.

Full report: https://t.co/4PKimhmo8O