#Altcoins Turn Bull after Longest Bear Market
It's been an absolutely horrific bear markets for altcoins and a lot of expectations have crushed in the past quarter.
I've spend all my time figuring out what has happened. Indicators show green.
Let's discuss them ⬇️
First of all, if you'd like to learn more about my reasoning and the thesis behind it, please subscribe to our YouTube channel and watch this video for a thorough analysis:
https://t.co/uSroX67xFW
There are multiple factors that are moving the markets and most of them are outside crypto.
1 - Liquidity is increasing, and therefore, #Bitcoin is expected go go up.
This is the simple conclusion connected to the price action on Bitcoin. M2 supply goes up, so does Bitcoin as Bitcoin is a scarce asset. Great methodology, although there's a deeper ground to it, which is macroeconomic and geopolitical.
The concerns where that the tariffs are inflationary, but data proves the opposite.
However, tariffs do have an impact on the economy in the short term, so there's the thesis to stimulate the economies.
China has started firing up QE, Europe has lowered the interest rates and we're at the forefront of U.S. lowering interest rates and expanding the money supply (or easily said: starting doing printer brr again).
That is a heavy trigger for risk-on assets and will likely start pushing Bitcoin towards a new all-time high.
2 - Gold peaking out short-term, rotation towards risk-on assets
The second important variable is the fact that risk-on assets have been moving in a terrible manner.
I strongly believe that we wouldn't be having an ATH for Bitcoin if it wasn't just for the ETF and Trump being in the office.
The ETF unlocked a bunch of new liquidity into the markets, through which Bitcoin's price pushed upwards significantly due to shortage impacts on the supply side. Very easy. If you think that through, then you'll also understand what's yet to come.
Anyways, Gold represents a risk-off appetite and it has currently outperformed the S&P since 2022 by 20%. Insanity.
On the other hand, the markets have started to peak for Gold in the short-term. I truly approve that we're in a bull market for risk-off assets and that there are certain windows in between that provide windows for risk-on momentum.
We're on the edge of one. That means a 12-18 month window of risk-on assets to do well as the correlation between a strong Gold price and falling altcoins have provided strong data.
Gold has extended massively upwards as the RSI data has gone into levels not seen since 1980, while ETH has gone so deep that its on the lowest point ever against Bitcoin on the weekly and monthly data.
3 - CNH/USD correlation with ETH/BTC the trigger for Altcoins
The most important indicator I'm using is the picture attached, which provides the following:
- Candles are Chinese Renminbi / U.S. Dollar
- The purple line is ETH/BTC
There are some very crucial data points that you should realize and there's something to take into account from it.
- The moment CNH/USD bottomed in December '16, that was the moment ETH/BTC and the entire markets of #Altcoins have shot away.
- The moment CNH/USD bottomed in the Summer of '19, that signaled the bottom for ETH/BTC and caused a 2-year bull market for altcoins.
The same can be said for the peaks on the altcoin markets and the strength of the Chinese Renminbi vs. the Dollar.
From this, there are a few conclusions to be drawn.
First of all, as you can see, during this month, the CNH/USD chart has provided a deep wick during the tariff madness and that is likely the final wick that we've seen in the current trend. It also proves the fact that we couldn't see any strength on altcoins recently as the Chinese renminbi fell in the previous few months and therefore crypto fell.
Secondly, I erase the fact that we've got a 4-year cycle. It's more macro-driven and, luckily, it was in line with the 4-year cycle historically.
However, institutions are jumping in so different factors need to be taken into account and those are macroeconomic tables. They'll be more important.
Just like liquidity is the key trigger for Bitcoin, that's the risk-on and risk-off appetite for altcoins which can be provided through charts like the CNH/USD and Gold.
The #Altcoin markets have just witnessed the longest bear market ever, which was 4 years. The previous longest bear market was in 2016, although that was just 2.5 years.
The tables are turning, which means that periods of extreme stress and uncertainty provide the biggest opportunities possible.
Macroeconomic tables are turning, and I assume we'll see Gold correct, Chinese Renminbi to turn upwards and #Altcoins to fire of.
Can you do me one favor? Hit like and bookmark on this post if you've enjoyed reading this so we'll be able to check this in 6 & 12 months whether anything has been true.
Aldığım altcoinleri paylaşırken veya analizleri atarken ayrıca bir şeyler öğretmeye çalışıyorum.
Arada yanılıp zaman kaybettiğim pariteler olabiliyor. Fakat genel itibariyle 2-3 yıldır bizi takip eden birisinin muhteşem kazançlar sağladığı ortada.
Reklam gelirim yok. Hacimsiz parite paylaşmıyorum. Binance harici coin verip de sonra 40 takla atmıyorum. Bir gün gerçekten alırsam paylaşırım.
Resmi olarak bir şirket ve aplikasyon sahibiyim ve onun haricinde bir gelir kaynağım yok. Onu da zorla satmıyorum. Alanların %99’u memnun ki yorumlar ortada.
Her adımımda kriptoya, Bitcoin’e ve yatırımcıya fayda sağlamaya çalışıyorum.
Fakat hala pump dump üzerine kurulu, hacimsiz coinleri kendine gelir kaynağı yapmış tipleri seviyorsunuz.
Beni seven kaç kişi var peki görebilir miyim?
🔥EĞLENİYOR MUYUZ ?
Tweeti attığım saat tarih herşey açık bulunuyor. Bişeyleri doğru okuduktan sonra para kazanmak için müneccim olmaya gerek yok.
PİYASAYI BİR ADIM ÖNDEN TAKİP EDİYORUZ 😜
Yeni arkadaşlar, dün yaşananı düşüş sanıyorlar. Açın bakalım grafiği Bitcoin 2021 Mayıs ve Aralık'da nasıl düşmüş.
Hele 2022 Mayıs - Haziran - Kasım aylarındaki düşüşlere bir bakın bakalım.
Benim geçmişim sizleri bu devasa düşüşlerden önce uyarmakla dolu.
Ufak tefek düşüşlerde tribe girmeyin ve büyük resme odaklanın.
Şimdi de DEVASA yükselişten önce uyarıyorum. Haberiniz olsun :)
Building A $1,000 #Altcoin Portfolio
This cycle is the last cycle where you can leverage yourself through a maximum of gains on altcoins and hit $100,000 with a $1,000 portfolio.
Last cycle, I went from $30,000 to $10 million.
If I can do it, you can do it too. Let´s discuss.
The markets are heating up and the emotions are getting into the decision-making, which is actually benefiting your returns in a negative way.
I'll be making multiple posts on assisting you on how to build and manage a small portfolio, as the coming year can change your life.
If you want to receive more exclusive posts and a discount on 15+ hours of content, make sure to sign-up here:
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The thing is that you're constantly hearing a lot of great stories about people making millions from nothing in memecoins. For sure, this can be done with memecoins, but you should realize that you're far on the edge of the risk curve and that, the further you go, the more people will lose rather than win.
On the other hand, the markets have shown that, with relatively new coins, early in the bull cycle tremendous returns were achieved.
SEI and TIA went up by more than 1,000% in the beginning of this year, not discussing FET or INJ.
The bull market lasts in multiple stages, and we all remember the massive peaks up and down. The peaks up are there to generate return, but actually, most return is made by having the guts to be stepping into an asset again when it's down 50% in a single week or month.
In 2024: alcoins went up 500-1000% and they corrected by more than 50 and even 80%.
The four key principles that you should realize when you're building a small portfolio in this first article.
1⃣ - Less is more.
The first key principle is having less assets in your portfolio. There's a marginal effort required to manage another asset in your portfolio, which leads to a marginal (positive/negative) return within that same portfolio.
One of the key lessons from the previous cycles for me was to reduce the amount of coins in your portfolio as less is more. The optimal size is between 6-8 assets. Manage them well and your return will be significantly high enough.
Why?
Everything is correlated anyways, so going for a bigger portfolio doesn't make much sense.
2⃣ - Smaller coins do not yield a higher return
When I'm trading and investing in the markets, I'd build my portfolio up from risk assessments, rather than from the potential return I could make.
People are so heavily focused on 'this coin went 200x previous cycle, this did a 80x in 3 months'. Yes, but you should realize that you won't be selling that specific high. You'll be too early or too late.
If you build your portfolio from risk rather than the reward, then you'd be taking decisions that 'higher valued' coins within a narrative make more sense if you trade based from the risk perspective. Larger coins have more liquidity, a higher chance of surviving when the narrative wakes up and drop less when the markets shift.
3⃣ - Be patient.
The markets have barely moved upwards, some coins have been yielding a 2x, but that's literally the start.
If you want to have the big returns, you should be patient to avoid excessive trading to be done through those runs.
If you had the ability to take the positions in the accumulation phase, then the 2x isn't the trade that you're looking for, you'd be planning to take a higher return with those altcoins and you know that it's possible, so find something to do in between the period of buying and selling to avoid that you're going to be making silly mistakes.
4⃣ - Rebalance your portfolio.
I think, by far, that the essential part about making sure that you're going to be making it through this cycle is to be having the ability to rebalance your portfolio.
Our courses will educate you the most about this concept, but through this concept you'll:
- erase external factors
- have a strict plan
- work from risk rather than reward
- have the flexibility to ride the waves of the markets
Rebalancing your portfolio means that once you've been making massive returns in the markets, that you're going to shift back towards Bitcoin and Ethereum and possibly even USDT.
This is also where I've been referring to the case that I'll be using the March high to start taking substantial profits from my altcoins back into Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Why? The first run upwards might yield you the first 8-12X, however, swapping towards Bitcoin and Ethereum might provide you an additional 50% (then you'll be at 12-18X), while altcoins are suffering.
Reallocating those funds once the markets have gone down by 50-80% on those altcoins and you'd be setting yourself up for another massive run.
That's how the game is played and that's the best way to build a big portfolio out of a small portfolio.
Compound your returns.
Hit like and click on bookmark if you have enjoyed this update and are loooking for more updates in the coming period!
#Altcoins are in a bull cycle, but how to handle flash crashes?
Today has shown that altcoins are super volatile.
They are able to drop by 10% when $BTC sneezes.
They are certain strategies that you can follow through those times.
Let's discuss flash crashes on #Altcoins. ⬇️
The markets are trending upwards, however, the sentiment can change in the blink of an eye.
Some bigger altcoins have been running upwards by more than 200% in a single week, erasing the bear market of the past three years in a single week. Don't get me wrong. We're in the same stage as in 2020, through which the sentiment is still overly bearish and therefore, the potential expectations for peak bull market valuations for those altcoins are also ridiculously low.
I don't expect Bitcoin to peak at $150K, I rather expect Bitcoin to peak at $500K and I tend to believe that we'll have a longer cycle due to the insane amount of liquidity being added to the markets + the trend switch on macroeconomics yet to happen.
Now, back to altcoins.
➡️They are super illiquid and when the sentiment is positive, people tend to overleverage themselves on illiquid assets to make more money.
Simple.
This means that, once the markets are rotating, the long positions are getting liquidated/stopped out, however, the liquidity that comes back into the order books through those forced sells is way larger than what the markets can absorb.
Especially in an event where Bitcoin makes it standard 5-10% correction on a day to take the liquidity on the long side.
This is likely going to cause a chainreaction across markets with deep wicks of corrections of 20-40% on the markets for altcoins.
That's where they come from and that's what I mean by 'flash crashes'.
What are strategies for those periods?
1 - The best thing is to be patient and to accumulate your altcoin positions NOW. In this accumulation period is the easiest period to be building those positions as the markets haven't gone vertical, yet.
If that happens, then you don't need to be doing much doring those flash crashes. It's just a reset of the markets. Avoid any emotional behavior and just sit through it.
2 - If you don't have any position or you want to add to your position, those flash crashes are the most optimal entry points you could wish for. On social media, people are likely going to be stating that markets are going to go way deeper, and that's what you need to avoid.
Just step into the markets, buy after those massive corrections that take place and start to hold.
Being patient is the best thing to maximize your returns. The past cycle I've had a few 100x+ runs on coins. How? By sitting on my hands.
It's difficult, but you can do it.
Hit like and please share if you enjoyed this one!
🚨 Dün ücretsiz analizlerimiz dolara boğdu. Burada önemli olan eller titrerken bu analizleri atabilmekti.
Kaçtı diyerek üzülmeyin, bugün yenilerini bulacağım!
Acil toplanın! 🚀🔥
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