Next time your favorite team faces 1st and goal at the 1, think about this:
Since at least 2000, no NFL team has ever been stopped on four consecutive one yard sneaks within the same set of downs.
In fact, no team has been stopped on even three consecutive sneaks within the same set of downs.
We also searched over a million college football snaps and found no confirmed example of it happening there, either.
My “sneak until you score” model projects a touchdown:
• By the second sneak: 87.8%
• By the third sneak: 96%
• By the fourth sneak: 99%
One Super Bowl-winning head coach learned of this research and asked me:
“Why would you ever do anything different?”
If every team employed this strategy, the NFL could see over 200 additional touchdowns on sneak calls in 2026.
Running backs, and their fantasy managers, would not be happy.
Every detail and nuance that makes this strategy nearly unstoppable is explained in the video below ⬇️
Jalen Hurts is tied with Josh Allen and Drake Maye for the most 25+ yard passing TDs (9) in the NFL this season, matching the 2nd-highest total of his career (12 in 2022). Jalen once again today showed he is a very good deep ball passer.
The Eagles defense has only allowed 7 passing touchdowns (2nd best in the league).
Meanwhile, opposing QBs are completing just 59.4% with a passer rating of 80.1 (4th-lowest in the NFL).
And that’s with Philly having played Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, and Baker Mayfield… 4 guys who all just so happen to be in the Top 10 of the MVP race.
Vic Fangio is a mastermind.