“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you…” - President Donald J. Trump
New at THE OVERSHOOT:
Markets Are Still Sanguine About the Oil Outlook
https://t.co/QsizGVkoI5
Prior oil shocks in 1973 and 1979 involved far larger price increases than what we have seen so far. Yet this shock involves a hit to volumes that is unprecedented outside of Covid.
Here is everything I have to say on Hormuz along with some thoughts on how it could impact portfolios
Key takeaways:
- Gas supply is more precarious than oil
- It may be easier than some expect to meaningfully disrupt trade
- Europe and Asia are big losers
- Supply chain issues run beyond energy: Look downstream for the most interesting opportunities
https://t.co/pGWv1P3duE
Neither theory, history nor the latest data suggests a recession driven by AI job dislocation is likely, the WSJ’s Greg Ip writes https://t.co/At6QKaLDfp via @WSJ
"Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead. This is not only Justice for the people of Iran, but for all Great Americans, and those people from many Countries throughout the World, that have been killed or mutilated by Khamenei..." - President Donald J. Trump
1/ Some Simple Economics of AGI—🔥🧵
Right now, there is a low-grade panic running through the economy. Everyone is asking the same anxious question: what exactly is AI going to automate, and what will be left for us?