Irrational Space

The irrationality of a thing is no argument against its existence, rather a condition of it. RTs≠endorsements.

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Thank you for reading this post!

Please also consider donating to support Ukrainian students who study during the war if this cause resonates with you.

https://t.co/EiRauCHUp8

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

You can't mount a credible defense of your currency with FX intervention if - at the same time - you're capping bond yields in a world where yields are going up everywhere else. An imagined conversation with my friends @Brad_Setser and @GagnonMacro...
https://t.co/cXfDdIQ9er

[Izabella Kaminska @izakaminska]

China aggressively undercut the world’s solar markets until it became a monopoly. Everyone thought falling solar panel costs reflected some sort of technological leap, and lapped up the cheap panels. But now it turns out none of this output was cost effective at these prices. And the sector has become too costly for China to support fiscally.

As a result, the West’s climate agenda faces losing its Chinese subsidy. This is going to add even more cost pressure to most households and make net zero even more unachievable without making everyone significantly poorer. But I disagree that China’s monopoly position can somehow be used as statecraft.

With prices normalised capitalism will revert to doing what it does best. All the Western manufacturers that China originally priced out (and who were actually innovating properly) will be back within a couple of years or less.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

The key catalyst for precious metals to go crazy last year was Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech on August 22, which signaled a rate cutting cycle in spite of elevated inflation. That's not where we are now. Markets are pricing a much more hawkish Fed...
https://t.co/vdpzPH8TBi

[Financial Times @FT]

The power games that paved the way for Trump’s World Cup https://t.co/JwunHgVCp5

[IMF @IMFNews]

The global economy now uses roughly half as much energy per dollar of output as it did in 1980, helping cushion oil shocks. Read more in F&D magazine. https://t.co/uIBOYR9eU2

[The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent]

⚡️Update: Ukraine launches large-scale drone attacks on Russia, naval plant near St. Petersburg reportedly hit ahead of Economic Forum finale.

https://t.co/tUZSHJAn79

[Financial Times @FT]

Wasting China’s solar panel surplus is madness https://t.co/kgYaN6WGFa | opinion

[Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM]

Zelenskyy tells Putin: "We must determine what kind of future awaits the generations of Ukrainians and Russians who will come after us.

"If you do not personally come to the conclusion that it is time to end this war, Ukraine will continue fighting for its existence. We will have those who support us.

"But you, too, will have to fight much harder for your own existence — not Russia’s, but your own. And this is not a threat from me or from Ukraine. It is a fact of Russian history that you know well: when Russia grows tired, change comes."
https://t.co/tFKMp6z4Vx

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Applebaum: Trump is using a specific language from the 1930s: “enemies within,” “enemies of the people,” migrants and political opponents as “vermin,” migrants “poisoning the blood” of Americans.

That language comes from Hitler, Stalin and the Stasi. 1/

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

a thucydides trap has a lead power in decline and a rising power that's challenging it.
that's not what's happening with the united states and china.

i explain what is with @ezraklein

[The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent]

⚡️'First such operation in modern history' — Ukraine destroys Russia's drone base at occupied Donetsk Airport.

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces are "systematically destroying enemy infrastructure, making the airport's operation impossible." https://t.co/NS4bkrk2p4

[Michael McDonough @M_McDonough]

One of the more striking NFP charts: the three-month moving average of payroll gains.

[Ben Moll @ben_moll]

For those interested, here are my slides from yesterday's Cowles Lecture at the Econometric Society Meetings @YaleCowles @econometricsoc

https://t.co/HilQnlxMEG

Thanks so much for listening and for the great discussion and comments!

[NBER @nberpubs]

Providing theoretical and empirical perspectives on whether the risk-free rate exceeds the risk-adjusted growth rate, from Stavros Panageas https://t.co/8hFCQQ2iom

[Financial Times @FT]

Swedish business bristles over EU interventions https://t.co/q1ilnBgerq | opinion

[Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @skalemliozcan]

What are the bond markets telling us? My new piece at @ProSyn explains how markets are starting to price the new global inflationary environment of frequent supply shocks that monetary policy needs to navigate: https://t.co/1mxvrpJimJ

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

NEW: Russian forces conducted yet another devastating drone and missile strike series against Ukraine on the night of June 1 to 2, heavily targeting Kyiv City. The Russian strikes killed at least 22 civilians and injured at least 130.

Other Key Takeaways:

Russia’s June 1 to 2 strikes are part of a pattern of escalating Russian strikes against Kyiv City intended to take advantage of Patriot interceptor shortages and distract from Russia’s inability to secure its deep rear from Ukrainian long-range strikes as well as from its battlefield setbacks.

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances throughout the theater in the past day.

[Financial Times @FT]

Palantir should not have ‘significant role’ in UK public data systems, MPs say https://t.co/ceQMGDfffu

[FedResearch @FedResearch]

New #FEDSNote: How U.S. Bank Stock Prices Respond to Geopolitical Risk: https://t.co/4Fwt1lGxVX #EconTwitter