$ES | $SPX Weekly Plan | May 11-15
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The key this week is whether buyers can sustain upside momentum following Wednesday’s true gap higher, which remains unfilled (7299.75) and led to the formation of a double distribution on the weekly profile.
The auction has been notably one-sided for quite some time, but value continues to follow price, suggesting acceptance of higher prices, a dynamic that must shift for the tone to meaningfully change.
A strong response that keeps the context unchanged would see value building within last week’s upper distribution. This would set the stage for upside continuation, implying that the market has not yet auctioned high enough to attract a meaningful opposing response. The current ATH at 7427.75 lacks meaningful excess.
Failure to do so, implying a fill of the true gap and acceptance into last week’s lower distribution, would have the potential to shift the tone. In that scenario, downside potential would be improved if the market first attempts higher and forms an excess high.
@smashelito Hey Smash! Quick question about your methodology — what timeframe do you use for the levels marked as ‘HTF Level’ on your charts? Thanks in advance!
#ES_F completes a full 100% range extension from the prior multi-week balance post-breakdown, sweeping the November low in the process.
Interesting times ahead.
@spotgamma Yes, all data are from yesterday Founder's notes (SG Gamma Index™, SG Volatility Trigger, Absolute Gamma Strike, Call Wall, Put Wall, Zero Gamma Level, Gamma Tilt, Gamma Notional, 25 Delta Risk Reversal,Call Volume, Put Volume, Call Open Interest, Put Open Interest).