Here are the results of my Presidential Election Probability Model, using the current candidates (2024-09-09)!
Trump-Vance: 60%
Harris-Walz: 37%
Other(s): 3%
*This presumes less popular tickets will receive a few percent, taken from the top two equally.
#DJT
@LPNational That may be the amount of "libertarians" the Libertarian Party has access to, if it can provide appealing candidates, reach voters, and demonstrate that a vote for a Libertarian Party candidate is valuable.
@gatorgar Correction: it was titled the Kennedy Victory Fund.
https://t.co/rOrwJQ4e2Y
For some reason, It is difficult to find references to Amaryllis, in an internet search, although it is my recollection she negotiated the deal.
@gatorgar Yeah? Why?
The Joint Liberty Fund with the former, pro-Trump Chairman of the LP was conspicuous but may have been a fleeting moment. Apparently, Trump didn't consider her performance worthy of an appointment to Deputy Director of the CIA as she sought.
https://t.co/Bm9fLri0IN
@orcawhale With my Presidential Election Probability Model, I can tell exactly which candidates are high performance, boat anchors or somewhere in between. Gary Johnson is a Titan. Thomas Massie is a nuclear thermal rocket.
@orcawhale Well then, it should be clear that the trajectory was leading to ~10% in 2020 and ~30% in 2024.
Instead, Jo received 1.2%. The party had gained some altitude and inertia but gravity quickly pulled it back to ground. That is what happens when the engines are shut off.
@orcawhale What you are not taking into account is the trajectory. It peaked with Gary Johnson. He, or a comparable candidate, could have continued the trajectory. Neither Jo Jorgensen or Chase Oliver are in the same league as Gary.
2008 0.4%
2012 1.0%
2016 3.3%
2020 1.2%
2024 0.4%
@orcawhale Jo Jorgensen was main engine cutoff for the LP, which then went ballistic; and the engine has yet to fire back up.
Gary Johnson is a performer. Based on his trajectory, it is reasonable to expect he would have improved further, if nominated for a third run.
Ground control?
@orcawhale I agree that most of the Federal spending is not constitutional and should be cut, as soon as possible. This is one of reasons that I avoid military contract work, by and large, as able.
@orcawhale Why use such vulgar language?
Two of the largest Federal expenses are military and debt service. Most military spending is unnecessary and not constitutional. Cuts to all but the U.S. Militia would free up funds to pay down the debt and fund Federal obligations.