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#NFL Week 9 Defence vs. Positional Rankings Cheat Sheets 📊
Here are how each defence stacks up against QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs to help you with all your NFL prop betting this week.
S/O @ShotPropz for help with these sheets 🔥
Any questions? Drop them in the comments below ⬇️
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Injuries 10/29
HOU:
Fred VanVleet - Out
Dorian Finney-Smith - Out
TOR:
Jakob Poeltl - Doubtful
CLE:
Sam Merrill - Out
Darius Garland - Out
Max Strus - Out
BOS:
Jaylen Brown - Probable
Jayson Tatum - Out
ORL:
Moe Wagner - Out
DET:
Ausar Thompson - Questionable
Caris LeVert - Questionable
Marcus Sasser - Questionable
Jaden Ivey - Out
ATL:
Jalen Johnson - Probable
Zaccharie Risacher - Probable
BKN:
Ziaire Williams - Questionable
Haywood Highsmith - Out
SAC:
Yet to submit
CHI:
Coby White - Out
Zach Collins - Out
IND:
Taelon Peter - Doubtful
Andrew Nembhard - Out
Johnny Furphy - Out
Bennedict Mathurin - Out
Tyrese Haliburton - Out
TJ McConnell - Out
Obi Toppin - Out
Kam Jones - Out
DAL:
Anthony Davis - Probable
Dereck Lively II - Doubtful
Daniel Gafford - Doubtful
Brandon Williams - Questionable
Kyrie Irving - Out
Dante Exum - Out
NOP:
Zion Williamson - Questionable
Dejounte Murray - Out
Kevon Looney - Out
DEN:
Cam Johnson - Questionable
POR:
Matisse Thybulle - Questionable
Damian Lillard - Out
Scoot Henderson - Out
Robert Williams - Out
UTA:
Jusuf Nurkic - Questionable
Isaiah Collier - Out
Georges Niang - Out
LAL:
Marcus Smart - Questionable
Jaxson Hayes - Questionable
Luka Doncic - Out
LeBron James - Out
Gabe Vincent - Out
Maxi Kleber - Out
MIN:
Jaylen Clark - Questionable
Anthony Edwards - Out
MEM:
Santi Aldama - Questionable
Vince Williams Jr. - Questionable
Ty Jerome - Out
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Out
Brandon Clarke - Out
Zach Edey - Out
PHX:
Jalen Green - Questionable
Dillon Brooks - Out
#NFL Week 8 Defence vs. Positional Rankings Cheat Sheets 📊
Here are how each defence stacks up against QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs to help you with all your NFL prop betting this week.
S/O @ShotPropz for help with these sheets 🔥
Any questions? Drop them in the comments below ⬇️
🚨Week 8: TE Tier Rankings (Top 20)🚨
⭐National TE Week
BYEMAGGEDON - LV, DET, SEA, AZ, JAC, LAR
1. Tyler Warren
2. Tucker Kraft
3. Dalton Kincaid
4. George Kittle
5. Jake Ferguson
-----
6. Travis Kelce
7. Mason Taylor
8. Evan Engram (stock rising)
9. Oronde Gadsden
10. TJ Hockenson
-----
11. Kyle Pitts (great matchup, bad game script)
12. Cade Otton
13. Zach Ertz
14. Mark Andrews
15. Harold Fannin Jr
-----
16. Hunter Henry
17. Jonnu Smith
18. Colston Loveland
19. Dalton Shcultz
20. Juwan Johnson
Note:
- If David Njoku plays (ranked 9-11 range)
To hear my audio breakdown, check out my YouTube channel that is attached in the post. It will be up later today.
📊WR Matchups for Week 8 PROP BETTING
Outside receivers (left chart) and slot receivers (right chart)
📌 Bookmark this post for Week 8 prop bets
QB pass yards, RB rush/rec yards, and TE receiving yards are also in this same thread ⤵️
How to Interpret:
Courtland Sutton's outside matchup vs DAL is +29 receiving yards
Outside WRs total 29 MORE yards than expected vs DAL
Sutton's prop is 62.5 yards currently, I lean OVER
NFL DFS: WEEK 7
A first look at this weeks 10-game main slate through the lens of StatATL.
SAINTS (20.75) 🟡 AT BEARS (26.25) 🐻
NO hasn’t given up any massive games to opposing QBs, but all 6 QBs they’ve faced exceeded 16 fantasy points, while Jones, Allen, and Maye all surpassed 23.
Along with Caleb Williams, the Chicago run game is also intriguing. D’Andre Swift has seen 12 or more rush attempts and 3 or more targets in every game.
The Saints have faced 5 opposing RBs who saw 12+ carries and 3+ targets (Conner, CMC, Walker, Cook, and Skattebo) and each of them had at least 14.4 fantasy points. That makes Swift appealing at $5,700.
Opposing pass catchers have also put up solid games, with Harrison, Jennings, Smith-Njigba, Shakir, Boutte and Theo Johnson all topping 17.9 points. Rome Odunze stands out as the most likely receiver to continue this trend for Chicago.
On the other side of the ball, both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are interesting as a correlated piece if building around this game.
Former Saints head coach, now Chicago DC Dennis Allen should know Spencer Rattler well. If the Bears scheme shuts down the Saints offense, Caleb Williams may not have the ceiling here for a tournament worthy outcome on the other side.
DOLPHINS (18.5) 🐬AT BROWNS (21.5) 🟤
After looking at all 10 games, I circled back to Dillon Gabriel. He’s the cheapest starting QB at $4,400 and is facing a Dolphins team that has allowed five QBs to top 18.5 fantasy points this season.
With how tight pricing feels, he may have value this week. Gabriel hasn’t been exciting, but has yet to throw an interception and has 3 TDs thru 2+ games.
Jerry Jeudy is coming off 13 targets last week and is also $4,400, while Harold Fannin and David Njoku are sub $4k and averaging 6+ targets a week (both with 14 or more targets in the two games Gabriel has started).
This feels like a strong bounce back spot for Quinshon Judkins. Opposing RB1s have exceeded 97 total yards every game against Miami, with Vidal, Dowdle, and Stevenson all surpassing 137 total yards.
For Miami, I’ll be avoiding De’Von Achane as my rule of “don’t play RB’s against Cleveland” still applies here after Jaylen Warren (8.3 points) marked the 5th RB1 of the season to be held to 15 points or less.
Jaylen Waddle is initially the only Dolphin I’d consider, but has seen his price rise to $6,300.
RAIDERS (16.75) 💀AT CHIEFS (28.75) 🏹
The Chiefs will likely carry a high team total, but it feels hard to imagine a robust game environment with the Chiefs strong defense taking on Geno Smith.
Patrick Mahomes is coming off three straight great performances with 27+ fantasy points in each. He will likely be a consideration for me this week despite my concerns.
The ground game for the Chiefs hasn’t been strong, and LV has yet to allow an RB to exceed 78 rushing yards or 86 total yards all year. With that considered, I doubt Pacheco makes my player pool this week.
The most interesting play is likely to be Rashee Rice at $5,600. Rice operated as Mahomes’ top target last year and is making his season debut this week. The upside at his price is hard to ignore.
For the Raiders, the most appealing option might be rookie Ashton Jeanty, who has seen 20+ opportunities the past 3 weeks, but at $7,000, it feels like this is an unlikely spot for him to post a had-to-have-it score.
EAGLES (22.25) 🦅AT VIKINGS (21.25) 🟪
The Vikings have held every QB they’ve faced this season to 210 or less passing yards. This feels unlikely to be a spot where Jalen Hurts outscores both Dak Prescott and Jayden Daniels, who are both within $200 of his salary.
I’m initially intrigued to see what the field does with Saquon Barkley this week, who has yet to top 20 fantasy points all season and is still priced up at $7,700.
The Vikings have allowed big days to all three backs that saw 20+ touches (168 yards to Bijan Robinson, 128 yards to Quinshon Judkins and 134 yards and 2 TDs to Kenneth Gainwell).
After starting 4-0, the Eagles are coming off back to back losses where Saquon failed to see 15 touches. Of note, Barkley had 22+ touches in all four of the Eagles wins this season.
Through the air, neither A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith stood out. The Vikings held Chase, Odunze, and London all to 50 or fewer yards. The one exception was DK Metcalf (5-126), who scored an 80-yard TD on a broken play.
On the other side of the ball, the matchup stands out for Justin Jefferson, who has posted back-to-back games with 120+ yards.
He now faces an Eagles secondary that has allowed Lamb, Nacua, Egbuka, and Sutton to hit 100 receiving yards against them. Wan’Dale Robinson also had a solid outing with a 6-84-1 line for 20+ DK points.
PANTHERS (21.5) ⚫️ AT JETS (20.5) ✈️
A week after I highlighted how good a spot it was for Bryce Young, I’ll likely be completely hopping off that train this week as the Jets defense has held Allen, Mayfield, Prescott, Nix, and Rodgers all to under 250 passing yards this season.
The ground matchup for Carolina does stand out, but Rico Dowdle has seen his price skyrocket up to $6,800 after back-to-back monster games and Chuba Hubbard will likely return to the mix in the backfield this week.
Garrett Wilson hyperextended his knee last week and is likely going to miss the next few weeks. This leaves the Jets passing “weapons” to be basically non-existent outside of rookie TE Mason Taylor at $3,400.
The Jets will likely run the ball as much as possible, which makes Breece Hall interesting, as 20+ touches feels like the likeliest scenario for him.
PATRIOTS (24.5) 🟦 AT TITANS (17.5) ⚔️
Upon first pass, this doesn't feel like a game I’ll have a lot of exposure to though Drake Maye has topped 21 fantasy points in 4 of the past 5 weeks, and now faces the 1-5 Titans.
The Titans D has been better than I think the field will realize. They’ve held Nix, Stafford, Stroud, Kyler, Geno Smith and Daniel Jones to less than 300 total yards.
The ground matchup doesn’t stand out for Rhamondre Stevenson or TreVeyon Henderson, who have been operating as a split backfield.
Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, Kyren Williams, Ashton Jeanty, Michael Carter, and Woody Marks all combined to average less than 4 yards a carry against the Titans.
So far this season, a Patriot pass catcher has posted a tournament worthy score 5 times, but it’s hard to pin down who it will be on a given week.
Kayshon Boutte has posted a 5x salary score twice, Diggs once, Henry once, and DeMario Douglas posted a 4.9x score last week. Diggs also had a 4.2x score (19.1 points) in week 4. At their salaries, all four could be in play this week as value pieces.
Pass catchers for Tennessee are sneakily intriguing to me as the Patriots have allowed Meyers, Hill, Olave, Bowers, and Kincaid to exceed 97 receiving yards. Titans pass catchers are all under $5k.
Calvin Ridley left the Raiders game with a hamstring injury and if he were to miss, Elic Ayomanor, Chimere Dike, Van Jefferson, and TE Chig Okonkwo would be some of my favorite inexpensive value pieces.
GIANTS (16.75) 🔵 AT BRONCOS (23.75) 🟠
Bo Nix hasn’t been great, but has seen his price drop to $5,600 (the cheapest he’s been all season), and the Giants surrendered 295 or more total yards to Daniels, Prescott, and Hurts already this season.
The other side of the ball is also intriguing as Jaxson Dart has posted a fantasy score of 18.6 or higher in all 3 of his starts this season, and is only priced at $5,200.
While the matchup will be one I think the field will completely shy away from, it should be noted that Jones, Herbert, and Hurts all posted games of 18+ fantasy points against the Broncos, while Ward, Browning, and Fields all threw for 125 or fewer yards with no TDs.
With all that said, it feels unlikely either Nix or Dart produce a top raw or point-per-dollar score in this matchup.
No Giants skill position player stands out, while Courtland Sutton would be my favorite Bronco with 4 games of 17.9 or higher fantasy points already this year.
COLTS (23.5) 🐴 AT CHARGERS (25) ⚡️
The matchup is better than it appears for Justin Herbert as the Colts have allowed games of 375 and 320 passing yards recently. However, Herbert only has one game over 20 fantasy points all season.
On the ground, we saw Kimani Vidal snatch the lead back role last week, but he doesn’t stand out in this matchup at $5,500 as no RB has topped 17 fantasy points against the Colts this season.
Through the air for the Chargers, my interest will likely depend on Quentin Johnston’s status, who missed last week with a hamstring injury.
If he were to miss, both Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen become more viable, while rookies Tre’ Harris and Oronde Gadsden would be intriguing cheap dart throws.
The matchup is below average for Daniel Jones, but better for Jonathan Taylor, as the Chargers have allowed Achane and Croskey-Merritt to both go for 150 total yards and 2 TDs.
At $8,800, JT is the most expensive player on the slate, but has exceeded 30 DK points in half his games this season.
Opposing WR1s have also fared better than the field will realize against LA, with Hollywood Brown (10-99), Courtland Sutton (6-118-1), Deebo Samuel (8-96-1), and Jaylen Waddle (6-95) posting solid lines.
He’s not an exciting click, but Michael Pittman is intriguing to me here, as is Tyler Warren, who leads the team in red-zone targets.
PACKERS (25.25) 🧀AT CARDINALS (18.75) 🔴
Kyler Murray looks truly questionable to play, meaning we might get to see veteran Jacoby Brissett under center again for the Cardinals.
At $4,500, he’s intriguing as a bet on volume as the Packers have seen at least 36 pass attempts against them in every game this season.
Brissett had 44 pass attempts last week against Indy.
This led to Trey McBride tying a season high in targets (11) and early on he looks to be my favorite TE option on the slate at $5,700.
On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals appear on paper to be a difficult matchup for the QB position, however they’ve only faced Rattler, Young, Mac Jones, Darnold, Daniel Jones, and Cam Ward thus far.
At $6,200 Jordan Love is interesting as the Packers should be able to score against the Cards.
The matchup stands out on the ground for Josh Jacobs, as opposing RBs have scored every week against AZ. Jacobs is coming off back-to-back 30+ fantasy point performances with 20 or more touches in every game.
Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft stand out here as well as sub $5k options and would be my favorite stacking options with Jordan Love.
COMMANDERS (28.25) ⛑️AT COWBOYS (26.75) 🤠
The final game of the slate certainly offers the late afternoon hammer. After going through all ten games, I went back and compared players, especially QBs, to Jayden Daniels and Dak Prescott.
The game carries a 55-point total, a full TD more than any other game on the main slate. My first impression is that this game will likely be “accounted for” on most, if not all, rosters I build this week.
Let’s start at the QB where Jayden Daniels is probably the best on paper play at the QB position this week.
Russell Wilson, Caleb Williams, and Jordan Love all posted their best fantasy score of the season against Dallas (29+ points), while Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts each went for 24+ fantasy points.
On the other side, the matchup is also strong for Dak Prescott, who may be getting his top weapon in CeeDee Lamb back.
On the ground, the Commanders have surrendered massive games to Bijan Robinson (181 total yards) and D’Andre Swift (175 total yards), leading Javonte Williams to stand out in this matchup.
Dallas has been a friendly matchup to opposing RBs allowing Josh Jacobs (157 yards), Breece Hall (155 total yards) and Rico Dowdle (239 total yards) to have monster days against them. As such, JCM stands out here on the Washington side of the ball.
Through the air, the Commanders have given up massive days (27+ fantasy points) to Tucker Kraft, Drake London, and Tre Tucker already this season.
The Dallas secondary hasn’t been much more impressive with Malik Nabers, Romeo Doubs, and Wan’Dale Robinson all topping 29 points, while Luther Burden and Garrett Wilson both had 19+ games.
As such, Lamb (if he plays), Pickens, and Ferguson stand out on the Dallas side, where Ertz, Deebo, and McLaurin (if he plays) stand out as pair partners with Jayden Daniels.
That said, I expect tournaments to be decided late in the day as this game finishes on Sunday.
Upon first pass, the DST units that stood out to me were:
KC, DEN, NE, CLE and CAR.
NFL DFS First Look is created by
@wgabelman
and live on
@oneweekseason
each week!
#NFL Week 6 Defence vs. Positional Rankings Cheat Sheets 📊
Here are how each defence stacks up against QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs to help you with all your NFL prop betting this week.
S/O @ShotPropz for help with these sheets 🔥
Any questions? Drop them in the comments below ⬇️
Here's a look at each team's % of offensive TDs to come via pass + their pass rate inside the 10 and 20-yard lines.
Based on this ...
Offenses "due" for more rush TDs:
49ers
Chargers
Buccaneers
Bears
Steelers
Packers
"Due" for more pass TDs:
Jaguars
Chiefs
📊 Week 5 NFL Mismatch Algorithm
This went 21-4 last week!
My model spits out a rating for every player and then I add a suggested prop for you to take, plus the FanDuel odds.
Keep sending in any winners please. 🤝
FREE Tool - Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed
Who has the best fantasy matchups this week?
QB Justin Fields vs. DAL (+10.8 FPG boost)
RB Woody Marks vs. BAL (+11.2)
LWR Garrett Wilson vs. DAL (+13.0)
SWR Jakobi Meyers vs. IND (+4.8)
RWR Josh Reynolds vs. DAL (+8.2)
TE Sam LaPorta vs. DET (+4.6)
Updated QB vs Defence Rankings for Week 4📊
#GoPackGo Love has 2 games under 200 passing yards, but don’t expect that against DAL’s easiest QB matchup 📈
#Saints Rattler has been throwing a ton to start the year, but should struggle this week against BUF’s hardest QB matchup📉
#BroncosCountry Nix hasn’t been great to start the year, but now gets CIN’s 8th easiest QB matchup 👀
Drop a Like/RT if you find this helpful 🤙🏻
S/O @ShotPropz as always for help on these sheets 🔥
Updated RB vs Defence Rankings for Week 4📊
#RaiderNation Jeanty hasn’t really popped yet this season, but that could change this week against CHI’s 2nd easiest RB matchup📈
Never gonna tell you to fade #OnePride Gibbs, but temper expectations against CLE’s hardest RB matchup📉
With the Najee injury, it’s all wheels up for #BoltUp Hampton, who gets NYG’s 5th easiest RB matchup 👀
Drop a Like/RT if you find this helpful 🤙🏻