Vince.

Economics.

[Alec Stapp @AlecStapp]

Government regulation in France:

Above a certain size, building new homes requires a licensed architect.

Outcome:

[Eric Basmajian @EPBResearch]

The private sector hiring rate just hit its lowest level since 2009.

The layoff rate is still below pre-pandemic levels.

Companies are not hiring. But they are not firing either.

This is the "no hire, no fire" economy in four charts:

[Eddy Elfenbein @EddyElfenbein]

Healthcare jobs accounted for 77% of all the new jobs created over the last two years

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

AI's impact on the labor market is no longer theoretical.

In the most AI-exposed industries, job losses are accelerating (especially compared to their pre-AI trend growth).

AI resistant industries continue to add jobs. As the year progresses, expect this wedge to grow.

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

I have been posting repeatedly on X about the extraordinarily fast collapse of births across the planet: in rich and poor countries, in fast-growing and slow-growing economies, in religious and secular societies, under right-wing and left-wing governments, with high taxes and with low taxes. The pattern is universal.

I knew this trend would continue. Still, the figures released this morning left me genuinely speechless. China’s government announced on Monday (see screenshot below) that births in 2025 fell to 7.92 million, a staggering 1.62 million fewer than in 2024, and that the total fertility rate has dropped to 0.93.

Few economists have been more forceful than yours truly in arguing that births are collapsing, yet even I was surprised by these numbers. I was forecasting around 8.5 million births, not 7.92.

To put this into perspective: if China could somehow sustain 7.92 million births per year from now on, its population would eventually stabilize at roughly 625 million, far below today’s 1.405 billion. In reality, as smaller cohorts reach childbearing age, births will fall well below 7.92 million. Hence, 625 million is a very generous upper bound, even under implausibly optimistic assumptions about life expectancy.

Put differently, there were fewer births in China in 2025 than in 1776, the year the United States declared independence.

I am still trying to process these numbers. This is the defining issue of our time.

[Eric Topol @EricTopol]

Generative AI, 3 years in

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

Beef prices look like a memecoin chart lately.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from #Germany, where the wholesale electricity day-ahead price has climbed to €156 per megawatt hour, the highest level since February, as both solar and wind output remain low. To meet demand, Germany is importing 1,989 megawatts of electricity from France.

[Leo @LeoNelissen]

At this pace, meat will soon be a luxury good. Beef, chicken, etc. Inflation is wild.

[The Long View @HayekAndKeynes]

Amazing what an election can do to Fed forecasts…

[The Transcript @TheTranscript_]

$WMT CFO: "...as we replenish inventory at post tariff price levels, we've continued to see our costs increase each week, which we expect will continue into the third and fourth quarters."

[Joseph Wang @josephwang]

Good speech by Ueda on how Japan's aging demographics are driving up wages. Increasing participation rates and retiring at a later age have reached their limits. It's look like the theory that aging demographics is inflationary will be validated.

https://t.co/YyW7JcMySw

[Danny Dayan @DannyDayan5]

Despite 550 bps of hikes, unemployment has never once veered meaningfully away from full employment in 2.5 years.

Inflation has been above target for 4.5 years and is projected for 2 more.

It's not a dual mandate if you favor one over the other, and miss targets for 7 yrs.

[Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 @C_Barraud]

🌎 Third-Hottest July Brings Little Relief From Global Warming - Bloomberg
https://t.co/lZfy5CX0jx

[𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞 @EffMktHype]

this market would just sleep though the titanic and wake up on the floating door

[Parker Lewis @parkeralewis]

This is a wild statement if you think about it

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

Fed projecting inflation to stay above target in 2025, 2026, and 2027

[Stock Talk @stocktalkweekly]

AMAZON $AMZN: IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS, WE EXPECT THAT THE ROLLOUT OF GENERATIVE AI AGENTS WILL REDUCE OUR TOTAL CORPORATE WORKFORCE

[John Brown @john_j_brown]

Circle equity trades at $16b on the NYSE.

Impressive, given that Circle holds less than $500m in tangible equity and had $65m in net income in Q1 2025.

[Michael Brown @MrMBrown]

Rheinmetall to replace Kering in the STOXX 50 - long guns, short handbags