21rti

#USELESS discretionary threador

[21rti @21rTi]

If you don’t own #ETH, you will. The only question is: at what price? Don’t wait till it’s obvious.

[21rti @21rTi]

@TheShortBear brutal

[Isaiah Douglass ⚡️ @IDFinancial]

Every time Bitcoin has recovered 30% from a cycle low, it has never revisited that low. 6 for 6 across 13+ years.

The YTD low of $61,303 (https://t.co/1wyVmU4A1W) to today's ~$79K is a +28.9% recovery. The +30% confirmation level sits at $79,694.

We're at the doorstep.

[21rti @21rTi]

@Cr7Godbrand @MyronGainesX

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Tom Lee's 'BitMine' buys 101,627 $ETH worth $235 million.

[Gordon 🐂 @GordonGekko]

Let me lay out next week.

Because it's going to be BRUTAL.

The Convergence:

🔴 Thursday April 23: Iran ceasefire expires
📊 Wednesday: Fed FOMC minutes
💰 All week: Tech earnings (MSFT, GOOGL, META)
🛢️ Daily: Oil volatility

That's a CATALYST CLUSTERFUCK.

Three scenarios:
A) Bullish (35%): Iran peace deal + Dovish Fed + Strong earnings → Bitcoin $72K to $80K+

B) Bearish (25%): War resumes + Hawkish Fed + Earnings miss → Bitcoin $72K to $65K

C) Chop Hell (40%): Mixed signals, no clear direction → Bitcoin $70-74K torture range

Notice: 75% chance we DON'T go straight up.

Weak hands will:
Panic-sell dips
FOMO-buy spikes
Get chopped to death

I'll:
Buy $68-70K if we dip
Hold $76-78K if we rip
Do nothing if we chop

The survivors: Positioned BEFORE Monday, Sized appropriately, Thesis-driven not news-driven

The casualties: Trading every headline, Over-leveraged, First rodeo syndrome

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

🔥 BIG: Ethereum had its busiest quarter in history, processing 200M transactions in Q1 2026.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: Institutions are buying call options at "fastest pace" in history

[David Marlin @Marlin_Capital]

CTAs are projected to buy $44B+ of US equities over the next week.

This is the 2nd largest buy estimate on record.

The only time it was higher? Late 2023, right before the market ripped higher for 6 straight months.

[21rti @21rTi]

@ThinkingBitmex good point considering how much BTC in general has pumped relative to US equities. The downside was huge on thin liquidity over weekend. Yet barely a small dump. Some big players accumulating non-stop.

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Large Speculators are RECORD net-long Bitcoin.

This breaks the previous record from September 2023, before Bitcoin rallied.

$BTC

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

US equity positioning has fallen to historically low levels:

The US consolidated equity positioning is down to its lowest since May 2025, posting a similar decline as during the first months of the 2022 bear market.

This covers professional investors like fund managers, hedge funds, and algorithm-based trading strategies.

Over the last 15 years, positioning has only been lower 20% of the time.

This comes as discretionary investors like hedge funds and mutual funds have only been this underweight 16% of the time.

At the same time, systematic funds, such as CTAs and volatility-targeting funds, are at levels only seen 23% of the time over the same period.

Investor positioning is so low that any positive catalyst could fuel a sharp market rebound.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Iran is reportedly taking payment in the form of cryptocurrency as a toll for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

[21rti @21rTi]

Large players have already massively deleveraged and dumped risk on the war headlines. Majority are still positioned for more downside or sitting on the sidelines. Meanwhile, markets are at historically oversold levels.

Any credible hint of peace could spark a monster rally — violent short squeeze + FOMO chasing risk back up. I'm long #eth #hype #tao

[Uncommon Sense @Uncommonsince76]

-Lindsey Graham now says to make a deal.

-Trump says to make a deal.

-Mark Levin is saying the war could end in a few weeks…

-Netanyahu is saying Iran is no longer a “threat to Israel….”

-Europe is flipping on Zionism as is east Asia.

-Marco Rubio outlined changes strategic objective to not include opening strait or regime change.

-Trump discusses leaving Iran even without a deal…

-Bill Ackman says to “buy stocks” and
There will be peace.

- America is questioning their jewish overlords and Trump is less popular than ever and no one wants boots on the ground.

-China and Russia are emboldened with sanctions removed.

There’s been a pivot if I had to guess. The U.S. is staring down all of its options and doesn’t like them…. Either that or its cover for a “ground invasion” with the 2500-10,000 possible troops in the region…

Even so, what would that actually accomplish? If you want to physically take Iran, they would need 500k to 1 million troops… if you send in 5k troops and many get slaughtered, public opinion will be even worse.

While before I’ve seen only calls for escalation, everything now points to the U.S. trying to get out of a bad situation…

And trying to get out fast

[21rti @21rTi]

@TheShortBear You give so much alpha and insights for free. Keep up the good work!

[Merlijn The Trader @MerlijnTrader]

MASSIVE:

🇺🇸 The CLARITY Act is done. Lummis confirmed it.

Text dropping next week.
DeFi protected. Stablecoin yield unlocked. Institutional barriers gone.

Years of regulatory uncertainty.
Ended. Next week.

The countdown is no longer months.
It's days.

[21rti @21rTi]

@AorakiTrading @lookonchain @machibigbrother Same mistake over 300+ times:

Taking highly leveraged positions with an extremely tight liquidation level in a VERY Volatile Bear market. At some point, he has to read the market and adapt his style. But this market cannot beat my dawg @machibigbrother into submission😂

[21rti @21rTi]

what happens when the market reverses and these HF's and large institutions are sidelined with little to no exposure. They need to On par with benchmarks for broader indexes.

[The Market Ear @themarketear]

Hedge fund capitulation: the recent US net selling by hedge funds is the third largest over the past decade
https://t.co/tb3ssgcLXr

[Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets]

🚨 The recent net selling by hedge funds is the third largest over the last decade.

Talk about risk-off!

When the dust settles there will be some great opportunities.